According to the barometer published today by El Mundo and prepared by Sigma Dos, the crisis in Ceuta coincides with an additional deterioration of the space that supports the Government and a strengthening of the PP-Vox bloc in the series. The previous Sigma Dos survey was conducted between July 6 and July 20, before the crisis of July 30. The new fieldwork was carried out between August 20 and August 26, when Ceuta had already been occupying the center of the political agenda for several weeks.
This does not allow us to conclude that all the changes are caused exclusively by Ceuta, since during that period other political events have occurred. But it does allow us to observe what has happened electorally between the two snapshots of the same pollster.
The before and after Ceuta: PP +0.3, PSOE -0.7, Vox +0.6 and Sumar -0.8
The most negative movement corresponds to Sumar. It goes from 7.4% in July to 6.6% in August, a loss of eight tenths. The PSOE also significantly declines. It drops from 26.1% to 25.4%, seven tenths in a month, and reaches its worst figure in the current Sigma Dos series.
In the opposite direction, Vox rises six tenths, from 17.3% to 17.9%. The PP advances more moderately, from 32.8% to 33.1%, three tenths. Podemos also loses two tenths and goes from 3% to 2.8%. ([Electográfica][1])
The distribution of the movement is important: the PP and Vox grow simultaneously, while PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos all decline.
The gap between blocs increases by 2.6 points in a month
The sum of PP and Vox was at 50.1% in July. Now it reaches 51%.
The movement is even greater in the bloc formed by PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. In July they totaled 36.5%; in August they remain at 34.8%.
Therefore, the distance between both goes from 13.6 points before Ceuta to 16.2 after several weeks of crisis. The gap widens by 2.6 points in just one month.
Sánchez falls to 101 deputies
The socialist loss also appears in the parliamentary estimate. In July, Sigma Dos placed the PSOE in a range of 104 to 109 deputies. Now it attributes 101 to them.
Therefore, the current result is three seats below even the lower end of the previous range and eight below the upper end.
The PP takes the opposite path. In July it was between 138 and 143 deputies and now it gets exactly 143, the maximum of that range.
Vox also reaches the upper end of its previous estimate: it goes from 58-61 to 61 deputies.
Sumar drops from 11-12 to 10 and Podemos maintains a single representative.
The Government goes from a range of 115-121 deputies to 111
The parliamentary translation shows again that the deterioration is not concentrated solely in the PSOE. In July, PSOE and Sumar could gather between 115 and 121 seats according to the ranges of Sigma Dos. In August their sum is 111.
If Podemos is included, the state space of the left reaches only 112 representatives.
PP and Vox, on the other hand, total 204, compared to a range of 196-204 in July.
Vox is the one that improves the most within the right
The PP would win the elections, but the party that registers the greatest monthly movement is Vox. Feijóo gains three tenths. Abascal gains six.
The consequence is that Vox further increases its weight within a potential majority of the right. Its 61 deputies almost double the 33 obtained in the general elections of 2023.
The PP, on the contrary, obtains exactly the same percentage as in the 23J, 33.1%, although the new distribution of the vote would allow it to go from 137 to 143 deputies.
The PSOE loses 6.3 points and 20 deputies since the 23J
The comparison with the last elections allows distinguishing the movement of August from the accumulated deterioration during the legislature.
The PSOE obtained 31.7% and 121 deputies in 2023. Sigma Dos now places it at 25.4% and 101. That is 6.3 points and 20 seats less.
Vox covers practically the inverse distance: it goes from 12.4% to 17.9%, an improvement of 5.5 points, and from 33 to 61 deputies, 28 more.
PP and Vox had jointly 170 seats after the 23J. Now they would reach 204, 34 more.
Sumar and Podemos lose 20 seats compared to the 2023 candidacy
The other major transformation occurs to the left of the PSOE.
Sumar ran in 2023 including Podemos and obtained 12.3% and 31 deputies.
Sigma Dos now measures the two formations separately: Sumar achieves 6.6% and 10 deputies, while Podemos obtains 2.8% and one.
Together they total 9.4% and 11 representatives. Compared to the 23J, the space loses approximately 2.9 points and 20 deputies.
What does the "Ceuta effect" really leave in Sigma Dos
The homogeneous comparison of Sigma Dos leaves four movements:
- PP: +0.3 points.
- PSOE: -0.7.
- Vox: +0.6.
- Sumar: -0.8.
- Podemos: -0.2.
By blocks, PP and Vox gain nine tenths and PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos lose 1.7 points. The distance widens by 2.6.
Source: ElMundo/Sigma Dos (published on August 31, 2026)
This is how the Sigma Dos survey changes after the Ceuta crisis
The comparison with the previous Sigma Dos survey shows an advance of PP and Vox and a setback of PSOE and Sumar.
In seats, the popular party reaches the ceiling of its previous range and the socialists fall below the minimum they recorded in July, with a very clear rise of Vox.
| Party | Vote | Seats | Vs. previous Sigma Dos | Vs. 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33.1% | 143 | +0.3 points | between 0 and +5 seats | 0.0 points | +6 seats |
| PSOE | 25.4% | 101 | -0.7 points | between -3 and -8 seats | -6.3 points | -20 seats |
| Vox | 17.9% | 61 | +0.6 points | between 0 and +3 seats | +5.5 points | +28 seats |
| Sumar | 6.6% | 10 | -0.8 points | between -1 and -2 seats | -5.7 points | -21 seats* |
* In the 23J, Podemos ran integrated in the Sumar candidacy, which jointly obtained 12.3% and 31 seats.