The futures markets indicate that the wholesale electricity price, the so-called 'pool', in Spain will remain at high levels throughout the rest of 2026. For the fourth quarter of the year, the quotes advance by 16.4%, up to 127.25 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), pressured by the rising cost of gas and uncertainty about maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the annual product for 2027 for Spain, the forecast rises by 15.7%, up to 77.85 euros/MWh. Nevertheless, this value is almost 40 euros below the 117.10 euros/MWh that the futures market assigns to Germany, according to data from the ASE group.
This rise in electricity futures prices is closely linked to the increase in the cost of natural gas. The TTF, the reference for gas in Europe, rose by 15.8% in August, up to 61.46 euros/MWh, its highest monthly record since January 2023.
In the case of Spain, the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) marked an average of 61.87 euros/MWh, which is 12.7% more than in July and 89.6% above the level of August 2025.
The consultancy also highlighted that European gas reserves stood at around 65%, thirteen percentage points less than a year earlier. This slower filling rate forces an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases before winter and keeps the risk balance clearly oriented upwards.
The 'pool', 73% above a year ago
The daily average price of the 'pool' reached 118.25 euros/MWh in August, 12.89% more than in July (104.75 euros/MWh) and 72.8% higher than recorded in August 2025 (68.44 euros/MWh), positioning itself at its highest monthly level since February 2023.
The regulated costs of the system were provisionally estimated at 17.53 euros/MWh and, added to the 'pool', brought the provisional final price of electricity to 135.78 euros/MWh.
The analysts from the consultancy warned that the tension in the gas market, the limitations on LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and the low storage level in Europe "once again place energy risk at the center of the market."
Price difference between solar hours and the rest of the day
In August, the price gap between hours with high solar production and the rest of the day was accentuated, driven by photovoltaics. Between 10:00 and 18:00, coinciding with high photovoltaic generation, the average electricity price was 26.37 euros/MWh, while outside that interval, when gas regained a key role, it skyrocketed to 164.19 euros/MWh.
The successive heat waves also raised electricity demand by 9.78% compared to August 2025. According to group ASE, the average consumption increase in the three summer months reached 11.5%, driven by greater cooling needs.
This surge in demand coincided with a decrease in wind production of 9.6% and nuclear of 7%. To compensate for this lower contribution and maintain system balance, gas combined cycles increased their generation by 29.6%.
Despite this context, Spain continued to register a lower price in its electricity market than other large European countries such as France, Germany, and Italy, where the lower availability of hydraulic, wind, and nuclear energy intensified the tension.
In France, the price increased by 125.6% compared to August 2025 (54.44 euros/MWh), reaching 122.80 euros/MWh. Germany closed the month at 126.94 euros/MWh and Italy marked the highest level, at 182.40 euros/MWh.