Does Tezanos have the final word today on the electoral advance? The CIS asks while Sánchez decides

The agency probes the willingness to vote and the support for housing measures. The experts consulted by DEMÓCRATA believe that this data could weigh in the final decision, while the Catalan survey by Ipsos released today by La Vanguardia adds a warning for the socialists.

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Pedro Sánchez faces the last day of his reflection pending also on the polls. According to laSexta reported on Friday, the president has commissioned quick surveys to measure the effect of the rejection of the housing decrees and his possibilities in the face of an electoral advance.

At the same time, the CIS chaired by José Félix Tezanos is asking about housing and electoral behavior, according to information published over the weekend.

The experts consulted by DEMÓCRATA do not rule out that the data from the agency could weigh in on his decision if he were to know them. It is his reading of the political moment: Sánchez would need to verify that the discontent over housing opens an opportunity for him at the polls.

What the CIS is asking

The questions disseminated over the weekend address two particularly relevant issues for that decision: what citizens think of the housing measures and what they would do if they had to vote.

Several media reported on Saturday questions about the eviction of Maricarmen, the protection of vulnerable people against the enforcement of contracts, and the priority of housing as a right or as a market good. It also includes inquiries about support for the measures of the two decrees rejected by Congress.

For its part, OKDIARIO published a recording attributed to a call from the CIS to a citizen who had shared his experience on social media. In it, they ask about the likelihood of going to vote, from zero to ten; about the chosen party and the second option; about the memory of 23J and whether the interviewee would repeat his vote.

A very pertinent question also appears on the eve of a possible campaign: "When do you usually decide which political party or coalition you are going to vote for?"

These are common electoral questions. Their presence does not alone demonstrate that there is an extraordinary operation to prepare for an advance. Narciso Michavila, president of GAD3, recalled on Al Rojo Vivo that the CIS includes questions about voting in its studies. What interests them now is the moment in which they are being asked and the possibility of cross-referencing them with the responses about housing.

Supporting the measures does not equate to voting for the PSOE

A respondent can be in favor of stopping an eviction and still want to change the government. They can also support a decree, blame those who rejected it, and abstain when the election comes. To assess an advance, Sánchez would need to know how much those supports resemble an electoral majority.

There, questions about participation, loyalty, and second choice may be useful. They would allow exploring whether former socialist voters are willing to return, if the PSOE wins at the expense of its partners, or if it manages to attract support from outside its bloc. Growing by absorbing leftist votes could improve the party's position without necessarily bringing it closer to another investiture.

According to sources close to the president cited by some media, Sánchez wants to know his chances of coming in first even if he cannot govern. This introduces another possibility: calling for elections to save the PSOE's position, even with the Government at risk.

The experts consulted by DEMÓCRATA describe a president whose instinct is fed by data. Before jumping, he needs "real water in the pool": signs that the shift in conversation towards housing has an electoral translation. In that interpretation, he would only take the risk if he believed he has a sufficient opportunity and can seize it before his adversaries adapt their response.

The warning from Catalonia that could stop the advance

The Ipsos poll published this Sunday by La Vanguardia offers an adverse signal for the socialists. The PSC would drop from 42 to 30 seats and would tie in deputies with Aliança Catalana. Junts would fall from 35 to 16. The work, based on 2,000 interviews, was conducted between September 23 and October 1.

The date matters: the survey ended before the rejection of the decrees on Friday and the mobilizations on Saturday. Furthermore, it measures elections to the Parlament, not to the Congress. It describes socialist wear in Catalonia, but does not allow knowing if Sánchez's latest maneuver is changing the vote for general elections.

If Tezanos confirms that trend, the logical thing would be not to call for elections. At least, for now, while he criticizes a possible change of support regarding the housing issue. That reading would require checking the deterioration in specific data from general elections. If these showed a recovery after the mobilization for housing, the calculation would be different.

The precedent of the other reflection

The CIS already conducted a survey during Sánchez's reflection days in April 2024. The official study number 3,500 collected 1,809 telephone interviews on April 26 and asked what the president should do at the end of that pause: resign, submit to a vote of confidence, call elections, or continue governing after giving explanations. It also included voting intention.

