AfD faces its great assault on power in Germany: it nears an absolute majority in the elections this Sunday

The formation leads the polls in Saxony-Anhalt with between 40% and 43%, almost double that of the CDU of Friedrich Merz, but winning does not guarantee that it can govern.

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Germany celebrates this Sunday, September 6, regional elections that could transform its political landscape. Alternative for Germany, AfD, starts as a clear favorite in Saxony-Anhalt and is on the verge of an unprecedented result: achieving a sufficient majority to govern for the first time one of the federal states of the country.

The latest polls place the party above 40% of the votes and with a lead of nearly twenty points over the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The unknown is no longer whether AfD will win the elections, but whether it will obtain enough seats to overcome the isolation imposed by the rest of the parties.

A survey by Insa gives AfD 43%, compared to 22% for the CDU. The Left would reach 12%, the SPD would remain at 7%, and the Greens would obtain just the 5% necessary to enter the regional Parliament.

The latest Politbarometer from ZDF offers a slightly less favorable scenario for AfD, but confirms its enormous advantage: 41% for Ulrich Siegmund's party, 23% for the CDU, and around 11.5% for the Left

AfD can win and remain outside the Government

The first position in the polls does not automatically grant the Government of Saxony-Anhalt.

The president of the state must obtain the support of the regional Parliament. The CDU, the SPD, the Greens, and the Left have rejected forming a coalition with AfD. Therefore, if Siegmund's party wins but does not achieve an absolute majority of seats, the other forces could attempt to build an alternative majority.

This is the main obstacle for AfD. It can widely double its result from 2021, become the most voted force, and still remain outside the Executive.

Reuters places the party between 40% and 43%, while the CDU hovers around 22%. Despite this distance, the polls published so far do not grant it a clear absolute majority of seats.

A victory without a majority would open an extraordinarily complicated negotiation. The CDU might need to negotiate with several forces or seek some type of minority government to prevent AfD from controlling the regional administration.

Why the 5% can decide who governs

The final distribution will also depend on the parties that manage to surpass the electoral barrier of 5%.

The votes obtained by the parties that do not reach that threshold are excluded from the ordinary distribution of seats. This causes a party to be able to approach the parliamentary absolute majority without obtaining 50% of the votes cast.

The BSW and the FDP appear below the threshold in the latest polls. The Greens are around 5%, so a few tenths could significantly change the composition of the Parliament.

If several parties are excluded, the percentage necessary to control more than half of the seats is reduced. Therefore, a small movement of AfD or the fall of the Greens below 5% can alter the scenario more than it seems.

The German public television Tagesschau emphasizes that none of the eleven polls published since the beginning of 2026 has so far granted AfD an absolute majority of seats. However, it acknowledges that a final rise could bring it within reach of that goal.

AfD could surpass CDU by twenty points

The result would represent a turnaround compared to the 2021 elections. Then, the CDU won with 37.1% and AfD came in second with 20.8%.

The current polls reverse that relationship. AfD could grow by more than twenty points, while the Christian Democrats would lose around fifteen.

The magnitude of the decline makes the elections a direct challenge for Friedrich Merz. Although it is a regional call, the CDU governs Germany and the result will be interpreted as an assessment of the chancellor and his ability to contain the growth of AfD.

Merz has warned that a regional government of this formation could harm foreign investment. According to the chancellor, some international companies may avoid establishing themselves in a territory managed by AfD.

Ulrich Siegmund, the candidate who wants to conquer the Government

The AfD candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 36 years old, head of the parliamentary group of the formation in Saxony-Anhalt.

Siegmund has built a significant part of his campaign through videos and direct messages on social media. His speech focuses on immigration, national identity, security, education, and rejection of the federal government's policies.

The party aims to promote more restrictive measures against irregular immigration and modify regional policies on integration, culture, and education. These proposals have provoked a strong mobilization of their opponents and concern among migrant and minority organizations.

The AfD section in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as far-right extremist by the regional constitutional protection services.

From a mayoralty in 2023 to the conquest of an entire state

The election of Hannes Loth as mayor of Raguhn-Jessnitz in 2023 is now relevant only as a precedent.

It was the first mayoralty conquered by AfD in Germany through a direct election. Three years later, the party no longer aspires only to govern a municipality of about 9,000 inhabitants, but a state with approximately two million people.

The subsequent electoral results show how the party grew in that locality. AfD went from 27.7% in the 2021 federal elections to 42.3% in the 2024 European elections. In the 2025 federal elections, its direct candidate reached 51.5%.

The mayoralty alone does not explain that growth. The national evolution of AfD, the loss of support for traditional parties, and the social and economic conditions of eastern Germany also influence.

Raguhn-Jessnitz was the first municipal laboratory; Saxony-Anhalt can now become the first large territory governed by AfD.

A blocking minority would also alter regional power

Even if AfD does not manage to govern, surpassing a third of the seats would grant it an important blocking minority.

Certain decisions require qualified majorities of two-thirds. With more than a third of the deputies, AfD could prevent constitutional reforms and condition appointments that depend on reinforced agreements.

