General elections in Spain

Michavila (GAD3) foresees a change of Government on November 29 but warns: Sánchez could be the first force

The president of GAD3 considers that Feijóo will arrive at the elections with the PP on the rise, while Abascal will hold the key to governability. The PSOE is regaining ground at the expense of its partners, a strategy that, according to the sociologist, could end up harming Sánchez's chances of continuing in La Moncloa.

Michavila

By Demócrata

Published

27 OCT, 2026 - 12:44

Last updated

27 OCT, 2026 - 12:44

5 minutes

The president of GAD3, Narciso Michavila, forecasts a change of Government after the general elections on the next November 29, although he warns that the electoral recovery of the PSOE and the mobilization of leftist voters may narrow the gap between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo. In an interview, the sociologist has analyzed the main trends he detects ahead of the elections, with a Popular Party on the rise compared to previous weeks, Vox on track to double its parliamentary representation, and a PSOE that manages to regain support at the expense of the formations in its political space.

“I do not rule out that Sánchez has more votes than Feijóo”, Michavila has assured, who distinguishes between the result in votes and the distribution of seats that will determine the formation of the next Executive. In his opinion, the president of the Government is managing to concentrate the leftist vote around the PSOE, although that same strategy could reduce the representation of his potential allies and hinder a new parliamentary majority.

The president of GAD3 believes that the electoral outcome will be especially conditioned by the evolution of Catalonia, where he anticipates growth for ERC, a loss of representation for the space led by Ada Colau, and a joint advance of PP and Vox that could be decisive for governability.

Vox will double its seats, but Michavila believes it will be difficult to reach 18% of the votes

According to Michavila, the evolution of Vox compared to the previous elections is very noteworthy, although the sociologist notes a slowdown in its growth during the last weeks. “Vox doubles seats, but it no longer rises like in September, it will be difficult to reach 18”, he pointed out.

His diagnosis points to a consolidation of Santiago Abascal's party as an essential actor for a potential right-wing majority, even if it ultimately does not meet the higher expectations that had been generated in recent months.

In fact, Michavila believes that the Vox leader has already achieved one of his main political objectives before the opening of the polls. “Abascal has already won because governability will depend on him”, he stated, referring to his party's ability to condition the investiture and the composition of the next Executive if a parliamentary majority of PP and Vox is confirmed.

Meanwhile, the Popular Party would have regained electoral momentum. “The PP is rising, it is on the rise”, highlighted the president of GAD3, who also identifies an advantage for the popular among voters who consider themselves ideologically centrist.

According to his analysis, the PP is currently the leading force among these voters, followed by Vox, while the PSOE would occupy the third position. A distribution that, if confirmed at the polls, would reflect the difficulties of the socialists to compete for certain segments of the moderate electorate.

The PSOE recovers useful votes, but weakens the possibilities of its allies

Michavila has also identified a change in trend among progressive voters, where he sees a growing mobilization and a recovery of the PSOE that contrasts with the difficulties of the formations to its left.

“The left is mobilizing”, he pointed out, before emphasizing that Sánchez's party is successfully appealing to useful votes. Consequently, the president of GAD3 rules out that the socialists are headed towards the electoral collapse that some forecasts had anticipated.

“Sánchez is not sinking”, he stated, although he believes that the recovery of the PSOE contains a contradiction from the standpoint of governability. For the sociologist, the socialists are absorbing support from their potential parliamentary partners and that concentration of votes may end up reducing the chances of reestablishing a leftist majority.

“The PSOE is cannibalizing its left, the more the PSOE rises, the less chance it has of staying in government”, he explained.

The key lies in the functioning of the Spanish electoral system, where the provincial distribution of seats can penalize candidacies that do not achieve sufficient representation in certain constituencies. Thus, a transfer of votes from minor parties to the PSOE is not a guarantee that the entire progressive bloc will retain all its deputies.

Michavila interprets this strategy as Sánchez's bet to maintain the hegemony of the progressive space even in the face of the possibility of losing the Executive. “Sánchez's strategy is to strengthen himself in the opposition, that is why his strategy is to take over his left and it is working well for him”, he assured.

Catalonia can decide the change of Government, with Rufián on the rise against the decline of Colau

The president of GAD3 places special importance on Catalonia, where he anticipates electoral movements that, according to his interpretation, are still not fully reflected in the published polls.

One of the main beneficiaries would be Gabriel Rufián, whose growth he attributes to the capture of voters coming from both the space of Ada Colau and the PSC.

“Rufián is having an enormous rise that the polls still do not capture at the expense of Colau, who is left with two seats, and of the PSC”, he has pointed out.

Michavila believes that these movements will have direct consequences on Sánchez's chances of continuing in La Moncloa. “Just with the change of seats that is going to happen in Catalonia, Sánchez already loses the Government”, he has stated.

This redistribution of the progressive and independentist vote would be joined by the growth of right-wing forces. The president of GAD3 estimates that PP and Vox will jointly obtain at least four more deputies in Catalonia than in the general elections of 2023, an advance that could alter the parliamentary balance on a national scale.

