The Banco Sabadell Analysis team anticipates a market reaction without "relevant surprises" or major movements in Aena's share price, after confirming that the accounts released early in the morning are, in general terms, in line with what was expected, despite a slight downward deviation in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) caused by extraordinary items.
In a report sent to its clients, the analysis firm notes that the results corresponding to the first nine months of 2026 respect the usual seasonality of the airport operator, as they represent 76% of the Ebitda and net profit estimated for the full year.
For this reason, Sabadell specialists do not expect "relevant revisions" in the projections handled by the market consensus.
Between July and September, Aena posted net profit of 772.8 million euros (+12.7%), a growth somewhat more contained than the +15% that analysts on average had been expecting.
At the same time, Ebitda reached 1.279 billion euros (+7.5% versus the consensus +7.8%), pressured by the narrowing of margins stemming from the increase in costs and by several non-recurring items.
If these extraordinary factors are set aside, the quarterly Ebitda would have advanced 9.7%, in line with the forecasts of the main analysis houses.
Revenue and strength of the commercial business
On the revenue side, quarterly turnover stood at close to 1.984 billion euros (+10.9%), supported by the solid performance of the aeronautical division (+11.2%), driven both by the increase in passenger traffic (+4.6%) and by the rise in fees per passenger (+6.3% since March).
The commercial branch also met projections (+8.2%), while international activity recorded an increase of 19.1%.
In this regard, the analysts stress that the commercial tenders awarded up to September provide high "visibility to growth" for the 2027-2028 period, thanks to strong increases in guaranteed minimum rents (RMGA) both in catering (+11% in 2027 and +32% in 2028) and in specialty stores (+80% and +82%, respectively).
Forecasts, recommendation and target price
As for operating prospects, Aena has reiterated its forecast to end the year with an increase in traffic of 3% compared with 2025.
From Banco Sabadell they describe this guide as "conservative," as it would imply a decrease of -0.6% in the number of passengers during the fourth quarter.
Pending the management team and the Investor Relations department resuming usual contact with analysts, after the cancellation of the in-person meeting due to mourning resulting from the Toledo accident, Banco Sabadell maintains its recommendation to 'underweight' the stock and keeps its target price at 25.70 euros per share.