The race for the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB) has begun to gain momentum despite the fact that Christine Lagarde's mandate does not officially end until October 2027. The Spaniard Pablo Hernández de Cos appears among the names with the most options to occupy the position, alongside the Dutch Klaas Knot.
The possibility that Lagarde will leave the position before her term ends has once again fueled movements among European governments. However, there is no confirmed resignation from the president, who officially maintains her mandate until 2027.
In this sense, it has been the newspaper El País that reported this Sunday on the movements taking place around the future succession and placed Hernández de Cos among the most prominent candidates.
Spain already has a candidate
Hernández de Cos has a particularly relevant position because the Spanish Government confirmed last July that he will be its candidate to preside over the ECB. The economist was governor of the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024 and currently heads the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
His technical profile and experience at the helm of the Spanish central bank have placed him for months in the running to succeed Lagarde. In April, a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) among economic experts ranked him as the most highly regarded candidate to occupy the presidency of the ECB, ahead of the German Joachim Nagel.
In addition to his preparation in monetary policy, experts highlighted his ability to reach consensus and his European credentials.
Klaas Knot, the other big name
The Dutch Klaas Knot is another of the candidates with significant weight. The former governor of the Dutch Central Bank until 2025 has already received the backing of his Government to run for the presidency of the ECB.
Knot has a long career in monetary policy and was a member of the ECB Governing Council for years. His candidacy thus appears as one of the main alternatives to the Spanish option.
The competition also includes German names, among them Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank, and Isabel Schnabel, member of the ECB Executive Board. The election will be conditioned by the balances between countries and the need to reach a consensus among the member states.
Lagarde officially maintains her mandate
The possible early departure of Lagarde is, for now, a hypothesis. The president's term ends in October 2027 and Lagarde herself has publicly defended her intention to remain in office until then.
Rumors about an early departure began to gain strength at the beginning of the year, after the Financial Times reported that the president might be considering leaving the ECB ahead of time. Lagarde then responded that her starting point was to complete her term.
The ECB itself also addressed the speculation and assured that the president was fully focused on her mission and had not made any decision regarding the end of her term.
A succession with implications for the entire ECB leadership
Lagarde's succession will not be the only relevant change in the institution in the coming months. The ECB faces a renewal of several positions in its leadership, which makes the distribution of roles a negotiation of great importance among the eurozone countries.
The departure of the Spaniard Luis de Guindos from the vice-presidency, scheduled for May 2026, will temporarily leave Spain without Spanish representation on the ECB Executive Committee. Lagarde's presidency thus constitutes one of the main opportunities for Madrid to regain weight in the highest decision-making body of the central bank.
In addition, there are the upcoming changes of the chief economist, Philip Lane, and other members of the Executive Committee.
A race still open
Although Hernández de Cos starts with a prominent position and has the official backing of the Spanish Government, the election is not decided. The presidency of the ECB requires a complex political agreement among the member states and will be conditioned by the geographical, institutional, and monetary balances of the European Union.
For now, the main unknown is not only who will succeed Lagarde, but when the succession will occur. If the president completes her term, the battle will be resolved in 2027. If an early departure ultimately occurs, European governments would have to accelerate a negotiation that has already begun to move in the background.