In the case of the Popular Party, Michavila attributes part of the better electoral prospects to the projection of Xavier García Albiol, mayor of Badalona, whose popularity he considers an asset for the Catalan populars.

“The PP will be above Vox in Catalonia thanks to Albiol, which is already being seen as a success”, he has affirmed.

Housing and those under 45, keys to political change

Beyond the evolution of the parties, Michavila identifies access to housing as one of the determining factors for the electoral outcome of November 29, especially among young people and middle-aged individuals who find it difficult to emancipate.

“There is going to be a change of Government because there are two million people under 45 who demand that housing be built”, has assured the president of GAD3, who links residential discontent with a growing demand for political change.

Precisely, the housing crisis was one of the reasons that precipitated the electoral call, in a context of mobilizations by the Tenants' Union, protests against evictions, and growing social pressure following the case of Maricarmen Abascal, whose eviction and subsequent death intensified the demands for the right to housing.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What is the status of the parliamentary processing of the latest Housing Law in Spain?

The latest comprehensive state housing law is Law 12/2023, of May 24, on the right to housing, and its parliamentary processing has already ended: it is approved, published, and in force since 2023. As of October 27, 2026, this law should not be confused with subsequent proposals to amend it nor with housing royal decrees, which have different procedures and situations.

When its processing ended

The law originated as a Government project and went through both chambers during the XIV Legislature. The main milestones were as follows:

February 1, 2022: the Council of Ministers approved the project and sent it to the Cortes.
April 27, 2023: the Plenary of the Congress approved the text, processed by the urgency procedure. The agreement and the approved text were published on May 8 in the Congress bulletin.
May 17, 2023: the Senate approved it without modifications, culminating the parliamentary approval. The Senate file can be consulted.
May 25, 2023: the law was published in the Official State Gazette. Its general entry into force occurred the following day, although some provisions had later application dates.

This sequence also appears in the official explanation from Moncloa. Therefore, no approval from the Congress or Senate remains pending for Law 12/2023 to be a fully approved law.

What happened with subsequent reforms

Subsequent initiatives are different procedures: their rejection or expiration does not mean that the 2023 law has failed or ceased to exist.

Amendment of Law 12/2023, file 122/000251: its text was published on January 30, 2026. The Congress rejected starting its processing on September 15; the rejection was published on September 21. Therefore, it did not proceed to the examination and modification of the articles in committee (publication of the rejection).
Administrative and procedural measures on urban planning and housing, file 122/000253: the text was published on February 13, 2026, and the Congress agreed to process it on April 21. Then the amendment period opened, which had ten extensions, until September 30. Without definitive approval, it expired with the dissolution of the Cortes on October 6 (processing agreement; dissolution of the Cortes).
Prevention of speculation and guarantees of housing as a social good, file 122/000102: published on May 31, 2024, it was pending the Plenary's decision on whether to start processing it. It also expired on October 6, 2026 (text of the proposal).

Validity does not mean original text intact

The law remains the state reference framework but has received modifications and partial annulments. Among the latter are the rulings of the Constitutional Court 79/2024 and 26/2025. Additionally, the Royal Decree-Law 29/2026, of October 6, introduced subsequent changes. To know the applicable obligations, the consolidated text in the BOE should be consulted, not only the original wording.

In conclusion: the Housing Law is not awaiting parliamentary approval. That phase concluded in May 2023; what followed are reforms, judicial decisions, and complementary measures that must be examined separately.

What are the powers and main responsibilities of Pedro Sánchez as President of the Government according to the Spanish Constitution?

According to the 1978 Spanish Constitution, the President of the Government is the highest political authority of the Executive Power and the center of direction of governmental action. His powers combine political, legal, and institutional coordination functions. Below is a summary of the main ones, as derived from the Constitution itself and the logic of the Spanish parliamentary system.

1. Direction of Government action

The core function of the president is to "direct the action of the Government." This implies:

Setting the broad lines of general policy (economic, social, foreign, security, etc.).
Coordinating the different ministers and resolving conflicts between departments.
Guaranteeing the unity of government criteria before the Cortes Generales, other institutions, and public opinion.
Promoting or halting bills, plans, and strategic programs.

In practice, the Council of Ministers deliberates and decides collegially, but the president sets priorities and exercises predominant political leadership.

2. Relationship with the King and appointment of the Government

Within the framework of the parliamentary monarchy, the president is the King's central political interlocutor:

He is appointed by the King after being invested by the Congress of Deputies.
He proposes to the King the appointment and dismissal of other Government members (vice presidencies and ministries).
He countersigns most of the King's acts related to the Government, assuming political responsibility for them.

This means that the specific configuration of the Government (number and type of ministries, distribution of portfolios, etc.) politically depends on the president, within constitutional limits.

