The Democrat James Talarico is achieving one of the most notable local results of the first hours of the count in Texas, where he is contesting with the Republican Ken Paxton a seat in the United States Senate. According to the provisional data released overnight, Talarico reaches the 64% of the votes in one of the state’s counties, a percentage that improves by 28 points the one obtained by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential elections in that same territory.
The comparison points to a considerable difference from electoral behavior from two years ago, although the figure must be interpreted with caution: the county to which it corresponds, the volume of ballots counted, and whether the percentage includes the entirety of the early vote have not yet been independently confirmed.
Texas’s developments are drawing special attention because Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994. Talarico’s candidacy seeks to break that trajectory against Paxton, Texas attorney general and an ally of President Donald Trump.
The counties that could decide the Senate election in Texas
The local newspaper The Texas Tribune has identified several decisive territories for interpreting the outcome. Among them are Tarrant, Collin, and Denton—three counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area where Republicans prevailed in the 2024 presidential elections, but with margins smaller than those obtained across the entire state.
Donald Trump won Tarrant by five points, Collin by eleven, and Denton by thirteen. According to the analysis published by the Texas outlet before election day, the behavior of these suburbs will be one of the references for measuring changes in support for both parties.
Another of the determining areas is Harris County, where Houston is located. Democratic Senate candidates have won there over the past decade, although none has reached 60% of the vote since Beto O'Rourke achieved approximately 58% in 2018.
The percentage obtained by Talarico in the large urban counties, together with the results from suburban and rural areas, will make it possible to assess whether the differences from 2024 are repeated in different territories or respond to local circumstances.
Hispanic voting, another key of the night
Attention is also focused on south Texas, where Trump made significant advances among Hispanic voters in the last presidential elections. In 2024, the Republican won the counties of Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb, which include cities such as Brownsville, McAllen and Laredo.
According to The Texas Tribune, early turnout in several of these counties has even exceeded that of the 2024 elections, a relevant point for electoral analysis, although not sufficient on its own to determine which candidate benefits from the mobilization.
Overall, the Hispanic vote represents more than 30% of the eligible electorate in Texas and is distributed both along the border with Mexico and in the large metropolitan areas.
A decisive race for the balance of the Senate
The election between Talarico and Paxton has consequences that go beyond Texas. Republicans began these midterms with 53 seats in the Senate, compared with 47 for the Democratic bloc, so each constituency that changes party will be relevant in determining the composition of the Upper House.
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in the primaries against Senator John Cornyn, while Talarico has focused a large part of his campaign on the cost of living and on the economic consequences of the Administration Trump policies.
For now, the 64% attributed to Talarico corresponds to a provisional local result and not to the entirety of Texas. The outcome of the election will depend on the recount in the state’s 254 counties, whose progress continues during the Spanish early-morning hours.