The victories of Lula in Brazil and of the list supported by students in Serbia question the reading that the rightward shift of youth is irreversible. In both countries, youth mobilization has been part of majorities that have blocked the way for right-wing forces. Its scope raises the question of whether we are witnessing signs of a broader reaction that could also become visible in Spain.
In Brazil, the National Union of Students launched the campaign "Students with Lula" after the first round and called for assemblies and activities outside of universities. The organization sought to bring the electoral conversation to neighborhoods and everyday spaces. Precisely, this involvement accompanied a comeback that came from the incorporation of voters who had abstained and from support coming from other candidacies.
Youth mobilization has been part of majorities that have blocked the way for right-wing forces
In Serbia, the protests triggered by the collapse of the awning at the Novi Sad station, which caused sixteen deaths, led to a candidacy supported by students. After almost two years of mobilization against corruption and authoritarianism, that list has obtained a parliamentary majority against Vuči's alliance, with a turnout of over 70%.
The difference matters to understand what could be changing. Brazilian students were involved in the continuity of a leftist president; Serbians pushed for the displacement of an established power and ran with an agenda focused on combating corruption and restoring the functioning of institutions.
My hypothesis is that the most interesting connection lies in the recovery of trust in collective action. The feeling that an adversary has secured victory can discourage even those who reject it, but sustained mobilization capable of attracting other sectors can alter that expectation. When those who doubted begin to consider that their participation will have consequences, the idea of what is possible also changes. There could be an international contagion, even if each country maintains its own conflicts.
Could we be witnessing a global youth wave? The truth is that two elections do not prove a statistical correlation, and attributing a decisive effect to youth requires analyzing their participation and preferences, in addition to the transfers between candidacies.
Let's look at Spain. The polls from early October show a growth of Vox among young voters. This implantation exists and is part of the scenario that would need to be explained if a reaction in another direction were to occur later. The presence of young people at a demonstration does not, by itself, represent an entire generation. Housing also introduces a material dimension that crosses partisan identities and different generations.
The anger of those who cannot access housing may be directed against the Executive for its results, although it may also question other administrations or the behavior of property owners. That is why it is risky to interpret any youth protest as an announcement of a favorable vote for the Government, since the discontent may fuel different political options and also lead to abstention.
Let us not forget that in France street violence comes from a student protest against educational policy, and the disturbances in Barcelona and Bilbao have been led by young people. However, to assess a possible broader movement, it would be necessary to observe whether the protests achieve continuity and links between countries, and whether that activity subsequently corresponds with changes in electoral participation.
The eventual connection with Spain would hinge on the shift from individual impotence to the shared expectation of being able to change something. This change in mood may affect those who had decided to stay on the sidelines and make an apparently settled election competitive again. Brazil and Serbia have opened up that possibility. Those who rely on an automatic victory for the right will also have to take it into account.