The third wave of IMOP Insights for El Confidencial, published this Sunday 8 November confirms a change in trend with respect to its previous poll ahead of the general elections on 29-N. The PSOE loses seven seats and falls to 106 deputies, while the PP recovers three and reaches 126. Vox, for its part, retreats by two representatives and stands at 70.
The survey was conducted between 2 and 6 November, after the train accident in Urda and during the political crisis that led to the resignation of Óscar Puente. It is therefore one of the first complete measurements that make it possible to observe electoral developments in the days after the incident.
The PP would be able to win the elections again with 29.8% of the votes, compared with 25.9% for the PSOE and 19.9% for Vox. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s lead over Pedro Sánchez increases to 3.9 points, compared with the 1.4 points recorded in the previous IMOP poll.
The combined total of PP and Vox would reach 196 seats, twenty above the absolute majority. Frente Amplio would obtain 13 representatives, Podemos one, and Adelante Andalucía four.
| Candidacy | % vote | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 29.8% | 126 |
| PSOE | 25.9% | 106 |
| Vox | 19.9% | 70 |
| Frente Amplio | 8.1% | 13 |
| ERC | — | 11 |
| EH Bildu | — | 7 |
| Junts | — | 4 |
| PNV | — | 4 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 1.8% | 4 |
| BNG | — | 3 |
| Podemos | 1.2% | 1 |
| Coalición Canaria | — | 1 |
| SALF | 1.7% | 0 |
| TOTAL | — | 350 |
Source: IMOP Insights for El Confidencial. Fieldwork: 2-6 November 2026. Sample: 1,000 interviews. —: percentage not available in the breakdown consulted. UPN appears integrated in the PP candidacy.
What changes compared to the last IMOP poll: the PSOE falls, the PP regains ground, and Vox backs down
The comparison with the second wave of IMOP, published on 23 October, shows a significant shift in just twenty days.
Back then, the PSOE was in a recovery phase and had reached 113 seats and 27.1% of the votes. The PP, on the other hand, had dropped to 123 seats and 28.5%, while Vox stood at 72 representatives and 20%.
Now, the trend is practically reversed.
The PSOE loses 1.2 points of vote share and seven deputies, while the PP gains 1.3 points and three seats. Vox gives up one tenth and two representatives.
This development widens the gap between the two main parties from 10 to 20 seats. It also increases the vote-distance by percentage from 1.4 to 3.9 points.
The result implies a brake on the socialist recovery that the previous wave had registered, although the PP still remains below the 130 seats attributed to it by the first IMOP poll of October.
PP and Vox only gain one seat, but increase their advantage over the left by six
One of the most interesting data points from the poll is found in the evolution of the blocs.
PP and Vox go from 195 to 196 seats. That is, they improve their combined position by just one seat, despite the socialist drop.
However, the total of PSOE, Frente Amplio, Podemos, and Adelante Andalucía falls from 129 to 124 seats, five fewer.
As a result, the difference between the two blocs increases from 66 to 72 seats. This six-seat expansion does not mean that everyone has moved from the left to the right, but rather that it is obtained by comparing the gain of one bloc with the loss of five from the other.
On mobile, swipe horizontally to see the changes.
| Party | Vote 23-O | Vote 8-N | Diff. pp | Seats 23-O | Seats 8-N | Seat diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 28,5% | 29,8% | +1,3 | 123 | 126 | +3 |
| PSOE | 27,1% | 25,9% | −1,2 | 113 | 106 | −7 |
| Vox | 20,0% | 19,9% | −0,1 | 72 | 70 | −2 |
| Frente Amplio | 8,9% | 8,1% | −0,8 | 14 | 13 | −1 |
| ERC | 2,2% | — | — | 8 | 11 | +3 |
| EH Bildu | 1,3% | — | — | 6 | 7 | +1 |
| Junts | 1,2% | — | — | 4 | 4 | = |
| PNV | 1,0% | — | — | 5 | 4 | −1 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 1,0% | 1,8% | +0,8 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| BNG | 1,1% | — | — | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| Podemos | 1,9% | 1,2% | −0,7 | 1 | 1 | = |
| Coalición Canaria | 0,6% | — | — | 1 | 1 | = |
| SALF | 1,2% | 1,7% | +0,5 | 0 | 0 | = |
| PP + Vox | 48,5% | 49,7% | +1,2 | 195 | 196 | +1 |
Source: IMOP Insights / El Confidencial, waves published on October 23 and November 8, 2026. Diff. pp: variation in percentage points; seat diff.: change of seats.
