General elections survey: Vox skyrockets after Ceuta, the PP falls 2.6 points and the PSOE approaches it, according to More in Common

The Ceuta crisis has not reduced the global advantage of the right-wing bloc, but it has profoundly changed the distribution of forces within it.

Vox is the big winner of the new More in Common survey. The party of Santiago Abascal goes from the 17.1% recorded in the previous measurement to 20.3%, an increase of 3.2 points in just two months and its best result since the organization began publishing its current Electoral Pulse.

The PP is going in the opposite direction. Alberto Núñez Feijóo maintains the first position, but goes from 31.3% in July to 28.7%, a loss of 2.6 points.

And the PSOE partially takes advantage of that movement. Pedro Sánchez rises from 25.7% to 27%, recovers 1.3 points and significantly reduces the distance with the PP. In July, the two parties were separated by 5.6 points. Now the gap is only 1.7.

The photograph is especially relevant because the fieldwork was carried out between August 24 and 28, after almost a month marked by the Ceuta crisis and when immigration had taken center stage in the political conversation.

Who wins and who loses compared to July

The comparison with the previous Electoral Pulse of More in Common shows very clear movements.

• Vox goes from 17.1% to 20.3%: gains 3.2 points.
• The PSOE goes from 25.7% to 27%: gains 1.3 points.
• Podemos rises slightly from 3.3% to 3.6%: three tenths.
• In the opposite direction, the PP falls from 31.3% to 28.7%: loses 2.6 points.
• Sumar goes from 8.2% to 6.6%: loses 1.6 points.

The July data comes from the previous More in Common study, whose fieldwork was carried out between June 24 and 28 and placed the PP at 31.3%, the PSOE at 25.7%, Vox at 17.1%, Sumar at 8.2% and Podemos at 3.3%.

The big movement, therefore, does not occur between the two major blocs, but within them. On the right, Vox absorbs part of the space that the PP loses. On the left, the PSOE and Podemos advance while Sumar retreats.

Vox breaks the 20% barrier

More in Common places Abascal's party at 20.3% of the votes, 3.2 points more than in July. The growth is even greater if the comparison is made with the general elections of 2023. Vox then obtained 12.4%. Now it appears 7.9 points above. It is, by far, the formation that improves the most compared to the 23J among the major national parties.

The jump occurs in a particularly favorable context for a formation that has placed immigration, borders, and security among its main political axes.

The survey itself offers the most evident clue: immigration is already the main problem identified by Spaniards.

Ceuta turns immigration into Spain's top problem

45.9% of respondents include immigration among the three main problems of the country. That's 16 points more than just two months ago.

Housing, which until now topped the ranking, thus loses the first position. The growth is transversal, although it reaches very different intensities depending on the electorate.

Among Vox voters, 75.7% include immigration among the main problems. Among PP voters, 55.1% do so.

But the phenomenon also reaches the left: 30.8% among those who would vote for PSOE and 18.8% among Sumar voters.

Especially significant is what has happened among the undecided. Concern about immigration has increased by 20.7 points since July and reaches 42.6%.

This last figure may be electorally crucial: immigration not only mobilizes those who already vote for Vox or PP, but has also strongly entered among citizens who have not yet decided their ballot.

PP loses 2.6 points and part of its vote moves to Vox

PP continues to win elections, but it is the party that has retreated the most compared to the previous More in Common. It goes from 31.3% to 28.7%. That's 2.6 points less.

The analysis of transfers helps to understand an important part of that decline.

The loyalty of former PP voters drops from the 80.2% recorded in July to the current 73.1%. At the same time, the percentage of those who voted for Feijóo in 2023 and would now choose Vox increases: it goes from 11.6% to 14.2%.

That's 2.6 points more of direct transfer from PP to Abascal.

Vox, moreover, retains 91% of those who already voted for it in the last general elections, the highest loyalty among the main parties. The picture is especially interesting for Feijóo: his block continues clearly ahead, but he loses weight within that same space while Vox increases its own.

PSOE recovers 1.3 points and approaches PP

The other big surprise is the evolution of PSOE. In July, More in Common placed the socialists at 25.7%, after a drop of more than two points compared to its first measurement.

Now they regain ground and reach 27%. The increase is 1.3 points.

The combination of socialist advance and popular setback drastically reduces the distance between both. PP and PSOE were separated by 5.6 points and now only by 1.7.

More in Common warns, moreover, that the probabilistic intervals of the two formations overlap.

The model places the PP in a range of 25.9% to 31.5% and the PSOE between 24.4% and 29.6%.

This means that the PP continues to be the most likely winner, but the result cannot be considered completely closed. According to the organization's model, approximately four out of five simulations would place the PP ahead of the PSOE.

The PSOE regains loyalty among its voters

The socialist improvement also appears in the transfers.

