The German electoral night has another battle beyond who comes first. It is fought around 5%: the threshold that can separate a party with parliamentary representation from another that does not participate in the proportional distribution of seats. In Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, several formations appear so close to that limit that a few tenths could change the possibilities of forming a Government.
The estimates from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, published at the close of polling stations this Sunday, September 20, place BSW at 5% in Berlin. In Mecklenburg, the CDU appears at 5%; The Greens, at 5.5%; and BSW, at 4.8%. These are exit polls, not definitive results of the counting.
For those formations, the difference between staying slightly below or reaching the threshold can have much greater consequences than a small percentage variation. For the others, it can modify both their weight in the Chamber and the list of available allies.
Why 4.9% and 5% can produce very different results
In the proportional distribution, the candidacies that meet the electoral requirements are taken into account. When a formation is excluded, its votes are not transferred to another: they stop counting for that distribution.
This increases the relative weight of the parties that do participate. Therefore, a candidacy can obtain a percentage of seats higher than its percentage of the total valid votes.
A purely illustrative example helps to understand it. If out of every hundred votes ten correspond to excluded parties, the proportional distribution is carried out on the remaining ninety. A formation with thirty votes would have a third of that base, even though its support over the total was 30%. The actual calculation also incorporates the electoral method and direct mandates.
The rules are not identical in both territories. Berlin contemplates an exception to the threshold linked to obtaining a direct mandate. In Mecklenburg, the direct mandates won are retained even if the party does not reach the percentage required for the proportional distribution. That is why it is not always correct to equate "less than 5%" with "no deputy."
Mecklenburg: the future Government is also at stake among small parties
Attention is focused on the duel between AfD and the SPD of Manuela Schwesig. However, knowing the winner will not be enough to know who can govern.
The CDU, the Greens, and BSW appear around the threshold in the first polls. Whether all, some, or none enter would produce different parliaments, even if it barely changed the distance between the two main parties.
The entry of a party adds a possible interlocutor for negotiation, but it also reduces the relative weight of others in the distribution. Its exclusion eliminates that option for a pact and may increase the proportion of seats for parties that have not gained additional votes.
There is, therefore, no rule by which the entry of any small party automatically favors an alternative majority to AfD. It depends on which party it is, how many deputies it obtains, and with whom it is willing to negotiate.
Berlin: BSW can alter the distribution without becoming a partner
In the capital, BSW's situation adds another uncertainty to the dispute for the Government. Its presence or absence would influence the distribution of deputies among Die Linke, CDU, Greens, SPD, and AfD.
But entering Parliament does not equate to having a guaranteed role in the Executive. Die Linke's candidate, Elif Eralp, ruled out a coalition with BSW during the campaign, according to Die Welt. That position limits the conclusions that can be drawn from a simple sum of percentages.
The distinction is decisive: a party can change the majorities simply by obtaining seats, even if it ends up in the opposition and does not participate in any government agreement.
A 5% on screen still does not guarantee entry
The percentages from a poll are estimates subject to uncertainty. A 5% published at the close does not certify that the final result reaches the legal minimum.
It is also not enough to look at a rounded figure during the counting. Close to the threshold, the exact votes matter, those that are pending to be counted, and the applicable rules. A difference that disappears when rounding can separate two parliamentary outcomes.
That is why, while the top positions grab the headlines, it is also advisable to follow the candidacies situated around that border. The question is not only how much each one obtains, but how the Chamber changes if it manages to enter.
The first position will give the winner a political argument to claim the Government. The battle for the 5% may determine whether it finds a majority to achieve it.