(Information submitted by the signing company)
In Spain, the lack of input from key renewables such as wind power means that time slots in which electricity would be practically free reach almost 190 euros.
The price of brent has fallen sharply in November, although it continues to incorporate a risk premium of between 20 and 25 dollars per barrel and maritime traffic remains tense, since at least five vessels have reported incidents in the Gulf.
Seville, November 10, 2026.- The price of the electricity pool is heading toward what could become the second most expensive winter since 2010, despite the fact that it could be reduced to up to 112 euros per megawatt-hour —a 27% decrease compared with its current quotation— thanks to the de-escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. However, from the energy consultancy Tempos Energía they warn that this figure would still be high, since "peace would lower the price, but it would not return the market to the situation before the war".
The CEO of Tempos Energía, Antonio Aceituno, emphasizes that the cost of electricity is especially high in Spain due to the absence of cheap technologies. "The lack of a high-importance renewable such as wind power causes hours in which electricity would be almost free to end up costing almost 190 euros, since that gap is covered by combined-cycle plants". "Seven out of every eight hours there are gas-fired power plants turned on, so it can be said that today the light is gas". "And natural gas is worth triple what it was a year ago", he has said.
To this context are added other elements, such as the unavailability of a nuclear reactor, the shutdown of the flow of electricity coming from France, and the increase in the cost of evening peak hours due to lower solar radiation. This succession of gaps further increases dependence on gas, whose price is much higher than in previous years and has been consolidated as the reference that sets the market’s floor.
Analysis of electricity futures
In the field of electricity futures, gas —the main benchmark in the energy market— has closed at 85.5 euros, more than eighteen below its latest high. At the end of October it broke the threshold of one hundred euros for the first time since 2022; however, in just five sessions it has corrected more than half of the increase accumulated over a month. Despite this, it continues to be worth more than two and a half times what it was a year ago.
For Aceituno, this limited correction is explained because "what came out of the price was fear, since an attack on Iran was expected after the American elections and, instead, diplomacy arrived". Even so, no greater retreat is observed since "through Hormuz, less than a third of the January methaners pass, which means that the ships have not returned".
As the director of Tempos has detailed, "without those ships, the ground is marked by European reserves that are ten points emptier than a year ago". "What is missing will arrive by ship, and the ship will go to whoever pays the most". Even so, the increase in prices will have a ceiling conditioned by European demand, which consumes more than a fifth less gas than in 2022 and which, as Aceituno recalls, "was staged during the two days on which gas closed above one hundred euros, since the next day it was already below".
At the same time, the electricity futures from January to March are at 153.10 euros, twelve more than on October 20, with the same level of gas. Spring, at 85 euros, is paid more than twice as much as a year ago, even with the correction of gas, while the summer product has exceeded its record on sixteen occasions in six weeks and the winter of a year from now trades at 33 euros below the one that is about to start. In an overall view, all of 2027 is negotiated at 120 euros —double that in June— and 2028, at 70 euros, cost the same as 2027 on New Year’s Eve, but at present, between the two there are fifty euros in difference.
Brent continues to be threatened
Brent recorded a sharp drop in the first three sessions of November, going from 120.15 to 91.84 dollars per barrel, which means 28.31 dollars less, 23.56%. Despite this correction, it maintains a risk premium of between 20 and 25 dollars per barrel and the situation on sea routes continues without normalizing, since at least five vessels have reported incidents in the Gulf during the first days of the month.
In this context, the market has assumed that there will not be an immediate offensive, but the crossing of the Gulf continues to entail the same level of danger. This balance, between an offensive that does not quite materialize and a persistent geopolitical risk, provides the basis for the different scenarios handled by Tempos Energía. In the “base” scenario, Brent would fluctuate between 90 and 105 dollars per barrel; without a definitive agreement, without a large-scale offensive, and with pinpoint attacks such as the one recorded on the Iranian island of Qeshm.
In a second scenario, a possible order for an attack by the United States before the new Congress takes office in January would trigger a sharp rebound in prices, placing them in a range of between 115 and 135 dollars per barrel. The market would thus return to the September and October average, 119.04 dollars per barrel, and at the upper end it would remain just over three dollars below the 2026 high, the 138.21 dollars per barrel recorded on the past April 7.
As an alternative, the consulting firm considers a bearish scenario that would materialize if a Qatari agreement were reached that would release Iranian crude oil and deactivate the risk premium. With the lifting of the blockade, the presence of inspectors at nuclear facilities, and the reopening of the strait, Brent could be between 78 and 90 dollars per barrel. Even so, the expert has stressed that "we would not return to the barrel before the war, which in January and February 2026 cost on average 68.69 dollars per barrel, and even the floor of that range would remain 14 percent above."
About Tempos Energía
Tempos Energía is an independent energy consulting firm with 15 years of experience, specializing in the management of energy, gas, and electricity procurement for large consumers. Its goal is to optimize its clients’ profit and loss accounts through constant market analysis and the application of strategies designed to anticipate adverse scenarios.
With more than 100 active clients and nearly 200 industrial supply points (CUPS) under management, which annually add up to more than 1,500 GWh of electricity and 750 gigas of gas, Tempos Energía produces reports and studies supported by real data to facilitate efficient purchasing decisions.
Press Contact:
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