Flávio Bolsonaro, candidate of the Liberal Party (PL), would obtain 51.5% of the valid votes in the second round of the Brazilian presidential elections, against 48.5% of the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT), according to a survey by Alfa Inteligência published on October 20.
The estimate comes after a first round in which Flávio Bolsonaro was the most voted candidate, with 47.03% of the valid votes, against Lula's 45.16%. The second vote is scheduled for October 25.
Results of the first round
The first vote left the two candidates who will run in the final elections separated by 1.87 percentage points. Behind them were Augusto Cury, from Avante, with 2.89%; Renan Santos, from Missão, with 2.24%, and Ronaldo Caiado, from PSD, with 2.18%.
| Candidate | Party | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 47.03% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | PT | 45.16% |
| Augusto Cury | Avante | 2.89% |
| Renan Santos | Missão | 2.24% |
| Ronaldo Caiado | PSD | 2.18% |
Alfa places Flávio Bolsonaro three points ahead
In the second round scenario proposed by Alfa Inteligência, the PL candidate reaches 51.5% of the valid votes and Lula obtains 48.5%. This calculation excludes blank and null votes and undecided voters.
| Candidate | Party | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 51.5% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | PT | 48.5% |
In total voting intention, the study records 48.8% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 45.9% for Lula. The blank, null, or neither candidate vote reaches 3.5%, while 1.8% do not know or do not respond.
Technical sheet of the survey
Alfa Inteligência conducted 2,700 face-to-face interviews between October 15 and 19. The study has a margin of error of 1.9 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.