The gas bill under the Last Resort Tariff (TUR) will register an increase of more than 50% starting next Thursday, October 1, if the Government does not introduce last-minute changes to the anti-crisis decree that it plans to approve on Tuesday in the Council of Ministers.
According to calculations by the Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU), the regulated gas bill could rise by around 54% from Thursday, which would imply an additional expenditure of about 310 euros per year for an average household with gas heating.
However, estimates from the energy comparator Hello Watt suggest that the price of gas in the TUR could skyrocket by up to 71.5% from that date. In that scenario, a household with gas heating would pay around 222 euros between October and December, compared to 149 euros for the same period in 2025.
The OCU expects that, in the quarterly review set for this October 1, the cost of gas consumption for users subscribed to the TUR 2 modality (between 5,000 and 15,000 kilowatt-hours annually) will rise from 4.12 to about 6.95 cents per kWh, which represents an increase of nearly 69% in the price of energy.
Thus, for a household with gas heating and an annual consumption of 9,000 kWh, the annual bill would rise from about 600 euros to around 910 euros.
Although the increase in energy costs is close to 69%, the consumer organization warns that the final rise in the bill will be 54% due to the weight of the meter rental, taxes, and fixed charges.
The OCU attributes this sharp increase to the very calculation system of the regulated tariff. In the last quarter of the year, the so-called seasonal gas becomes more relevant, accounting for almost 47% of the procurement cost. With gas futures at high levels, the cost of the raw material will practically double.
Moreover, this Thursday marks the beginning of the new gas year, with the consequent update of regulated tolls and charges, although its influence on the increase will be limited, according to the OCU.
The formula used by the Government to set the regulated tariff only incorporates the price of gas in the reviews of October and January. In the spring and summer months, only the oil price is used as a reference, which means that the increase in gas "has remained invisible" in the TUR until now, according to Hello Watt.
In this way, on October 1, the price at which gas intended for the cold months is acquired in international markets enters the formula for the first time since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, with a weight of 46.7% in the calculation. Furthermore, it does so at more than double its value from a year ago: 78.9 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), compared to the 33 euros/MWh of October 2025.
This increase is compounded by more expensive oil, with an average of 99.4 dollars per barrel of Brent in the last six months, and a weaker euro, at 1.152 dollars per euro, factors that also push up the price of gas.
According to the energy comparator, the component that would increase the most in October would be the cost of the gas itself, which could rise by up to 111.3%, compared to the 22.6% recorded in October 2024 and the 25% of 2025. The rest of the price, corresponding to the use of the gas network, would hardly vary, so the total price of the kilowatt hour (kWh) could rise by up to 71.5%, according to Hello Watt's calculations.
As a result, the price of the kWh of gas (variable term, excluding taxes or fixed part) could reach 7.07 cents for households with gas heating starting Thursday, above the 6.75 cents of January 2023, so far the historical maximum. With no legal limit, the increase expected for this October would be the largest ever applied to the TUR, according to the comparator's estimates.
Díaz and the unions demand reactivating the Iberian exception
In this context, the second vice president of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, along with the unions CCOO and UGT, have demanded that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business reactivate the so-called Iberian exception, the mechanism that Spain already used during the energy crisis derived from the war in Ukraine to contain gas prices.
Spain and Portugal applied the Iberian exception, with the approval of the European Union, from June 15, 2022, to December 31, 2023. This temporary tool, whose recovery is now requested by Díaz and the trade unions, limited the price of gas with the aim of reducing the bill for consumers whose rates were directly linked to the daily price of the wholesale electricity market.
With the Iberian exception in force, although the power plants acquired gas at its real cost in the market –which in the worst moments of the crisis exceeded 100 and 200 euros per megawatt hour–, when offering their electricity in the wholesale auction they had to calculate their price as if the gas had only cost them the value of the current cap. The difference between the real price and that limit was compensated to the plants through a specific surcharge on the bills.
The electricity companies reject recovering the gas cap
Although the final decision corresponds to the Ministry of Economy led by Carlos Cuerpo, the electricity sector has already expressed its rejection of reinstating the Iberian exception, arguing that the scenario derived from the current geopolitical situation "is very different" from that experienced at the beginning of the Ukraine war.
The Association of Electric Energy Companies (Aelec), which groups companies such as Endesa, Iberdrola, or EDP Spain, recently recalled that this temporary mechanism to limit the price of gas "was born as an extraordinary response to an extraordinary situation and under specific conditions established by Europe."
According to this employers' association, during the time the mechanism was active, approximately a year and a half between 2022 and the end of 2023, there was "an abrupt and unpredictable shock," with gas "setting the price of electricity in around 75% of the hours," while now it does so in less than 15%.
"Precisely for that reason, despite the tensions in gas, the electricity market is registering much more competitive prices. It makes no sense to respond to a gas crisis by intervening in an electricity market that is functioning and is the one cushioning its impact," they point out from Aelec.
In their analysis, reactivating the Iberian exception would imply that a very large majority of consumers, those in the free market and largely with fixed prices, "bear a higher cost to reduce the price for consumers directly exposed to the market."
That is to say, Aelec believes that it could end up raising the cost for 75% of users to lower it for the remaining 25%, something that, in their opinion, should be weighed before intervening in the market. The association argues that the appropriate thing would be to apply specific and well-targeted measures to the most affected consumers, while maintaining the functioning of the electricity market and legal security.
The OCU calls for calm and to review the free market
Despite the strong increase expected in the regulated bill, the OCU urges consumers not to abandon the TUR hastily. In their view, the regulated rate remains, in general, more advantageous than the free market, with savings of at least 22% compared to the best fixed price offers and over 40% compared to many commercial rates.
However, the organization recommends reviewing in detail the offers from the free market starting in October, as some fixed rates could become more competitive if the increase in the TUR is ultimately confirmed.
To evaluate these alternatives, the OCU advises paying attention to the price of the kWh, the amount of the fixed term, the duration of the contract, and the possible inclusion of additional services.