The future visit of King Felipe VI to Ceuta hangs over a scenario of questions. The issue was addressed this Monday during the meeting that the head of State and the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, had in an office in Zarzuela.
All, after the head of the Executive suggested in the morning on Cadena Ser that the monarch would visit the autonomous city when "the conditions are met". His hypothetical visit would have few precedents to anticipate Morocco's reaction, but the closest ended in a diplomatic crisis of 65 days.
Trip of Juan Carlos I
In November 2007, the trip of Juan Carlos I and Queen Sofía led Rabat to call its ambassador in Madrid for indefinite consultations. Almost 19 years later, the possibility that the current head of State travels to the autonomous city reappears at a particularly sensitive moment in relations with Morocco after the migration crisis in July.
The visit, in any case, still has no date nor is it organized. The Government spokesperson, Elma Saiz, explained this Tuesday that Pedro Sánchez and Felipe VI discussed the situation during their meeting, but she avoided revealing the content of the conversation.
Furthermore, Saiz specified this Tuesday that the trip is still not prepared and denied both that Moncloa has vetoed Felipe VI and that the President was reproaching the King for not having visited the city before.
The uncertainty is now on the other side of the Strait. Morocco has not officially announced how it would respond to a possible displacement of the head of the Spanish State. However, the precedents allow for a hypothetical scenario to be drawn.
Morocco withdrew its ambassador in 2007
To measure how far the situation could escalate, one must go back to November 2007. Juan Carlos I and Queen Sofía then made the first institutional visit of the Kings to Ceuta. They arrived on November 5, accompanied by the then Minister of Public Administrations, Elena Salgado, and were received by the president of the city, Juan Jesús Vivas, the Government delegate, and the general commander of Ceuta. The next day they traveled to Melilla.
The Moroccan reaction began even before the Kings set foot on Ceuta territory.
On November 2, three days before the visit, the Government of Morocco announced by instructions from Mohamed VI the calling for consultations "for an indefinite period" of its ambassador in Spain, Omar Azziman. Rabat described the trip as "regrettable" and referred again to Ceuta and Melilla as "occupied" cities.
The decision opened a crisis that would last more than two months. Spain maintained the trip. Juan Carlos I received the Scepter and the Golden Key of Ceuta and defended in his speech that the city had grown and prospered within the "pluralism and democracy that defines Spain." The official agenda of the Royal House preserves both the events and the photographs of that visit.
65 days to close the crisis
The Moroccan ambassador remained outside Madrid for 65 days. The unlocking did not come until January 2008. The then Minister of Foreign Affairs, Miguel Ángel Moratinos, traveled to Rabat and delivered to his Moroccan counterpart a letter from President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero addressed to Mohamed VI.
On January 7, 2008, Morocco announced the "immediate" return of Omar Azziman to Spain. The documentation from Moncloa from those days described the episode as a "diplomatic crisis that lasted 65 days".
The royal visit, therefore, did not provoke a break in diplomatic relations between the two countries, but it did represent one of the most forceful formal responses that Rabat could adopt without reaching that extreme: temporarily withdrawing its highest diplomatic representative.
Could it happen again now?
Although the precedent allows identifying the tools that Morocco has already used it does not guarantee that it will repeat them in 2026.
Rabat could formally express its protest, summon the Spanish ambassador to convey its displeasure, call its representative in Madrid for consultations, or temporarily lower certain political contacts. These are usual instruments of diplomatic pressure and some were already used in 2007.
The fundamental difference is that so far Morocco has not announced any of those measures in light of the possibility of a visit from Felipe VI. Likewise, the bilateral relationship is not the same as in 2007.
Spain and Morocco have deepened their cooperation in migration, security, trade, and border control in recent years. This interdependence has been especially evident during the Ceuta crisis.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, made the first visit of a Spanish Foreign Minister to the autonomous city on August 11. There he reaffirmed the Government's commitment to the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of Spain", while defending diplomatic cooperation with Morocco to manage the return of those who had entered irregularly.
The Moroccan political context adds another difference. The possible trip is proposed a few weeks before the legislative elections on September 23, which increases the sensitivity of any gesture related to Ceuta and Melilla within the political debate of the neighboring country.
However, despite the tightening of relations with Spain, Rabat maintains its claim of sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, which it considers part of Moroccan territory, a position that Madrid rejects and against which it defends the Spanish identity of both autonomous cities. In light of this claim, the visit of the head of State to Ceuta territory could be interpreted by Morocco as a declaration of intentions regarding the autonomous city from the Spanish State.
Felipe VI has never visited Ceuta as King
There is another particularity. Felipe VI has not made an official visit to Ceuta since he was proclaimed King in 2014.
The last presence of a Spanish head of State remains, therefore, that of Juan Carlos I in November 2007. The Royal House records that trip as the first institutional visit of the then Kings to Ceuta.
Now, almost two decades later, Sánchez believes there are reasons to repeat it. The Government maintains that there has been no veto against Felipe VI and assures that the trip will take place when circumstances allow, although this Tuesday it has acknowledged that "it is still not organized".
Until there is a date, the Moroccan reaction also belongs to the realm of uncertainties.