On this occasion, the information and the fragments disseminated allow knowing part of the questions, but not the results. The consulted experts expect new clues this Sunday. It would be logical for that survey to be released in the coming hours, just as happened when the previous one was conducted on the reflection day.

Tezanos could provide data capable of reinforcing or cooling the electoral temptation. Sánchez will decide how much he trusts them and what risk he is willing to take. He keeps looking at the basket; before shooting, he will want to know if he has options to score.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What is the current parliamentary status of the housing decrees rejected by Congress?

According to parliamentary information and recent reports, the housing decrees rejected by Congress are currently in a common situation: they were not ratified, have been repealed, and their processing as royal decree-laws is concluded. They are no longer ongoing as ordinary legislative initiatives, and any recovery of their content would require new initiatives (bills or legislative proposals).

In the XV Legislature, the most visible case is the two royal decree-laws on housing approved by the Council of Ministers on September 29, 2026 (the so-called "Maricarmen decree" package). These are the Royal Decree-Law 26/2026, on urgent measures for the protection of the social function of housing and the expansion of affordable housing supply, and the Royal Decree-Law 27/2026, on urgent measures to strengthen the stability of rental contracts for primary residences.

Both were submitted for ratification in an extraordinary Plenary session on October 2, 2026. In that session, Congress voted against their ratification, with majorities mainly including PP, Vox, Junts, and UPN, and in the second decree also other groups such as PNV, as reported by multiple chronicles (Demócrata, El Confidencial, Greenpeace).

From a parliamentary point of view, this result has an immediate and clear effect: since they were not ratified, the royal decree-laws are repealed and removed from the legal system. They do not continue as ordinary bills, and any recovery would require new initiatives.

Therefore, the current parliamentary status of these two housing decrees is that of rejected initiatives with concluded processing. They do not continue as derived bills because the Plenary did not agree to such conversion after the ratification vote. However, there is political debate about "reactivating" them by other means: for example, Sumar has proposed registering new initiatives to rescue part of their content, but these would be new texts, not a continuation of the repealed decree-law (Demócrata).

Besides these two cases, there is at least one other recent precedent: the Royal Decree-Law 8/2026, of March 20, on rental measures in response to the economic and social consequences of the Iran War. According to the official Congress registry (initiative 130/000039), the Plenary also rejected its ratification on April 28, 2026, with a vote titled "Ratification of the Royal Decree-Law" (166 yes, 177 no, 5 abstentions), and "processing was concluded" on that same date. There is no record of subsequent processing as a bill on that specific text.

Legally, the same logic applies in all these cases: the decree-law was in force from its publication in the BOE until the moment of rejection; the effects produced while it was in force do not automatically disappear, but the norm can no longer generate new effects. This is especially relevant in housing matters for extraordinary extensions of rental contracts or judicial decisions in eviction proceedings adopted under the decree during its hours or days of validity, as detailed in the cited Demócrata analysis.

From a strictly parliamentary perspective, the current picture can be summarized as follows: all housing decrees that Congress has rejected in this legislature are "fallen" as decree-laws; their files are marked as concluded and are no longer being processed in that form. What remains open is the political and parliamentary space for the Government or groups to promote alternative initiatives (bills or legislative proposals) that recover, modify, or replace those measures.

Consequently, if you are interested in following the future evolution of the topic, what matters is no longer the "processing" of those repealed decrees — which is closed — but the new housing initiatives that may be registered in Congress and the Senate to respond to the housing emergency and the debate on rentals and evictions that these rejections have fully opened.

What are the legal powers and responsibilities of the CIS president in the preparation and publication of surveys?

The powers of the president of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) regarding surveys are mainly defined in the Law 39/1995, of December 19, on the Organization of the CIS, and in the Royal Decree 1214/1997, of July 18, on the organization of the CIS, amended by Royal Decrees 923/2009, 485/2022, and 166/2025.

1. General framework and institutional position

The CIS is an autonomous administrative body whose purpose is "the scientific study of Spanish society" (Law 39/1995 and art. 1 RD 1214/1997). The royal decree specifies that the Center will act with "objectivity, neutrality, and impartiality", equal access to its data, respect for citizens' rights and statistical secrecy, as well as transparency, participation, and scientific rigor.

