133 deputies for the PP, with 31.6% of the vote; 111 for the PSOE, with 26.9%; 64 for Vox, with 18.7%; eight for the Sumar space, with 6.3%; two for Podemos, with 3.1%; and eight for ERC, with 2.2%. The remaining candidacies would gather 24 representatives. This is the starting point of an exploratory simulation built from the average of polls from Demócrata on October 21.
By blocs, PP and Vox would sum 197 deputies and 50.3% of the vote. PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would jointly reach 121 seats and 36.3%. ERC and the other candidacies would complete the Congress with 32 representatives and the remaining 13.4%.
There is an essential distinction: the percentages come from the average of Demócrata, prepared with the latest studies from 15 institutes over 30 days. The seats have been calculated for this exercise by transferring those supports to the provinces according to the territorial distribution of 2023 and applying the distribution of deputies from 2026.
The model simplifies the candidacies and does not incorporate the current territorial agreements between the different organizations. It allows examining the mechanical effect of adding ballots, but its absolute figures may change when the final map of lists is introduced.
The PP would remain first in seats despite the PSOE–Frente Amplio pact in small provinces
The PP would continue to be the leading force in deputies if PSOE and Frente Amplio shared candidacy in the 33 provinces that elect between two and six representatives. In this simulation, the popular party would obtain 131 seats and 31.6% of the national vote, compared to the 124 deputies that PSOE and Frente Amplio would gather between their own and joint lists. Both spaces would sum more votes than the PP —33.2%, a lead of 1.6 points— but would achieve seven seats less. That percentage corresponds to the sum of the two forces, not to PSOE separately.
Vox would achieve 64 deputies and 18.7% of the votes. Its sum with the PP would reach 195 representatives and 50.3%, maintaining the absolute majority. For its part, Podemos would obtain two deputies and 3.1%, raising the PSOE–Frente Amplio–Podemos total to 126 seats and 36.3%. ERC and the other candidacies would gather the remaining 29 representatives.
Within the PSOE–Frente Amplio space, the shared candidacies would achieve 52 deputies; the PSOE's own lists outside the agreement, 64; and those of Frente Amplio, eight. The deputies from the common lists cannot be individually attributed to each party without knowing their candidates and positions.
These figures are conditioned results of a simplified model based on the average of Demócrata and the territorial distribution of the vote in 2023. They assume the complete preservation of support and do not incorporate the current territorial agreements: they do not constitute a validated electoral forecast.
The starting point: party by party
To explore the possible agreement with PSOE, this exercise uses that 6.3% as an approximation to the space of Frente Amplio. It is a working hypothesis: it does not mean that both brands have exactly the same territorial composition.
| Party or space | Vote | Simulated seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.6% | 133 |
| PSOE | 26.9% | 111 |
| Vox | 18.7% | 64 |
| Sumar / approximation to Frente Amplio | 6.3% | 8 |
| Podemos | 3.1% | 2 |
| ERC | 2.2% | 8 |
| Rest of candidacies | 11.2% | 24 |
| Total | 100% | 350 |
The percentages correspond to the average of Democrat from October 21, 2026. The seats are an independent exploratory calculation, not an estimate published by the average. Absolute majority: 176 deputies.
In the territorial distribution used as a reference, those 24 remaining seats would correspond to EH Bildu -seven-, Junts -seven-, PNV -six-, BNG -two-, Coalición Canaria -one- and UPN -one-. For these formations, the electoral weight of 2023 is preserved: the image of the average does not offer updated individual percentages.
What would change with the agreement
El Confidencial reports this Thursday on contacts between PSOE and Frente Amplio to present common lists in constituencies that distribute fewer than seven deputies. The information points to territories such as Cantabria, Almería, Badajoz, and Toledo.
No agreement has been announced. The information contrasts with the public denials of both organizations and with the insistence of Frente Amplio that its pact with the socialists is limited to the Senate.
To explore that possibility, the simulation gathers the votes of PSOE and the space of Sumar in 24 provinces that elect between two and six deputies, excluding Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia, Navarra, and the Comunitat Valenciana. It also does not include Ceuta and Melilla. It is an analytical delimitation, not a list of territories where negotiations are accredited.
And a national candidacy? It could surpass PP without preventing its majority with Vox
If PSOE and Frente Amplio shared a candidacy throughout Spain and fully retained their support, they would total 33.2% of the vote: 1.6 points more than PP.
In that case, the joint candidacy would obtain 130 deputies, compared to the 128 popular ones. Vox would achieve 63 and Podemos would maintain two. The progressive coalition would be the first candidacy in votes and seats within the model, but PP and Vox would gather 191 representatives.
If Podemos also joined, the joint support would reach 36.3% and the list would obtain 138 deputies. PP would achieve 123 and Vox, 62: together they would retain 185.