This means that the result of Sunday can transform regional politics even if the rest of the parties manage to keep the party out of the Executive.

Moreover, the state governments participate in the Bundesrat, the chamber that represents the territories and intervenes in the approval of part of the federal legislation. The arrival of AfD in a regional government would therefore have consequences beyond Saxony-Anhalt.

The night that could change German politics

The victory of AfD seems to be the most likely scenario in light of all the polls. What cannot yet be taken for granted is that it will obtain an absolute majority or that it will manage to form a Government.

The result will depend on three factors: the definitive percentage of AfD, the entry or exit of the Greens and other forces situated near 5%, and the ability of the rest of the parties to build an alternative majority.

If AfD reaches more than half of the seats, the sanitary cordon will cease to be sufficient. If it stays below, Germany will face a complex negotiation to form an Executive capable of governing against a party that could concentrate more than 40% of the votes.

Saxony-Anhalt does not elect the federal Government this Sunday, but it can open a new stage: the transition of AfD from the opposition and municipal power to the control of one of the states of Germany.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What are the upcoming parliamentary procedures after the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt for government formation?

I do not have a reliable and specialized frame of reference to describe in detail the specific parliamentary procedures for government formation in Saxony-Anhalt (Germany) after regional elections. My work scope is focused on the Spanish political and institutional system (Congress, Senate, Spanish autonomous parliaments, Government of Spain, autonomous governments and their regulations) and the public activity associated with that environment.

Although many European parliaments share general features in the logic of government formation — such as the constitution of the chamber, the election of the parliament presidency, the investiture or election of the regional executive head, and the subsequent signing of the coalition agreement or formal appointment by the head of state or corresponding authority — each German Land has very specific rules, usually established in its regional Constitution and parliamentary regulations. These rules include:

  • Exact deadlines for the constitution of the new Landtag.
  • Required majorities and number of possible rounds to elect the minister-president.
  • Time margin for possible coalition negotiations or minority governments.
  • Legal consequences if the head of government is not elected within a certain period (dissolution of parliament, repeat elections, etc.).

All these elements, which would precisely answer your question about “the upcoming parliamentary procedures,” depend on rules and interpretations specific to the German legal system and, in particular, that of Saxony-Anhalt. Since my specialization, sources, and tools are oriented to the Spanish case, I cannot guarantee a rigorous and updated explanation of that specific procedure without risking providing you with an inaccurate or outdated outline.

On the other hand, I can help you in depth, with normative and parliamentary traceability, on issues such as:

  • How autonomous governments in Spain are formed after elections (for example, in Castilla y León, Andalusia, Catalonia, etc.).
  • What are the parliamentary steps for the investiture of an autonomous president in the Statute of Autonomy and in the corresponding chamber's regulations.
  • What happens if investiture is not achieved in Spain (two-month deadlines, automatic dissolution, calling of new elections, etc.).
  • What majorities are required in the first and second votes in the different Spanish autonomous parliaments.

If you find it useful, I can:

  • Explain in detail the government formation procedure in a specific Spanish autonomous community, step by step, following the elections.
  • Develop a conceptual comparison between the Spanish model of autonomous investiture and a generic regional parliamentary model (majorities, voting rounds, role of coalition agreements, etc.), making clear that the foreign part would necessarily be more abstract.
  • Analyze what political implications parliamentary fragmentation and coalition needs scenarios usually have, but always taking the Spanish case as the main example.

If you want, reformulate your question towards the Spanish context (for example: “What are the parliamentary procedures after autonomous elections in Spain to form a government?” or citing a specific community) and I will be able to give you a structured explanation, with references to the formal investiture steps, deadlines, and possible outcomes if a president is not elected.

What competencies and functions does a president of a federated state in Germany have according to German legislation?

I do not have the specific capacity to offer a detailed and reliable analysis on the distribution of competencies and functions of the presidents of federated states in Germany according to their internal legislation. I am specialized in the Spanish political and institutional system (General Courts, autonomous governments, BOE and official bulletins, Spanish regulations, Spanish political actors, etc.), and my consultation tools are oriented to those sources, not to German legislation.

This means I cannot guarantee you a rigorous answer about:

  • The exact constitutional bases in the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz) related to the Länder.
  • The specific provisions of each Land's constitutions regarding the position equivalent to the president of the federated state (Ministerpräsident, Regierender Bürgermeister, etc.).
  • The differences in competencies among the various German federated states or their recent legal evolution.

My work scope focuses on:

  • Institutions of the Spanish State (Government, Congress of Deputies, Senate, Constitutional Court in the public part, etc.).
  • Spanish autonomous parliaments and governments, their competencies, functioning, rules, and agreements.
  • Spanish regulations: laws, royal decree-laws, royal decrees, ministerial orders, bills and legislative proposals, parliamentary initiatives, and their processing.
  • Political debate in Spain, both parliamentary and in the media, and the role of the main political and social actors in the country.

On the other hand, I am not designed to:

  • Analyze in detail the constitutional or administrative organization of other States (such as Germany, France, Italy, United States, etc.).
  • Directly consult their official normative databases, parliamentary or jurisprudential records.
  • Offer a technical comparative opinion on foreign institutions beyond some general political culture comments.

