The revenues of the defense industry will register an advance close to 15% annually until 2030, according to a report from Bank of America released this Monday after analyzing the results of the second quarter of 2026.
The bank notes that it expects an average ratio of order backlog to sales (business to business) with a rebound of 30% between 2026 and 2030, which will translate into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of revenues of around 15% in that interval.
In this context, the performance of the German Hensoldt, specialized in sensors for defense and security uses, stands out, which will increase by 66%, along with the Norwegian Kongsberg (+62%) and the Swedish Saab (+39%), driven by their presence in air defense, missiles, and radars.
The study also records an average improvement in the Ebit margin of 165 basis points between 2026 and 2030, with the German Renk, the French Thales, and Hensoldt at the high end of the range, while the English QinetiQ is at the low end.
In contrast to these forecasts, analysts from the American bank point out that the European defense sector has remained "volatile" in recent months, "reflecting concerns about the sustainability of defense spending and the uneven execution of programs."
In the German case, experts remind that "Germany has increased the planned spending on acquisitions in its latest budget project but with a clear shift in priorities towards the air and naval segments to the detriment of ammunition," which is reconfiguring the allocation of resources within the sector.