The Presidency is the highest single-person body. The article related to the CIS structure establishes that "the body shall be headed by a Presidency, whose holder shall be appointed and removed by the Council of Ministers, by royal decree issued at the proposal of the holder of the Ministry of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes". Its acts "exhaust the administrative route", emphasizing its position as the highest authority of the body.

Additionally, the Center is subject to effectiveness control by the Ministry of the Presidency, which verifies the fulfillment of objectives and proper use of resources (art. 4 RD 1214/1997), and is governed by Law 12/1989 on the Public Statistical Function, Regulation (EU) 2016/679, and Organic Law 3/2018 on data protection.

2. General functions of the Presidency

The corresponding article of RD 1214/1997, in its current wording, assigns the Presidency, among others, the following general functions:

  • "Exercise the superior management of the body, promote and coordinate the center's services, in order to fulfill its functions".
  • "Hold the official representation of the body", especially before other national and foreign centers.
  • "Propose the draft budget" and "execute the CIS budget".
  • "Sign agreements on sociological research" and "contract on behalf of the body, arrange necessary expenses, and order payments".
  • Exercise personnel powers attributed by public function regulations.
3. Annual study program and report

Article 3 of Law 39/1995 and article 4 of RD 1214/1997 provide that the CIS develops its activities according to an annual program of studies, surveys, and other actions, adjusted to the budget.

RD 1214/1997 specifically assigns to the Presidency:

  • "Prepare the center's annual activity program and coordinate its development, according to the functions of article 3 and budget allocations".
  • "Approve the report on the execution of the program for the previous year and, through the Ministry of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes, submit it to the Congress of Deputies and the Senate".

That is, the Presidency designs and approves the study program (including barometers and other surveys) and reports annually to the General Courts.

4. Methodology, fieldwork, and data exploitation

The regulations detail methodological and operational principles but distribute tasks: the Presidency sets the strategic framework and ultimate responsibility, while the General Directorate of Coordination and Research assumes technical-scientific direction.

According to RD 1214/1997, this General Directorate is responsible for:

  • "Planning, coordinating, and monitoring the center's research program and actions, with special attention to principles of applied empirical research...".
  • "Executing research projects that the center must carry out".
  • "Directing the execution of fieldwork" and "directing the data processing leading to the computer exploitation of research".
  • "Preparing reports of the corresponding studies conducted by the center".

The Presidency, as the highest responsible, may delegate functions and supervises this activity, but the regulation reinforces the technical autonomy of the research unit, subject to principles of universalism, disinterest, organized skepticism, transparency, and data protection (art. 5 RD 1214/1997 and art. 3 Law 39/1995).

5. Publication and dissemination of surveys

Law 39/1995 and RD 1214/1997 regulate the survey cycle:

  • Surveys "will be entered into the center's database once their technical preparation process has concluded" and availability of results requires verification, cleaning, anonymization, cataloging, and loading (maximum period of three months from the end of fieldwork).
  • The CIS is recognized a "preferential right to disseminate its scientific activity", so it has priority to disseminate results before microdata enter the publicly accessible database.

Regarding the Presidency's specific functions in dissemination:

  • Every three months, "the President of the center will submit to the Congress of Deputies and the Senate [...] a detailed list of completed works entered into its database" and, when appropriate, will inform the regional legislative assemblies.
  • Also, "submit [...] the content of completed works entered into its database, as well as the provisional advance of survey results related to voting intention, party and political leader evaluations" to the General Courts and regional chambers.
  • Another specific provision indicates that the Presidency will send these provisional advances within no more than fifteen days from the completion of fieldwork and coding.

In summary, the CIS Presidency does not normatively intervene in manipulating survey content but exercises superior management, approval of the program and report, institutional relations with Government and Courts, and ultimate responsibility in dissemination and submission of results, always under the principles of objectivity, neutrality, transparency, and statistical secrecy imposed by law.

What legal requirements must a CIS survey meet to be considered valid and official?