In terms of vote percentage, PP and Vox move from 48,5% to 49,7%, up 1,2 points.
If Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF) is included, which gets 1,7% but still has no representation, the three formations reach 51,4% of the estimated vote.
On the other hand, PSOE, Frente Amplio, Podemos, and Adelante Andalucía add up to 37%. The distance between the two groups is therefore 14,4 percentage points.
Therefore, the absolute majority of PP and Vox still remains comfortable. But the net parliamentary movement between the two polls is considerably smaller than the deterioration in the left’s relative position.
The PSOE loses seven seats, but ERC and Adelante Andalucía each gain three
The evolution of territorial candidacies introduces another especially relevant element.
While the PSOE loses seven representatives, ERC goes from eight to eleven MPs and Adelante Andalucía increases from one to four.
EH Bildu also improves, from six to seven, and the BNG secures an additional representative, up to three.
The PNV moves back from five to four, while Junts retains its four MPs and Coalición Canaria keeps one.
Taken together, ERC, Adelante Andalucía, EH Bildu and BNG gain eight seats. If the one that the PNV loses is deducted, the balance comes to seven additional MPs, exactly those that the PSOE loses.
However, it does reveal a political phenomenon: the PSOE’s setback is not fully reflected in a loss of representation for the other left-wing and territorial space formations.
If PSOE, Frente Amplio, Podemos, Adelante Andalucía, ERC, EH Bildu, Junts, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria are added up, the total goes from 155 to 154 MPs between the two surveys.
It is a hypothetical sum, not an committed political majority. But it allows one to appreciate that the expanded parliamentary space that Sánchez could seek for an investiture varies by scarcely one seat, despite the socialist drop.
The difficulty remains extraordinary: with 154 representatives, it would be 22 seats short of an absolute majority.
Comparison with the 23-J: Vox wins 37 MPs, the PSOE loses 15 and the PP loses 11
The comparison with the general elections of 23 July 2023 leaves a different picture from that of the moves in these last few weeks.
The PP won those elections with 137 MPs and 33.1% of the votes. Now, IMOP attributes 126 seats and 29.8%, which represents a loss of eleven MPs and 3.3 points.
The PSOE would move from the 121 seats and 31.7% achieved in 2023 to 106 representatives and 25.9%. Its setback would be fifteen MPs and 5.8 percentage points.
Vox accounts for the biggest growth among the three major parties. The formation of Santiago Abascal would go from 33 to 70 seats, a gain of 37 MPs, while its vote share would rise from 12.4% to 19.9%.
On mobile, swipe horizontally to see all columns.
| Party | Vote 23-J | IMOP vote | Diff. pp | 23-J seats | IMOP seats | Diff. seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33,1% | 29,8% | −3,3 | 137 | 126 | −11 |
| PSOE | 31,7% | 25,9% | −5,8 | 121 | 106 | −15 |
| Vox | 12,4% | 19,9% | +7,5 | 33 | 70 | +37 |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio * | 12,3% | 8,1% | −4,2* | 31 | 13 | −18* |
| ERC | 1,9% | — | — | 7 | 11 | +4 |
| EH Bildu | 1,4% | — | — | 6 | 7 | +1 |
| Junts | 1,6% | — | — | 7 | 4 | −3 |
| PNV | 1,1% | — | — | 5 | 4 | −1 |
| BNG | 0,6% | — | — | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| Adelante Andalucía | — | 1,8% | n/c | 0 | 4 | +4 |
| Podemos | In Sumar | 1,2% | n/c | In Sumar | 1 | n/c |
| Coalición Canaria | 0,5% | — | — | 1 | 1 | = |
| UPN | 0,2% | Integrated into PP | n/c | 1 | Integrated | n/c |
| PP + Vox | 45,5% | 49,7% | +4,2 | 170 | 196 | +26 |
Source: official results of the general elections of July 23, 2023 and IMOP Insights / El Confidencial, November 8, 2026. The 2023 percentages are rounded to one decimal place.
