The militarization of the Ceuta border has become the measure with the greatest social support following the migration crisis opened in the autonomous city.
According to the Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo, 82.4% of Spaniards believe that Spain should militarize again the border, compared to 17.6% who reject that option. Support is practically unanimous among PP and Vox voters, but it also reaches a wide majority of the socialist electorate.
97.5% of those who voted for PP and 99.7% of Vox voters support that measure. Among PSOE voters, support reaches 72.5%. Sumar is the only large electorate where rejection predominates: 55.5% oppose, although 44.5% also support militarizing the border.
A transversal support for militarizing the border
The main data from the survey is the breadth of support for a tougher response at the southern border.
It is not just a position of the conservative electorate. The militarization is supported by more than eight out of ten Spaniards and by almost three out of four socialist voters.
The difference by sex is small: 81% of men and 83.7% of women support it. The measure, therefore, is not concentrated in a specific demographic profile, but rather crosses almost the entire political and social board.
The clearest exception is in Sumar. Among its voters, 44.5% support militarizing the border and 55.5% oppose it.
47.6% see pressure from Morocco as the main cause
The survey also asks about the main reason for the crisis that occurred in Ceuta.
The most pointed option is the pressure from Morocco, with 47.6% of the responses. This is followed by the regularization of migrants in Spain, with 18.4%, and the Government's immigration policy, with 16.5%.
Only 6.2% consider that human trafficking mafias are the main reason for the crisis.
This data is especially relevant pbecause it questions the explanation focused on the mafias and places Morocco as the most mentioned actor by the respondents.
PSOE and Sumar voters are those who most point to Morocco
The attribution of responsibility to Morocco is majority among socialist voters.
61.9% of those who voted for PSOE believe that the main cause of the crisis was the pressure from the Moroccan government. Among Sumar voters, that percentage rises to 75.7%.
On the right, the reading is more divided. Among PP voters, 35.1% point to Morocco, 27.4% blame the Government's migration policy, and 26.1% point to the regularization of migrants.
Among Vox voters, the most mentioned option is the regularization of migrants, with 33.8%. 28.9% blame the Government's migration policy and 28.2% point to Morocco.
The photograph is striking: the thesis of Moroccan pressure has more support among the PSOE and Sumar electorate than among PP and Vox.
Only 6.2% primarily blame the mafias
The data on the mafias is one of the most delicate from the survey.
Only 6.2% of those surveyed believe that human trafficking mafias were the main reason for the Ceuta crisis.
This percentage is low across all electorates: 3.6% among PP voters, 9.9% among socialists, 2.1% among Vox voters, and 3.5% among Sumar voters.
The survey does not deny the existence of networks or organized dynamics, but it shows that public opinion does not identify them as the main factor. In parallel, El País has published that the mass assault on Ceuta was described as an organized operation and not as a spontaneous movement, according to an analysis of the prior digital mobilization.
68.7% believe that warnings from intelligence services were ignored
Another politically impactful piece of data is the perception of prior warnings.
68.7% of those surveyed believe that the Government ignored warnings from intelligence services about what could happen in Ceuta. 31.3% do not believe so.
Here, a much clearer division appears by voting memory.
Among PP voters, 97.3% believe that warnings were ignored. Among Vox voters, the percentage reaches 99.6%.
In contrast, the majority of PSOE and Sumar voters do not share that idea. 61.5% of socialists and 74.1% of Sumar voters believe that those warnings were not ignored.
The Government's management, suspended
The survey also asks to evaluate the actions of different actors during the crisis.
The Ceuta society is the best rated, with a 7 out of 10. The Ceuta Government receives a 5.5 and also passes.
The Ministry of Defense receives a 3.6; the countries of the European Union, a 3.4; the European Union, another 3.4; the PP, a 3.3; the Government of Spain, a 3.1; Vox, a 3; and the Ministry of the Interior, a 2.8.
The Government of Morocco comes in last place, with a rating of 0.8.
The data reinforces the idea that the crisis is perceived as a shared failure, but with greater punishment towards Morocco, the Interior, and the central Executive.
64% rejects relocating unaccompanied minors to the Peninsula
The survey also addresses what to do with unaccompanied migrant minors who remain in Ceuta.
64% shows little or no agreement with relocating them to the Peninsula. 30.1% is totally or somewhat in agreement, and 5.8% does not know or does not answer.
The division by blocks is once again clear.
Among PP voters, the rejection reaches 83.4%. Among Vox voters, 92.8%. In Sumar, the opposite occurs: 65.6% is totally or somewhat in agreement with the relocation.
The socialist electorate appears practically split in two. 47.2% agrees with relocating minors to the Peninsula and 45.4% opposes it.
63.6% would apply the same rules to minors and adults
The survey also asks whether the same rules should be applied to unaccompanied minors as to adults in circumstances like the Ceuta crisis.
63.6% responds that yes. 36.4% answers that no.
Among PP voters, support for this idea reaches 79.2%. Among Vox voters, 88.7%. In the PSOE, 48.8% is in favor and 51.2% is against. In Sumar, the majority rejects equating minors and adults: 67.6% says that the same rules should not apply.
This point is one of the most sensitive in the survey, as it comes into tension with the specific legal framework for child protection.
59.5% would suspend free movement if it happened in another EU country
The survey also poses a European scenario: what Spain should do if a similar situation occurred in another EU country.
59.5% states that they would agree to suspend the free movement of people with that country. 40.5% opposes it.
Support is very high among PP voters, at 82.3%, and Vox voters, at 92.3%.
In the PSOE and Sumar, rejection predominates. 62.6% of socialist voters and 86.9% of Sumar voters oppose suspending free movement.
Ceuta and Melilla are not seen as threatened in the short term
Despite the concern over the crisis, the majority does not believe that Ceuta and Melilla will become part of Morocco.
62.9% considers that this will never happen. 14.4% believes it could happen in the next 10 years and 9.3% in the next five.
The confidence that Ceuta and Melilla will continue to be Spanish is majority in all major electorates: 59.6% among PP voters, 70.6% among PSOE voters, 56.6% among Vox voters, and 82.8% among Sumar voters.