The second major survey at the end of August further hardens the electoral picture. Data10, in a survey published by OkDiario, places the PP and Vox at 208 seats, the highest estimate among the latest national polls published after the Ceuta crisis. The PSOE stands exactly at 100 deputies, its lowest record among the main end-of-month surveys.
The fieldwork was carried out on August 26 and 27, almost a month after the start of the Ceuta crisis and at a time when the situation in the city, the relationship with Morocco, and the actions of the Government continued to dominate much of the political agenda.
Feijóo reaches 34.3% and 145 deputies
The PP would win the elections with 34.3% and 145 seats. Feijóo would thus improve the result obtained in the 2023 general elections. Then he achieved 33.1% and 137 deputies. The difference is 1.2 points and eight seats.
The rise does not place the PP close to an own majority, but the strength of Vox turns the sum of both into a very broad absolute majority.
Vox reaches 63 deputies, 30 more than in 2023
The main structural change is again in Vox. Data10 attributes it 18.1% and 63 deputies. In the 23J it obtained 12.4% and 33 representatives. The accumulated growth would be 5.7 points and 30 deputies.
The result practically doubles the representation of Abascal's party and makes its votes essential for any Government led by Feijóo.
PP and Vox go from 170 to 208 seats
The sum is even more significant. PP and Vox obtained 170 deputies in the last general elections, six below the absolute majority. Data10 now attributes them 208. That is 38 seats more than the 23J and 32 above the absolute majority.
In votes, they go from approximately 45.5% to 52.4%, a joint gain of 6.9 points.
The PSOE loses 6.3 points, with Vox approaching 7
The PSOE registers exactly the same 25.4% that Sigma Dos attributes to it in its survey in El Mundo, although Data10 translates that percentage into one seat less. Sánchez would achieve 100 deputies.
Compared to the 31.7% and 121 representatives of the 23J, the loss would amount to 6.3 points and 21 seats. The distance with the PP would be 8.9 points and 45 deputies. And Vox would be only 7.3 points behind the PSOE in national percentage, although still 37 seats away.
The coalition Government remains at 108
Sumar would obtain 6.3% and eight deputies. The sum PSOE-Sumar, the two parties currently forming the Government, would be 108 representatives.
The distance between a possible PP-Vox majority and the two parties of the current Executive would be exactly 100 deputies.
Podemos would obtain separately 3.6% and three representatives. Including it, PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would total 111 seats.
Sumar and Podemos lose 20 deputies compared to 2023
The comparison with the 23J also again highlights the cost of fragmentation. Sumar, which then included Podemos, achieved 12.3% and 31 deputies.
Data10 now attributes to Sumar 6.3% and eight representatives and to Podemos 3.6% and three. Together they would reach 9.9% and 11 deputies.
The accumulated drop would be 2.4 points and 20 seats.
Source: Data10 for OkDiario, published on August 31, 2026
Data10 result in the midst of the Ceuta crisis and comparison with the 23J
Data10 places PP and Vox in an absolute majority of 208 seats. PSOE would remain at 100 deputies and Sumar at eight.
| Party | Vote | Seats | Vs. 23J |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.3% | 145 | +1.2 points | +8 seats |
| PSOE | 25.4% | 100 | -6.3 points | -21 seats |
| Vox | 18.1% | 63 | +5.7 points | +30 seats |
| Sumar | 6.3% | 8 | -6.0 points | -23 seats* |
* In the 23J, Podemos ran integrated in Sumar. Therefore, the comparison of Sumar alone with 2023 should be interpreted with caution.