If what interests you is a comparative approach between Germany and Spain, I could better help you if you reformulate the question so that the main focus is on the Spanish case. For example:

  • Roughly compare the figure of a German Land president with that of a Spanish autonomous community president, from a competency and political point of view.
  • Analyze how an autonomous president in Spain is elected and what functions they have, and only very generally point out similarities or differences with the heads of government of the Länder.
  • Explain the distribution of competencies between the State and autonomous communities in Spain, and comment in general terms how something similar is usually approached in federal systems, without going into German legal detail.

If you find it useful, you can reformulate your query, for example, like this:

  • “Explain to me the competencies and functions of an autonomous community president in Spain and compare them generally with those of the heads of government of the Länder in Germany.”
  • “Detail the constitutional role of the Spanish autonomous president (election, functions, relations with parliament and the central government).”
  • “Make me an outline of the distribution of competencies between the State and the autonomous communities in Spain.”

In any of those cases, I will be able to give you a much more solid answer, supported by regulations, parliamentary practice, and Spanish institutional functioning, which is the field for which I am specifically prepared.

What is the political and professional background of Ulrich Siegmund, AfD candidate in Saxony-Anhalt?

Based on the sources consulted, no detailed biographical profile of Ulrich Siegmund appears in the Spanish press or in the databases used, beyond his general status as a leader and AfD candidate in the ‘land’ of Saxony-Anhalt. This means it is not possible to rigorously reconstruct his specific political and professional background (education, previous jobs, mandate dates, etc.) without directly consulting specialized German sources.

The specific search of his name in political actor databases and news related to Germany and AfD returns abundant information about the far-right party and the political situation in Saxony-Anhalt, but none of the reviewed articles mention him by name nor provide biographical data about him. The political stakeholders database, focused on Spain, also does not register Ulrich Siegmund, which is logical given that he is a regional German politician.

1. What has been found in the consulted sources

The newspaper Demócrata and other analyzed media offer a broad context about AfD and, in particular, about the situation in Saxony-Anhalt:

  • A recent analysis on the possible banning of AfD describes how the party leads the polls in Saxony-Anhalt, with percentages close to or above 40%, and how it faces three key regional elections, starting with that ‘land’ on September 6. See, for example, the Demócrata report on debates around banning AfD and the role of the Federal Constitutional Court (analysis on AfD banning).
  • Other texts from the same outlet point out that in Saxony-Anhalt AfD could even approach an unprecedented absolute majority, which would make its lead candidate a central figure in the national debate, by opening for the first time the door to a regional government dominated by the far right (polls on AfD and conservatives).
  • The German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, and other leaders have even suggested studying the ban of AfD in several eastern states, including Saxony-Anhalt, considering that these regional federations have an openly ethno-nationalist orientation (debate on banning AfD in the east).

All this paints a scenario in which the AfD candidate in Saxony-Anhalt (whom you refer to as Ulrich Siegmund) would have very relevant political weight, but Spanish sources do not go into detail about his biography or individual career.

2. What cannot be affirmed based on these sources

Specifically, the consulted databases and articles do not provide:

  • His date of birth or place of origin.
  • His academic background (whether he studied Medicine, Law, Political Science, or another discipline).
  • His profession or occupation prior to engaging in regional politics.
  • The exact year he joined AfD or the organizational positions he has held within the party.
  • The dates of entry into the regional parliament (Landtag) or other representative bodies.
  • Specific details of controversial statements or disciplinary records attributable to him, if any.

That is, any attempt to reconstruct a precise “political and professional background” from these sources would require speculating or adding unverified data, which would not be rigorous.

3. Context about the type of figure he represents

Although the detailed curriculum of Ulrich Siegmund is not available in these databases, his figure can be placed within the logic of German regional politics:

  • AfD lead candidates in the eastern ‘Länder’ usually combine a prominent position in the regional party structure with a seat in the parliament of the federated state itself.
  • Their central function during the campaign is to personify AfD’s discourse on immigration, national identity, criticism of the “system,” and rejection of traditional elites, lines that are repeated in contextual articles about the party and its advance in eastern Germany.
  • In a ‘land’ like Saxony-Anhalt, where AfD approaches or exceeds 40% in polls, the candidate also acts as a possible aspirant to regional minister-president if the party manages to form a government, something that worries traditional parties and fuels debates about cordon sanitaire and, at the extreme, banning.
4. Where to find a more complete biography

To truly reconstruct the political and professional background of Ulrich Siegmund, it would be necessary to consult:

  • The official AfD page in Saxony-Anhalt (AfD Sachsen-Anhalt), which usually includes biographical profiles of its main candidates.
  • The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt portal, where curricula, professions, and positions of regional deputies are published.
  • The regional German press of the ‘land’ itself, which often offers detailed profiles of lead candidates during the electoral campaign.

In summary, with the Spanish sources consulted, it can only be stated that Ulrich Siegmund is the AfD candidate in a ‘land’ where the party has become a dominant actor and the center of debate about the rise of the far right, but his biography and specific career require directly consulting specialized German sources.

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