A CIS survey or barometer is considered "valid and official" when it is conducted within the legal framework regulating the organization itself and electoral surveys, and respects a series of methodological, transparency, and data protection guarantees. It is not just that the CIS signs it, but that it meets those legal and statutory requirements.

1. Basic legal framework of the CIS

The CIS's activity is mainly supported by:

  • Law 39/1995, on the Organization of the Sociological Research Center, which defines its nature, functions, and principles of action, including the regime of surveys and data access.
  • Royal Decree 1214/1997, on the organization of the CIS, amended by Royal Decree 485/2022, adapting it to the current regime of autonomous bodies and reinforcing its status as an official statistical service of the General State Administration.
  • Law 12/1989, on the Public Statistical Function, and data protection regulations (Regulation (EU) 2016/679 and Organic Law 3/2018), applicable due to its status as a statistical service.
  • Specific rules on access to the CIS Database (Order PRE/3188/2008) and on personal data files including those of the CIS.
  • For electoral periods, the LOREG (especially article 69) and Instruction 1/2024 of the Central Electoral Board on voting intention surveys by public bodies.

2. Principles and guarantees of CIS surveys

According to Law 39/1995 and its regulatory development, every CIS survey must comply with principles that are conditions of validity:

  • Objectivity, neutrality, and impartiality in its action, with a vocation to serve the general interest and without partisan bias.
  • Voluntariness of responses, especially when asking about political, ideological, religious opinions or aspects related to personal or family privacy.
  • Research transparency: the respondent must be informed about which body conducts the study, the purpose of the survey, and the guarantees protecting their identity and privacy.
  • Specialty in the use of information: data obtained can only be used for research purposes and within the statutory objectives of the CIS.
  • Personal data protection and statistical secrecy: adoption, in all research phases, of measures to guarantee data anonymization and the impossibility of individual identification.

3. Methodological and publication requirements

For a survey to be considered an official CIS product, additional technical-procedural obligations must be met:

  • Annual program and parliamentary control: research is integrated into an annual CIS program, whose execution is reported to the General Courts through a report in the first quarter of each year.
  • Fieldwork with guarantees: the CIS uses its own field network and services, possibly contracting part of the work to third parties, but always respecting statutory principles (objectivity, quality, representativeness, etc.).
  • Entry into the Database: once technical preparation is finished, surveys are incorporated into the CIS database along with necessary documentation (macrodata, microdata, and methodological documentation).
  • Availability deadlines: the law sets a maximum period (generally three months from the end of fieldwork and coding) to complete verification, cleaning, anonymization, and data loading so that they can be available.
  • Public and equal access: any natural or legal person can request access to the database data under regulatory terms, without prejudice to the CIS's preferential right to disseminate its scientific results.
  • Technical sheet and methodological transparency: in practice, the official publication of a barometer is accompanied by a technical sheet with the study universe, sampling design, sample size, margin of error, dates and mode of fieldwork, a condition derived from both internal regulations and general public statistical function requirements.

4. Specific requirements during electoral periods

When the survey contains questions on voting intention or evaluation of parties and leaders during electoral periods, specific requirements are added:

  • Law 39/1995 obliges the CIS, during electoral periods, to comply with what the electoral administration (Central Electoral Board) determines and, in particular, with the regime of article 69 of the LOREG.
  • Instruction 1/2024 of the CEB requires public bodies (including the CIS) conducting voting intention surveys to notify the CEB before starting fieldwork, with minimum technical details: sampling system, expected sample size, margin of error, representativeness level, selection procedure, survey technique, and schedule.
  • They must make results available to political forces participating in the survey scope within a short period, ensuring equal access to information.
  • The prohibition on publishing or disseminating electoral polls during the five days prior to voting established by the LOREG applies.
  • The CEB ensures there are no falsifications, concealments, or deliberate manipulations of disseminated data.

In summary, a CIS survey is "valid and official" when it fits within its statutory programming, respects principles of objectivity, transparency, and statistical secrecy, meets methodological and publication guarantees (including the technical sheet and access to the Database), and, if electoral, strictly follows the additional rules set by the LOREG and the Central Electoral Board.

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What two main topics does the CIS address in the surveys conducted during the last weekend?

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