General elections poll: PP and Vox would have 33 more seats than the absolute majority and Sánchez would drop to 104, according to Hamalgama

An eventual majority of PP and Vox would not depend on a few deputies. The new poll by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli places both parties at 209 seats, 33 above the 176 that mark an absolute majority in Congress.

The PP would win the general elections with 33.8% of the votes and 146 deputies. Vox would obtain 18.8% and 63 representatives, its best result in this pollster's series.

On the other hand, the PSOE would be at 25.9% and 104 seats. Sumar would achieve 5.9% and seven deputies, while Podemos would reach 3.8% and three representatives.

The sum of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would be 114 seats, 95 less than PP and Vox. In terms of vote percentage, the two right-wing parties would reach 52.6%, compared to 35.6% for the three main state left-wing parties.

PP and Vox would add up to 209 seats

The main finding of the poll is the breadth of the majority that PP and Vox would form.

The PP would reach 146 deputies and Vox 63. Their sum would reach 209, two more than in the previous measurement by Hamalgama Métrica.

The figure places both parties 33 seats above the absolute majority. It also represents an improvement of 39 deputies compared to the general elections of 23J, when the PP obtained 137 and Vox 33.

The difference is not explained solely by the PP's advance. Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party would gain nine deputies, while Vox would incorporate 30, practically doubling its current representation.

The PP would reach 33.8% and 146 deputies

The PP would once again be the leading political force with 33.8% of the votes.

Compared to the general elections of 2023, when it obtained approximately 33.1%, the popular party would improve by seven tenths. The growth in seats would be greater: they would go from 137 to 146.

Feijóo's party would retain 85.9% of its voters from 23J. Its main leakage would occur towards Vox, which would attract 12.5% of those who supported the PP in the last general election.

Vox reaches its maximum in the series

Vox would obtain 18.8% of the votes and 63 seats.

In the general elections of 2023, it achieved 12.4% and 33 deputies. The poll therefore attributes to it an advance of 6.4 points and 30 representatives.

It also appears as the party with the highest electoral loyalty. 93.9% of those who voted for Vox in 23J would repeat their choice now.

Its growth comes both from the high retention of its base and from transfers received from other parties. The poll estimates that it would attract 12.5% of former PP voters and 4.2% of those who supported the PSOE.

The PSOE would be left with 104 seats

The PSOE would obtain 25.9% of the votes and 104 deputies.

The result would mean a loss of 5.8 points compared to the 31.7% of the last general elections. In parliamentary representation, it would go from 121 to 104 seats, 17 fewer.

The PSOE would retain 72.5% of its 2023 electorate. Although it continues to hold more than seven out of ten voters, the poll detects leaks both towards abstention and towards the right-wing bloc.

10.8% of those who voted for the PSOE would now opt for the PP. Another 4.2% would choose Vox and 8.2% would abstain.

Therefore, the socialist setback would not come solely from demobilization. A relevant part of the lost vote would cross over to PP and Vox.

The PP would attract one in ten former socialist voters

The transfer from the PSOE to the PP is one of the most relevant movements in the survey.

According to Hamalgama Métrica, 10.8% of the 2023 socialist electorate would now vote for Feijóo's party. The leak to Vox would be smaller, but also significant: it would reach 4.2%.

This data allows us to distinguish between two types of electoral loss for the PSOE. On the one hand, voters who remain within the left or remain undecided. On the other, those who move directly to a formation located in the opposing bloc. The fact that there are more abstainers than 'leaks' is key for Ferraz.

Sumar would retain only one in three voters

Sumar would obtain 5.9% of the votes and seven seats.

The formation would lose a very important part of the representation achieved in 2023, when the joint candidacy, which also included Podemos, reached 12.3% and 31 deputies.

Only 33.5% of those who voted for Sumar would repeat their ballot now. 27.4% would move to Podemos, 20.4% would opt to abstain, and 14.1% would move to the PSOE.

The main problem for this space would not be a massive transfer to the right, but its dispersion among PSOE, Podemos, and abstention.

Podemos would obtain three deputies

Podemos, measured separately, would achieve 3.8% of the votes and three seats.

The sum of Sumar and Podemos would reach 9.7% and ten deputies. In the 2023 general elections, the space ran united and obtained 12.3% and 31 representatives.

The comparison reflects a joint loss of 2.6 points and 21 deputies. Electoral fragmentation would have an especially intense effect on the distribution of seats by province.

The state left would lose 38 deputies

PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would gather a total of 114 seats.

In the 23J, PSOE and the Sumar candidacy - which then included Podemos - added up to 152. The joint loss would be 38 representatives.

In votes, the bloc would go from approximately 44% in 2023 to the current 35.6%, a decrease of 8.4 points.

Faced with these 114 deputies, PP and Vox would reach 209. The distance between both blocs would be 95 seats.

The PP-Vox bloc gains seven points since 23J

PP and Vox would add up to 52.6% of the valid vote. In the 2023 elections, they jointly reached around 45.5%. The improvement would be 7.1 points.

Conversely, PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would go from the joint 44% of 23J to 35.6%, a drop of 8.4 points.

The difference between both blocs, which in the last general election was approximately 1.5 points, would now rise to 17 points.

62.9% would support holding elections this year

The survey also asks about a possible early call.

62.9% of those interviewed believe that Pedro Sánchez should call general elections during this year, compared to 26.8% who reject that possibility.

Support for the early call is very high among PP and Vox voters. 21.3% of those who voted for PSOE in the last general election also share it.

Among former Sumar voters, the opposite position predominates: 96.7% reject an early election, according to the published data.

The survey asks about the impact of the Zapatero case

The poll also includes a question about investigations related to former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

51.8% believe that the revelations known could end up affecting the President of the Government judicially. 39.2% do not share that prediction.

The responses are highly conditioned by vote recall. 71.4% of the PP electorate and the entirety of Vox's believe that the matter could reach Sánchez, while 81.3% of socialist voters rule it out.

This is a perception of those interviewed and not a judicial conclusion.

Junts and PNV would each lose one seat

The survey also reflects changes among nationalist parties.

Junts would obtain around 367,000 votes and six seats, one less than in the 2023 elections. Its loss would be approximately 28,000 votes.

The PNV would go from five to four deputies. The poll attributes about 220,000 votes to it, about 56,800 less than in the last general election.

Between both parties, they would lose approximately 85,000 votes and two representatives. EH Bildu would retain its six seats, although it would also register a slight reduction in votes.

The setback for Junts and PNV would reduce their ability to influence an investiture, although in the scenario projected by Hamalgama Métrica, PP and Vox would not need additional support.

Vote and Seat Estimation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

* Podemos ran as part of the Sumar candidacy in the 2023 general elections.

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