Pedro Sánchez faces the last day of his reflection pending also on the polls. According to laSexta reported on Friday, the president has commissioned quick surveys to measure the effect of the rejection of the housing decrees and his possibilities in the face of an electoral advance.
At the same time, the CIS chaired by José Félix Tezanos is asking about housing and electoral behavior, according to information published over the weekend.
The experts consulted by DEMÓCRATA do not rule out that the data from the agency could weigh in on his decision if he were to know them. It is his reading of the political moment: Sánchez would need to verify that the discontent over housing opens an opportunity for him at the polls.
What the CIS is asking
The questions disseminated over the weekend address two particularly relevant issues for that decision: what citizens think of the housing measures and what they would do if they had to vote.
Several media reported on Saturday questions about the eviction of Maricarmen, the protection of vulnerable people against the enforcement of contracts, and the priority of housing as a right or as a market good. It also includes inquiries about support for the measures of the two decrees rejected by Congress.
For its part, OKDIARIO published a recording attributed to a call from the CIS to a citizen who had shared his experience on social media. In it, they ask about the likelihood of going to vote, from zero to ten; about the chosen party and the second option; about the memory of 23J and whether the interviewee would repeat his vote.
A very pertinent question also appears on the eve of a possible campaign: "When do you usually decide which political party or coalition you are going to vote for?"
These are common electoral questions. Their presence does not alone demonstrate that there is an extraordinary operation to prepare for an advance. Narciso Michavila, president of GAD3, recalled on Al Rojo Vivo that the CIS includes questions about voting in its studies. What interests them now is the moment in which they are being asked and the possibility of cross-referencing them with the responses about housing.
Supporting the measures does not equate to voting for the PSOE
A respondent can be in favor of stopping an eviction and still want to change the government. They can also support a decree, blame those who rejected it, and abstain when the election comes. To assess an advance, Sánchez would need to know how much those supports resemble an electoral majority.
There, questions about participation, loyalty, and second choice may be useful. They would allow exploring whether former socialist voters are willing to return, if the PSOE wins at the expense of its partners, or if it manages to attract support from outside its bloc. Growing by absorbing leftist votes could improve the party's position without necessarily bringing it closer to another investiture.
According to sources close to the president cited by some media, Sánchez wants to know his chances of coming in first even if he cannot govern. This introduces another possibility: calling for elections to save the PSOE's position, even with the Government at risk.
The experts consulted by DEMÓCRATA describe a president whose instinct is fed by data. Before jumping, he needs "real water in the pool": signs that the shift in conversation towards housing has an electoral translation. In that interpretation, he would only take the risk if he believed he has a sufficient opportunity and can seize it before his adversaries adapt their response.
The warning from Catalonia that could stop the advance
The Ipsos poll published this Sunday by La Vanguardia offers an adverse signal for the socialists. The PSC would drop from 42 to 30 seats and would tie in deputies with Aliança Catalana. Junts would fall from 35 to 16. The work, based on 2,000 interviews, was conducted between September 23 and October 1.
The date matters: the survey ended before the rejection of the decrees on Friday and the mobilizations on Saturday. Furthermore, it measures elections to the Parlament, not to the Congress. It describes socialist wear in Catalonia, but does not allow knowing if Sánchez's latest maneuver is changing the vote for general elections.
If Tezanos confirms that trend, the logical thing would be not to call for elections. At least, for now, while he criticizes a possible change of support regarding the housing issue. That reading would require checking the deterioration in specific data from general elections. If these showed a recovery after the mobilization for housing, the calculation would be different.
The precedent of the other reflection
The CIS already conducted a survey during Sánchez's reflection days in April 2024. The official study number 3,500 collected 1,809 telephone interviews on April 26 and asked what the president should do at the end of that pause: resign, submit to a vote of confidence, call elections, or continue governing after giving explanations. It also included voting intention.
On this occasion, the information and the fragments disseminated allow knowing part of the questions, but not the results. The consulted experts expect new clues this Sunday. It would be logical for that survey to be released in the coming hours, just as happened when the previous one was conducted on the reflection day.
Tezanos could provide data capable of reinforcing or cooling the electoral temptation. Sánchez will decide how much he trusts them and what risk he is willing to take. He keeps looking at the basket; before shooting, he will want to know if he has options to score.