The difference between being the first candidacy and having a parliamentary majority is decisive. Unity can improve the conversion of votes into deputies, but it does not eliminate the 14 points that separate the 50.3% of PP and Vox from the 36.3% of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
| Scenario | PP | Vox | PP + Vox | PSOE + FA + Podemos, own and common | ERC and others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without additional pact | 133 | 64 | 197 | 121 | 32 |
| Pact in the four provinces mentioned | 132 | 64 | 196 | 122 | 32 |
| Pact in 24 provinces: retention of 60% | 132 | 64 | 196 | 122 | 32 |
| Pact in 24 provinces: retention of 80% | 132 | 64 | 196 | 122 | 32 |
| Pact in 24 provinces: retention of 100% | 131 | 64 | 195 | 123 | 32 |
| National alliance PSOE–FA, without leaks | 128 | 63 | 191 | 132 | 27 |
| National alliance PSOE–FA–Podemos, without leaks | 123 | 62 | 185 | 138 | 27 |
All scenarios total 350 deputies. In the cases of partial retention, the vote of FA that does not accompany the joint candidacy is transferred to Podemos; that of PSOE is preserved. No probabilities are assigned to these scenarios.
With full retention of the vote, the result would be 131 deputies for PP and 64 for Vox: 195 in total, compared to the 197 of the initial scenario.
On the other side, the shared lists would achieve 35 representatives. PSOE would obtain another 78 where it ran separately; Frente Amplio, eight outside the agreement; and Podemos would maintain two. The sum of these spaces would go from 121 to 123 deputies.
The 35 representatives of the common candidacies cannot be exclusively attributed to PSOE or Frente Amplio: their belonging would depend on the order and composition of the lists.
The before and after: vote and deputies of each candidacy
If PSOE and Frente Amplio shared a candidacy throughout Spain and fully retained their support, they would total 33.2% of the vote: 1.6 points more than PP. In that case, the joint candidacy would obtain 130 deputies, compared to the 128 popular ones. Vox would achieve 63 and Podemos would maintain two. The progressive coalition would be the first candidacy in votes and seats within the model, but PP and Vox would gather 191 representatives.In this execution of the model, the two changes occur in Almería and Cáceres, where the sum of PSOE and Frente Amplio displaces one deputy from PP. It does not mean that they are the only competitive provinces: small variations in votes or a different territorial distribution can modify which seats change hands.
Six scenarios: from a limited pact to a national alliance
The exercise allows distinguishing the territorial scope of the agreement and the response of voters.
A pact limited to the four provinces expressly mentioned -Cantabria, Almería, Badajoz, and Toledo- would add one deputy to the PSOE–Frente Amplio total in this simulation. Extending it to the 24 selected provinces would raise the gain to two.
If only 80% of Frente Amplio voters in those provinces supported the joint list and the remaining 20% opted for Podemos, the gain would be reduced to one seat. With a retention of 60%, the result would still be one additional deputy. These percentages are sensitivity assumptions, not measurements of electoral behavior.
The last two scenarios expand the hypothesis much further: a national PSOE–Frente Amplio candidacy and another that also included Podemos. They do not describe the scope of the published conversations nor presume that those alliances are politically or legally viable at this moment.
Not all additional deputies would come from PP and Vox
The national expansion of the agreement leaves another relevant result: some of the seats that the common candidacy would gain would come from territorial parties.
In the scenario of a national PSOE–Frente Amplio alliance, their deputies would go from 119 separately to 130 together. The gain would be eleven, but PP and Vox would lose six. The other five would come from territorial formations.
Therefore, gaining representatives for a candidacy does not always equate to expanding a possible investiture majority by the same amount. If the lost deputy belongs to a party willing to support the same presidential candidate, it can change the balance between partners without changing the majority they sum.
The main unknown: how many voters would accompany the agreement
The full sum of support is a demanding hypothesis. Not all voters of Frente Amplio have to accept a shared candidacy with PSOE; nor can it be taken for granted that all socialist voters would support it.
Some might choose Podemos, abstain, or change options. The agreement could also mobilize new voters, but that effect needs specific data: it cannot be deduced from an average of polls that ask about separate candidacies.
In this exercise, alliances improve the distribution of seats for the left under the examined assumptions, but none eliminate the majority of PP and Vox. To do so would require a different territorial distribution, a change in support, or a combination of both factors.
How the simulation was conducted
The visible percentages of the Democrat average and the provincial votes published by the Central Electoral Board for the general elections of 2023 have been used. Each of the six spaces of the average retains its historical territorial distribution; Sumar and Podemos are distributed, for simplification, with the same geography of the Sumar vote from 2023.
For Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, Coalición Canaria, and UPN, the supports from 2023 are maintained. The remaining percentage is treated as dispersed vote without representation: new candidacies are not modeled individually nor changes in those forces. Current territorial agreements are also not incorporated. These are relevant limitations, especially for interpreting national totals.
The distribution is calculated by constituency using D'Hondt, with the legal threshold of 3% and the number of deputies from the 2026 call. In Ceuta and Melilla, the seat is attributed to the most voted candidacy. The reference calculation reproduces the distribution of 350 deputies from 2023 by introducing the votes and seats from that election.
Check the average of Democrat polls here and the tools of the electoral special of 29N