Germany celebrates this Sunday, September 6, regional elections that could transform its political landscape. Alternative for Germany, AfD, starts as a clear favorite in Saxony-Anhalt and is on the verge of an unprecedented result: achieving a sufficient majority to govern for the first time one of the federal states of the country.
The latest polls place the party above 40% of the votes and with a lead of nearly twenty points over the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The unknown is no longer whether AfD will win the elections, but whether it will obtain enough seats to overcome the isolation imposed by the rest of the parties.
A survey by Insa gives AfD 43%, compared to 22% for the CDU. The Left would reach 12%, the SPD would remain at 7%, and the Greens would obtain just the 5% necessary to enter the regional Parliament.
The latest Politbarometer from ZDF offers a slightly less favorable scenario for AfD, but confirms its enormous advantage: 41% for Ulrich Siegmund's party, 23% for the CDU, and around 11.5% for the Left
AfD can win and remain outside the Government
The first position in the polls does not automatically grant the Government of Saxony-Anhalt.
The president of the state must obtain the support of the regional Parliament. The CDU, the SPD, the Greens, and the Left have rejected forming a coalition with AfD. Therefore, if Siegmund's party wins but does not achieve an absolute majority of seats, the other forces could attempt to build an alternative majority.
This is the main obstacle for AfD. It can widely double its result from 2021, become the most voted force, and still remain outside the Executive.
Reuters places the party between 40% and 43%, while the CDU hovers around 22%. Despite this distance, the polls published so far do not grant it a clear absolute majority of seats.
A victory without a majority would open an extraordinarily complicated negotiation. The CDU might need to negotiate with several forces or seek some type of minority government to prevent AfD from controlling the regional administration.
Why the 5% can decide who governs
The final distribution will also depend on the parties that manage to surpass the electoral barrier of 5%.
The votes obtained by the parties that do not reach that threshold are excluded from the ordinary distribution of seats. This causes a party to be able to approach the parliamentary absolute majority without obtaining 50% of the votes cast.
The BSW and the FDP appear below the threshold in the latest polls. The Greens are around 5%, so a few tenths could significantly change the composition of the Parliament.
If several parties are excluded, the percentage necessary to control more than half of the seats is reduced. Therefore, a small movement of AfD or the fall of the Greens below 5% can alter the scenario more than it seems.
The German public television Tagesschau emphasizes that none of the eleven polls published since the beginning of 2026 has so far granted AfD an absolute majority of seats. However, it acknowledges that a final rise could bring it within reach of that goal.
AfD could surpass CDU by twenty points
The result would represent a turnaround compared to the 2021 elections. Then, the CDU won with 37.1% and AfD came in second with 20.8%.
The current polls reverse that relationship. AfD could grow by more than twenty points, while the Christian Democrats would lose around fifteen.
The magnitude of the decline makes the elections a direct challenge for Friedrich Merz. Although it is a regional call, the CDU governs Germany and the result will be interpreted as an assessment of the chancellor and his ability to contain the growth of AfD.
Merz has warned that a regional government of this formation could harm foreign investment. According to the chancellor, some international companies may avoid establishing themselves in a territory managed by AfD.
Ulrich Siegmund, the candidate who wants to conquer the Government
The AfD candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 36 years old, head of the parliamentary group of the formation in Saxony-Anhalt.
Siegmund has built a significant part of his campaign through videos and direct messages on social media. His speech focuses on immigration, national identity, security, education, and rejection of the federal government's policies.
The party aims to promote more restrictive measures against irregular immigration and modify regional policies on integration, culture, and education. These proposals have provoked a strong mobilization of their opponents and concern among migrant and minority organizations.
The AfD section in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as far-right extremist by the regional constitutional protection services.
From a mayoralty in 2023 to the conquest of an entire state
The election of Hannes Loth as mayor of Raguhn-Jessnitz in 2023 is now relevant only as a precedent.
It was the first mayoralty conquered by AfD in Germany through a direct election. Three years later, the party no longer aspires only to govern a municipality of about 9,000 inhabitants, but a state with approximately two million people.
The subsequent electoral results show how the party grew in that locality. AfD went from 27.7% in the 2021 federal elections to 42.3% in the 2024 European elections. In the 2025 federal elections, its direct candidate reached 51.5%.
The mayoralty alone does not explain that growth. The national evolution of AfD, the loss of support for traditional parties, and the social and economic conditions of eastern Germany also influence.
Raguhn-Jessnitz was the first municipal laboratory; Saxony-Anhalt can now become the first large territory governed by AfD.
A blocking minority would also alter regional power
Even if AfD does not manage to govern, surpassing a third of the seats would grant it an important blocking minority.
Certain decisions require qualified majorities of two-thirds. With more than a third of the deputies, AfD could prevent constitutional reforms and condition appointments that depend on reinforced agreements.
This means that the result of Sunday can transform regional politics even if the rest of the parties manage to keep the party out of the Executive.
Moreover, the state governments participate in the Bundesrat, the chamber that represents the territories and intervenes in the approval of part of the federal legislation. The arrival of AfD in a regional government would therefore have consequences beyond Saxony-Anhalt.
The night that could change German politics
The victory of AfD seems to be the most likely scenario in light of all the polls. What cannot yet be taken for granted is that it will obtain an absolute majority or that it will manage to form a Government.
The result will depend on three factors: the definitive percentage of AfD, the entry or exit of the Greens and other forces situated near 5%, and the ability of the rest of the parties to build an alternative majority.
If AfD reaches more than half of the seats, the sanitary cordon will cease to be sufficient. If it stays below, Germany will face a complex negotiation to form an Executive capable of governing against a party that could concentrate more than 40% of the votes.
Saxony-Anhalt does not elect the federal Government this Sunday, but it can open a new stage: the transition of AfD from the opposition and municipal power to the control of one of the states of Germany.