The PP remains first, but loses ground while PSOE and Vox improve their percentages. The new NC Report survey for La Razón attributes to the popular party between 141 and 143 deputies, five less at both ends than the 146–148 from the early October release.
The PSOE recovers eight tenths and reaches 25.8%. Vox registers the same increase and reaches 19%. The socialist improvement narrows the distance between the two major parties, but Abascal's growth maintains a right-wing majority situated between 205 and 209 seats.
The survey, conducted between October 22 and 24, places the PP at 32.9%, down from the previous 34.1%. Its lead over the PSOE decreases from 9.1 to 7.1 points: two points less.
The PP retreats and Vox gains weight within the right
The popular decline does not fully translate into a loss of joint support for the right. The PP drops 1.2 points, while Vox gains eight tenths. Together they go from 52.3% to 51.9%.
In representation, Vox improves from a range of 61–64 deputies to another of 64–66. The PSOE goes from 98–102 to 100–102: it raises its minimum but maintains the maximum. Therefore, it would not be correct to attribute a closed gain of two deputies.
The arithmetic sum of the previous ranges of PP and Vox was 207–212; now it is 205–209. Both place the two formations above the absolute majority, although these extremes do not constitute a statistical confidence interval nor necessarily simultaneous scenarios.
The new projection leaves PP and Vox between 29 and 33 representatives above the 176 needed. An eventual investiture would still depend on both parties agreeing to support it.
Almost 18% of former PSOE voters would choose PP or Vox
The transfer matrix estimates that 10.6% of those who voted for PSOE in 2023 would now choose PP and 7.3% would lean towards Vox. In total, 17.9%.
The data describes the declared preferences of that electorate within the study. It does not mean that those votes are definitively lost nor does it allow for the transfer to be converted into an electoral result by itself.
The socialists would retain 69.6% of their voters from 2023 and capture 20.2% of those who then supported Sumar. This influx of support helps explain how PSOE can improve compared to the previous survey and, at the same time, remain below its result in the last general elections.
Vox also receives more votes from PP than it returns
The movement within the right favors Abascal. According to NC Report, 13.5% of PP voters in 2023 would now choose Vox. Conversely, 6.9% of former Vox voters would opt for the popular party.
These percentages have different bases and should not be directly subtracted. The conversion published to voters places the balance of the exchange around 892,000 votes in favor of Vox.
Abascal's party also presents the highest loyalty among the three main forces: 88.9%, compared to 81.9% for the PP and 69.6% for the PSOE.
Frente Amplio improves and Podemos loses ground
The comparison with the beginning of October shows opposite movements to the left of the PSOE. Frente Amplio obtains 6.6% and between eight and nine deputies, compared to 5.3% and the six to eight representatives that the previous delivery attributed to Sumar.
Podemos drops from 3.9% to 2.6% and goes from a range of two to four deputies to a single seat. The sum of the percentages of both candidacies remains at 9.2%, although its distribution changes.
Adelante Andalucía adds 1.3% and three deputies. The three brands gather 10.5% and between 12 and 13 representatives.
Against the 23J, growth is concentrated in Vox
The PP obtained 137 deputies in the last general elections. The new projection grants it between four and six more, despite placing it slightly below its percentage at that time.
Vox would go from 33 to 64–66 representatives: between 31 and 33 additional. The PSOE, for its part, would drop from 121 to 100–102, a loss of between 19 and 21.
PP and Vox would add between 35 and 39 deputies more than the 170 obtained jointly in the 23J. Most of that parliamentary growth would correspond to Vox.
The weekly comparison depicts a weaker PP and a somewhat stronger PSOE. The comparison with the 2023 ballots continues to show a considerable advantage for the right, mainly driven by Abascal.
HTML table of seats and comparison with the 23J: