The Alliance for the Competitiveness of the Spanish Industry has revised upward, to as much as 8.9 billion euros, the calculation of the energy surcharge that the manufacturing industry will bear until the end of 2026 due to the crisis in the Middle East. This new estimate amounts to about 1.5 billion more than that made in September and comes with a request for urgent measures to avoid plant shutdowns and job cuts.
The new scenario implies an increase close to 20% compared with the 7.4 billion originally forecast and is broken down into roughly 4.9 billion euros in additional costs on the gas bill and another 4.0 billion in the electricity bill, the organization detailed this Friday in a statement.
The Alliance spokesperson, Carlos Reinoso, has warned that the situation is deteriorating "at a faster pace than expected" and has emphasized that companies will have to absorb this rise in a context of strong international competition. "Spain needs an urgent response to prevent this energy crisis from ultimately compromising investments, industrial activity, and employment," he said.
The entity’s projections are based on the evolution of gas quotes on the TTF market, electricity on the Spanish market, and the adjustment services of the electricity system, together with industrial consumption data and futures prices available as of 1 November. The Alliance stresses that this is a potential impact, conditioned on how the markets behave in the coming months.
Sharp drop in industrial gas consumption
The organization has also drawn attention to the decline in industrial gas consumption, which fell by 9.4% in September compared with the same month of the previous year, according to the Enagás Index of Major Gas Consumers cited in the note. If compared with the average for the 2018-2021 period, the drop reaches 31% in September and 27% in the year-to-date total.
According to the Alliance, this slump has not been offset by an equivalent increase in the use of electricity or other decarbonized energy sources. "All of this points to the fact that a significant part of the adjustment responds to demand destruction and lower industrial activity," Reinoso said.
With regard to prices, the entity places the TTF gas average in October at 86.6 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), compared with 32.4 euros in February. In the electricity market, it calculates an average price of 166 euros/MWh in October, with a daily average maximum of 244.7 euros/MWh on the 30th.
Six proposals to make energy cheaper
Against this backdrop, the Alliance has called for the implementation of an aid mechanism that compensates gas-intensive companies for the exceptional surge in prices, similar to that deployed after the invasion of Ukraine. To do so, it urges the Government to request from European institutions the extension and adaptation of the temporary State aid framework for the crisis in the Middle East, whose validity, it recalls, expires on 31 December.
On the tax front, the organization proposes reducing the Special Tax on Electricity to 0.5% and keeping that rate stable for industry, in addition to bringing forward to 1 January 2027 the cut to zero of the Tax on the Production of Electric Energy, instead of the 2028 date currently contemplated.
It also proposes partial compensations for the costs of the system adjustment services of the electricity system or, failing that, shifting technical restrictions to the tolls. According to the data handled by the Alliance, the average cost of these services since the beginning of the year is 22.46 euros/MWh, with an accumulated amount of 4,570 million euros and a projection close to 5,400 million euros up to December.
The package of requests is completed with the extension, at least until 2027, of the 80% reduction in tolls for electro-intensive consumers and with an increase in the budget allocated to compensating the costs of indirect CO2 up to the maximum allowed by Community regulations. The Alliance also proposes that both instruments have a structural nature.
"Spanish industry cannot, on its own, cope with an increase in costs of this magnitude while our main European competitors have stronger and more permanent support mechanisms," Reinoso has emphasized.
The Alliance brings together AICE, Anfac, Aspapel, Feique, FIAB, Oficemen, Primigea, Sernauto and Unesid, which represent branches such as fuels, the automotive industry, paper, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, cement, mineral raw materials, automotive components and steelmaking.