The PSOE now retains 72.8% of those who voted for it in 2023. Two months ago that loyalty was at 69.1%. The improvement is 3.7 points.

More in Common also detects a reduction in the percentage of former socialist voters who remain undecided.

It is a relevant signal because for a good part of the legislature the main problem of the PSOE has not only been the transfer to PP or Vox, but the existence of a significant pool of former voters who had not decided whether to support it again. The new survey points to a certain remobilization of that space.

Sánchez regains ground, but remains almost five points below the 23J

The recovery compared to July does not eliminate, however, the accumulated wear since the last elections.

The PSOE obtained 31.7% in July 2023. More in Common now places it at 27%: the difference remains 4.7 points. The PP also does not recover its result from 23J. Then it reached 33.1%; now it stays at 28.7%, 4.4 points less.

The big exception is Vox again. Abascal goes from 12.4% in the last general elections to 20.3%, a gain of 7.9 points. The official results of 23J are published by the Central Electoral Board in the BOE. (BOE)

Sumar is the other big loser

The second strongest setback after the PP corresponds to Sumar.

The formation goes from 8.2% in July to 6.6% and loses 1.6 points.

More in Common also identifies Sumar as the party with the most volatile electoral base. It has significant leaks to the PSOE and to Podemos.

The movement partly explains the socialist recovery: a portion of the PSOE's growth does not come from a transfer between blocks, but from a concentration of the vote within the left.

We can, for its part, rise from 3.3% to 3.6%. If both formations are added, Sumar and Podemos now reach 10.2%. In July, they jointly reached 11.5%.

The space therefore loses 1.3 points in two months.

Sumar and Podemos remain below the joint result of 2023

The comparison with the 23J requires significant caution.

In those elections, Podemos ran within Sumar, so it makes no sense to compare both brands individually with 2023. The joint candidacy then obtained 12.3%.

The right maintains more than 51% despite the fall of the PP

Here appears the great paradox of the survey. The PP falls 2.6 points and, even so, the right block hardly weakens.

The explanation is Vox: PP, Vox, and SALF would currently sum up 51.3% of the valid vote. PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos are around 37%.

More in Common concludes that the movements of recent months occur fundamentally within each political space and not through large transfers between blocks.

In July, using the percentages published by the same house, PP, Vox, and SALF summed approximately 50.6%.

The increase of the block is around seven tenths, despite the fall of the PP.

The Ceuta effect seems to redistribute more than change blocks

This is probably the most nuanced reading of the entire survey. The Ceuta crisis coincides with a huge jump in immigration as a social concern.

But the main electoral movement does not consist of millions of voters crossing from left to right. What occurs is a reorganization within the two large spaces.

Vox grows strongly at the expense of a PP that loses loyalty. PSOE regains ground while Sumar weakens.

The overall result barely alters the size of the blocks, but it does considerably modify the internal balance between the parties that comprise them.

Vox is only 6.7 points away from PSOE

There is also another piece of data that may have political implications.

• Vox reaches 20.3%.
• PSOE is at 27%.

The distance between the second and third force is reduced to 6.7 points. In July it was 8.6 points. And in the general elections of 2023, the distance between both parties exceeded 19 points.

55% believe that Spain is going in the wrong direction

The survey also outlines a predominantly pessimistic social context. 55% believe that Spain is moving in the wrong direction and only 23% think the course is correct.

Three out of ten choose directly the most negative option, compared to just 6% who believe that the country is clearly moving in the right direction.

64% of current PSOE voters believe that Spain is moving in the right direction. Among Sumar voters, it drops to 47%. On the other side of the board, 83% of those who would vote for the PP and 92% of those who would choose Vox believe that the country is going in the wrong direction.

70% believe that Spain is divided: the highest since 2021

The perception of polarization is also growing. 70% believe that Spain is divided or very divided. More in Common points out that this is the highest percentage recorded since 2021. In their previous measurement on polarization, the figure was 65%.

Rufián is the best-rated leader and everyone fails

None of the six leaders included in the survey pass among the general public.

Gabriel Rufián tops the ranking with a 4.12.

He is followed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with 3.63; Pedro Sánchez, with 3.53; Yolanda Díaz, with 3.47; Santiago Abascal, with 3.33; and Irene Montero, with 2.85.

The distance changes significantly when each leader is evaluated exclusively by their own voters.

Abascal reaches an 8.11 among Vox voters, the highest score.

Irene Montero obtains 7.92 among Podemos voters; Sánchez, 7.69 among socialists; Yolanda Díaz, 7.44 among Sumar voters; and Feijóo, 7.19 among popular voters.

General elections survey: result and change compared to July

More in Common places the PP as the leading force, but its lead over the PSOE decreases from 5.6 to 1.7 points. Vox records the largest growth since the previous survey and surpasses 20% for the first time in the current series of the organization.

* In the general elections of 2023, Podemos ran integrated in the Sumar candidacy.