The Executive has put on the table that an "abrupt" influx of data centers into the electrical system could bring about "undesirable consequences" both in the price of electricity and in the associated CO2 emissions of the 'generation mix'.
According to the impact assessment report for the draft Royal Decree project that sets requirements for energy, environmental, resilience, and digital sovereignty sustainability for data centers, to which Europa Press has gained access and which has already been submitted to the Council of State after the public information phase, it is calculated that the incorporation of 10 gigawatts (GW) of data center power in 2030, versus a scenario of 1 GW, would imply "an increase in the operation of combined cycles (+107%), in the total variable cost of generation (+200%), and in CO2 emissions (+65%)".
The document, drawn up jointly by the ministries for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, for the Economy, Trade and Enterprise, and for Digital Transformation and the Civil Service, emphasizes that, given the load profile of this type of consumption, without a specific regulatory framework it would be inevitable to rely more heavily on combined cycles when there is less availability of renewable resources.
That greater number of operating hours of gas power plants would translate into more greenhouse gas emissions and into a higher cost of electricity, by incorporating the cost of natural gas and the emission rights necessary to operate conventional thermal units.
The report concludes that these results "show the adverse effects derived from an uncontrolled rollout" of data centers in Spain if a specific regulatory framework is not approved.
The Government warns that the expected increase in the total variable cost of generation "would have a negative impact on consumers as a whole and the increase in emissions could jeopardize the climate and decarbonization targets of the Kingdom of Spain".
Renewable additionality and hourly correlation
To avoid these impacts, the Executive proposes a obligations scheme based on additionality and hourly correlation. In order for data centers not to displace clean energy consumption from the rest of the economy or push up the electricity bill, it will be required that 80% of their demand be covered with new renewable generation, either through self-consumption or through long-term PPA contracts with a minimum term of six years with installations with an age of no more than 36 months.
In addition, it is established that, in each hour, at least 80% of the energy consumed is backed by electricity of renewable origin produced or disbursed in that same time frame, allowing the use of storage systems, whether hybridized or independent. With this, the aim is to involve this technological demand in the hours of greatest scarcity or tension in the system.
In the memorandum, advanced by 'El País', the Executive argues that additionality is essential to "avoid that an accelerated rollout of data centers takes away from other consumers, whether industrial, commercial or residential, and in a large number of cases with less purchasing power or competitive capacity than data centers, the possibility of taking advantage of the clean and competitive energy that renewable generation in the Spanish electricity system entails".
To prevent regulatory loopholes from being sought, the draft of the Royal Decree incorporates a system of progressive surcharges on network charges and system charges. In the event of failing to meet hourly correlation and additionality quotas, the surcharges will range from 10% up to 500% of the cost of network charges, and the amount collected will be returned to the electricity system to compensate all consumers.
The most serious or repeated noncompliance will be punished with the loss of access and connection permits. "The loss of permits is reserved for cases of significant and repeated renewable noncompliance and for resolutions that bring the administrative pathway to an end" issued in matters of digital sovereignty or efficiency, the text states.
With the entry into force of the new framework, a six-month window is opened for voluntary renunciation so that promoters with granted or in-progress permits who do not want to assume the new obligations may withdraw without executing the economic guarantees deposited with the network managers.
Transitional formulas are also considered, such as the gradual incorporation through the Automatic Power Reduction System (SRAP) over five years, and a specific regime for European strategic projects linked to digital sovereignty.
In terms of water, stringent standards for energy and water efficiency are set, aligned with class 'A' of the future European labeling for data centers. New projects will have to reach that level after a six-month adaptation period from the start of their operation.
Oversized permits versus projections
In the report, the Government warns that access and grid connection permits have already been granted for a volume more than three times the most optimistic scenarios for data center capacity forecast for 2030.
Over the last six years, more than 12 gigawatts (GW) of capacity have been authorized between the transmission system operator and the distribution companies, a level that contrasts with the 2024 Artificial Intelligence Strategy, which only envisaged between 3.5 and 4 GW of computing electricity demand by the end of the decade.
The Executive’s aim is to approve this specific regulation for data centers before the elections of November 29, despite the sector’s outright rejection. The employers’ association Spain DC calls for regulations that are “proportionate, technically feasible and aligned with the European framework, avoiding that new requirements could place Spain at a disadvantage compared with other member countries”.