Mali re-enters a critical phase of instability. The Minister of Defense, Sadio Camara, passed away this Saturday in an attack on his residence within the military base of Kati, on the outskirts of Bamako, according to French radio station RFI. The assault has been attributed to JNIM (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims), an organization linked to Al Qaeda and one of the main armed threats in the Sahel.
The death of Camara represents one of the hardest blows received by the Malian military junta since its arrival to power and confirms that the conflict has ceased to concentrate solely in the north of the country to reach directly the heart of the regime.
A coordinated attack against power
The offensive was not an isolated event. According to various sources, the assault was part of a simultaneous operation launched by JNIM along with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a new separatist-inspired insurgent platform in the north of the country.
Both groups would have acted in a coordinated manner to attack strategic objectives: the residence of President Assimi Goita, that of the Minister of Defense, the Bamako international airport and other military positions in the center of the country.
While the secessionists focused their action in the north, especially in the city of Kidal, the jihadists extended the offensive to the capital and other sensitive areas.
The return of the ghost of 2012
The attack is reminiscent of the scenario that destabilized Mali in 2012, when an alliance between Tuareg rebels and Islamists took over a large part of the north of the country. That year, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) launched an offensive that led to the fall of cities such as Gao, Timbuktu, and Kidal.
The Government's inability to respond provoked a coup d'état in Bamako, followed by the unilateral proclamation of independence of Azawad, an immense desert region that represents about two-thirds of Malian territory.
Shortly after, the jihadist groups displaced the secessionists and began to impose sharia, which led to the French military intervention in 2013 with Operation Serval.
A military junta under increasing pressure
Between 2020 and 2021, Mali suffered two coups d'état that consolidated the current military junta led by Assimi Goita in power. Since then, the country has distanced itself from France and other Western partners, strengthening ties with Russia.
Moscow has backed the regime first through the Wagner group and then with the Africa Corps, a paramilitary structure linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
However, far from stabilizing the country, armed groups have expanded their influence. Both JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara have expanded across large areas of the territory.
Curfew and security crisis
After the offensive, Malian authorities announced they had neutralized "hundreds of terrorists", although they have not offered independent assessments. The junta has also decreed three days of curfew in Bamako, reflecting the seriousness of the situation.
The death of the Minister of Defense and the insurgents' ability to strike key facilities highlight the weaknesses of the state apparatus and the security system deployed around the capital.
Message against Russia
Both FLA and JNIM would have taken advantage of their post-attack statements to demand the exit of Russian influence from the country and ask Moscow to review its support for the military regime.
That message seeks to exploit a growing reality in the Sahel: the perception that foreign presence, whether Western or Russian, has not managed to curb violence.
The future of Mali, open
Regional analysts consider that the offensive marks a new phase of the conflict, more coordinated, ambitious, and focused on directly destabilizing the central power. It is no longer just about controlling rural areas or northern cities, but about challenging the regime in Bamako.
The death of Sadio Camara symbolizes that strategic leap. Mali now faces a decisive question: whether the military junta will be able to contain the threat or if the country will re-enter a spiral similar to that of 2012, this time with even stronger actors.