The elections this Sunday in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will determine the composition of the new Landtag, the regional Parliament. The AfD arrives at the electoral day as one of the main forces in dispute, but a first place in votes does not automatically imply that it can form a Government.
The key will be in the number of seats that each party obtains and in the support they can gather later to elect the next minister-president.
How many seats are needed to govern?
The Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has 71 seats at minimum. This figure can increase if additional and compensatory mandates arise from the electoral system.
Therefore, if the Parliament remains at its minimum size, an absolute majority would require 36 deputies.
The exact number needed will depend, however, on the final composition of the new Landtag if the number of seats increases.
The second ballot is what marks the distribution
Voters have two votes. With the first, they choose a candidate from their constituency and with the second, a party list.
It is the second ballot that determines the proportional distribution of the seats among the formations. To participate in that distribution, parties must obtain at least 5% of the valid votes across the state, except for the exceptions provided by electoral legislation.
This means that the percentage of votes for the AfD cannot be directly translated into a fixed number of deputies before knowing the results of the other parties.
Winning does not mean governing
If the AfD comes in first place but does not achieve an absolute majority on its own, it would need to have sufficient parliamentary support to form a Government.
Here appears one of the main elements of these elections: the parties that are likely to enter the Landtag have so far ruled out a coalition with the AfD. Reuters and other media have pointed out that this political isolation limits the options for the formation to convert a first electoral position into a Government majority.
Therefore, an electoral victory for the AfD could translate into the largest number of seats without the formation necessarily obtaining the necessary support to elect its candidate as minister-president.
And if no one has a majority?
If no party reaches an absolute majority, the phase of negotiations to form a Government begins. Parties can negotiate a coalition that gathers the necessary seats to reach a parliamentary majority.
The arithmetic will depend on the final result and which formations exceed 5%. Therefore, parties with relatively small percentages can gain importance in the negotiations if their seats turn out to be necessary to achieve a majority.
The situation can also change if the total number of deputies increases due to the application of the mechanisms of additional mandates and compensation provided for in the electoral system.
The key will be in the seats, not just in the percentage of votes
During the election night, it will be necessary to distinguish between who gets more votes and who gathers a parliamentary majority.
The electoral authority will first publish the forecasts and subsequently the results of the counting. As the count progresses, the distribution of seats can be calculated and, with it, the different combinations that could allow forming a Government.