3. Responsibility before the Congress and confidence mechanisms

The president is politically accountable to the Congress of Deputies and maintains a relationship of confidence articulated through several mechanisms:

Vote of confidence: he can raise it so that the Congress ratifies its support for government policy or a program or general policy statement.
Motion of censure: although initiated by the Congress, its eventual approval implies the dismissal of the president and his replacement by the alternative candidate.
Ordinary parliamentary control: the president must submit to questions, interpellations, and debates in the Congress and, if applicable, in the Senate.

Pedro Sánchez's tenure as president therefore depends on maintaining a sufficient or at least tolerant majority in the Congress.

4. Powers over the Cortes Generales

The Constitution assigns the president a key role in the life of the Chambers:

Proposal to dissolve the Cortes: he can propose to the King the dissolution of the Congress, the Senate, or both Chambers, which leads to the calling of general elections, with established limits (for example, not during a motion of censure in process).
Calling a consultative referendum: he can propose to the King to submit to a consultative referendum of all citizens political decisions of special significance.

These powers give him great capacity to modulate political and electoral timing.

5. Normative and executive functions

As head of the Government, the president promotes the exercise of normative and executive power:

He directs the drafting of bills that the Government submits to the Cortes Generales.
He guides the approval of royal decrees and other regulatory provisions that develop laws.
He supervises the execution of laws and the application of public policies by the General State Administration.

Although norms are formally approved by the Council of Ministers, the initiative and political orientation largely come from the president.

6. Defense, security, and foreign policy

The Constitution configures the Government, under the president's direction, as responsible for the defense of the State and the direction of internal and external policy:

He directs defense and security policy, in coordination with the competent ministry and the Armed Forces.
He leads foreign policy, relations with other States and international organizations, and Spain's position in the European Union.
He can propose to the King the declaration of states of alarm, exception, and siege, under constitutional terms.

7. Territorial coordination

In an autonomous State, the President of the Government also:

Leads political relations with autonomous presidents and governments of autonomous communities.
Participates in or convenes sectoral conferences and high-level territorial cooperation forums.
Must ensure respect for the Constitution and the balance of powers between the State and autonomous communities.

Overall, the powers assigned by the Constitution to the President of the Government make Pedro Sánchez the main person responsible for the country's political orientation, Executive cohesion, parliamentary stability, and the State's highest interlocution both internally (Cortes, autonomies, citizens) and externally (other States and international organizations).

Could you explain in detail the constitutional procedure for the investiture of the President of the Government in Spain? What specific controls can the Congress exercise over the President of the Government and his political action? How are powers constitutionally distributed between the President of the Government and the Council of Ministers?

What results did the Popular Party obtain in the last general elections held in Spain?

The Popular Party won the last general elections held in Spain, on July 23, 2023, being the candidacy with the most votes and deputies. It obtained 137 seats in the Congress, but did not reach a sufficient majority for Alberto Núñez Feijóo to be invested President of the Government. In the Senate, it achieved an absolute majority.

Results in the Congress

The figures of the consolidated result for the PP were as follows, according to electoral information collected by Antena 3 and the summary from El Confidencial:

Votes: 8,091,840.
Vote percentage: 33.05%, approximately one in three votes.
Deputies: 137 of the 350 that make up the Congress.
Position: first electoral and parliamentary force.

The definitive figure to describe its representation is, therefore, 137 deputies. Some reports on election night still recorded 136 seats before the consolidated result was completed. That difference explains why both numbers can be found in news published at different times during the count. (Electoral results).

Comparison with previous general elections

The result represented an increase of 48 deputies compared to the November 2019 elections: the PP went from 89 to 137 representatives. Thus, it recovered representation and ended as the force with the most seats, although that advance did not translate into the formation of a Government led by its candidate. (Comparison with 2019).

To put its advantage over the second party into context, the PSOE obtained 121 deputies. The difference was 16 seats in favor of the PP. That definitive distribution of the 2023 elections also appears in electoral comparisons by Demócrata.

Why did it not govern?

The key was the arithmetic of the Congress. The absolute majority is set at 176 deputies, so the PP lacked 39 seats to reach it alone. The 33 deputies of Vox, added to the 137 of the PP, gave 170: six less than that threshold. (Distribution of 23J).

Feijóo was tasked with trying to form a Government but did not achieve investiture. Subsequently, Pedro Sánchez was invested president in November 2023. Therefore, it is important to distinguish two different results: the PP won the elections, but its candidate was not elected president. (Result and Government formation).

Result in the Senate

In the Upper Chamber, the PP obtained 120 of the 208 senators directly elected at the polls and achieved an absolute majority. It is important not to confuse that electoral result with the 144 senators that some reports attribute to its total representation by adding those appointed by the autonomous communities: not all come from the July 23 vote. (Senate results).

In summary, the PP's balance was a victory in votes and deputies, 137 seats in the Congress and an absolute majority in the Senate, but without sufficient support to bring Feijóo to the Presidency of the Government.

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What electoral scenario does Narciso Michavila foresee for the general elections on November 29?

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Which party, according to Michavila's analysis, would double its parliamentary representation compared to the previous elections?

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