This means that, even though the PP loses eleven seats compared to 2023, Vox’s advance allows the overall right to significantly improve its parliamentary representation.
The 170 deputies that PP and Vox obtained in the last elections would become 196, a gain of 26 seats. If the UPN deputy elected separately in Navarra in 2023 is added, the comparison goes from 171 to 196, with an improvement of 25.
The left’s setback compared to 2023: from Sumar’s 31 deputies to 18 across three candidacies
The other structural change is on the left of the PSOE.
Sumar obtained 31 seats in the general elections of 23-J, in a candidacy that included Podemos.
In the new IMOP survey, Frente Amplio would get 13 deputies, Podemos one, and Adelante Andalucía four. The total would reach 18 representatives, thirteen fewer than those obtained by Sumar in 2023.
In terms of votes, the three candidacies would gather 11,1%, versus the 12,3% achieved then by Sumar.
The comparison is not completely homogeneous because of changes in the coalitions, but it points to a significant loss of parliamentary effectiveness: a relatively small difference in the share of votes can produce a much larger drop in seats.
The Spanish electoral system, with provincial distribution and electoral districts of unequal size, can particularly penalize the fragmentation of candidacies in provinces that allocate fewer representatives.
The consequence is that the PSOE would face a parliamentary situation that is far more complicated than in 2023, even if it managed to recover part of the ground it lost during the campaign.
How much has Urda punished the PSOE in the IMOP poll?
The Urda rail accident occurred on October 28, while the fieldwork for the new IMOP survey was conducted between November 2 and 6.
The investigation therefore includes opinions after the accident and, in part, after the resignation of Óscar Puente, announced on November 3. It also coincides with the information about the UCO investigation into Adif Alta Velocidad.
The drop of seven seats and 1.2 points for the PSOE compared to the previous wave is compatible with political wear and tear during this crisis. But the poll does not allow assigning all of this loss exclusively to the accident or to the minister’s resignation.
The sample consists of 1,000 interviews and the two waves compare different groups of respondents. Individual movements of just over one point should be interpreted taking into account statistical uncertainty.
The result becomes more interesting when observing the joint evolution: the PSOE recovery that IMOP detected on October 23 is interrupted, the PP gains ground again, and Vox maintains a level of support close to 20%.
Three weeks before the general elections, the main change that this poll draws is the increase in the PP’s advantage over the PSOE, while the right-wing bloc maintains an absolute majority of more than 190 seats.
IMOP versus the Demócrata polling average: the PSOE almost matches, but the PP gets seven fewer seats
The latest comparison makes it possible to place the new survey in the context of the overall set of electoral estimates.
The Demócrata polling average of November 7, prior to the publication of this third wave of IMOP, puts the PP at 31.0% of the votes and 133 deputies; the PSOE at 26.2% and 107 seats; and Vox at 19.5% and 68 representatives.
The most significant difference appears in the PP. IMOP attributes seven fewer deputies and 1.2 fewer percentage points than the average.
By contrast, the PSOE is practically aligned with the average: 106 deputies versus 107 and 25.9% versus 26.2%.
Vox obtains two more seats than in the average, while Frente Amplio reaches thirteen representatives, five above the eight of Demócrata’s aggregate.
The combined result leaves PP and Vox with 196 seats, compared with the 201 that the average reports. It is five fewer MPs, although both estimates agree on attributing an absolute majority to the right.
With three weeks to go until 29-N, IMOP points to a recovery for the PP and a deterioration for the PSOE after the Urda crisis, but it keeps both parties in a position lower than the one they obtained in 2023. Vox, meanwhile, remains the main beneficiary of the electoral transformation of the legislature, with more than double the number of MPs it achieved in the last general election.
See here the technical profile and the survey in El Confidencial