The struggle between EH Bildu and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) could experience a reversal in the general elections on next November 29. According to a poll carried out by the polling company GAD3 and published this Tuesday exclusively by the newspaper ABC, the party led by Arnaldo Otegi would secure eight members of parliament between the Basque Country and Navarre, double the four that the party headed by Aitor Esteban would obtain. A result which, if confirmed at the ballot box, would leave the PNV below the minimum of five seats required to form its own parliamentary group in Congress.
GAD3’s estimate draws a scenario of particular relevance for the two main forces of Basque nationalism. EH Bildu would double the parliamentary representation of the PNV, a difference that would modify the relative weight of both parties in Congress and that would arrive on the eve of a decisive electoral cycle for the Basque Country.
The general elections of 29N will be the first of three electoral appointments that both parties will face. In May 2027, municipal and provincial elections will be held, while in 2028 the regional elections are scheduled, in which the composition of the Basque Parliament and the presidency of the regional government will again be at stake.
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The PNV, facing the risk of losing its parliamentary group
The main institutional consequence of the result projected by GAD3 would affect the PNV. With four seats, Aitor Esteban’s party would not reach the minimum of five deputies established in article 23 of the Congress Rules of Procedure to form its own parliamentary group.
The loss of that fifth deputy would have direct consequences for how it functions in the Lower House. Having one’s own parliamentary group allows for greater political autonomy, economic resources, and the ability to intervene, as well as facilitating the submission of initiatives and participation in parliamentary bodies.
Although the regulations contemplate certain grouping formulas among deputies from different candidate lists, the PNV would be below the ordinary threshold required to form its own group.
The situation would be especially significant for a party that has maintained stable parliamentary representation in Congress and that has played a relevant role in different negotiations with governments of different political colors.
Bildu would face the next Basque electoral cycle strengthened
For EH Bildu, the eight seats that GAD3 attributes to it would imply parliamentary representation higher than that of the PNV. The projection takes on special importance due to the election calendar both formations face during the next two years.
After the general election of November 29, the municipal and regional elections of May 2027 will once again measure the strength of both parties in the city councils and the provincial councils of Álava, Vizcaya and Guipúzcoa.
Subsequently, the regional elections scheduled for 2028 will determine the composition of the Basque Parliament and the formation of the next regional government. The outcome of that call will be especially relevant for the PNV, which has historically played a central role in the Basque Government.
A new balance of forces in Congress
GAD3’s estimate places EH Bildu with eight MPs and the PNV with four, a difference of four seats that would modify the balance of representation between the two forces in the Lower House.
The result could also have consequences for the parliamentary dialogue of both formations with the next Government of Spain, although their capacity to influence will depend on the final composition of Congress and the majorities needed to approve the different initiatives.
GAD3’s poll, advanced exclusively by ABC, thus reflects the possibility of a significant change in the representation of Basque nationalism, with EH Bildu ahead of the PNV and the latter facing the risk of losing its own parliamentary group. A projection that will have to be verified with the result at the polls on November 29.