Citi's stock market analysis area has placed Bankinter and CaixaBank as its preferred financial entities in the Spanish market for the imminent earnings season, which will kick off on July 22.
In a report released this week, the US firm points to Unicaja as the bank with the worst positioning for this accounting cycle, while showing caution regarding Santander's credit risk provisions and BBVA's cost evolution.
"We expect reassuring second-quarter results, with investors' focus on profitability guidance for 2026," Citi analysts have indicated. The entity maintains a buy recommendation on all Spanish banks, with the exception of Sabadell and Unicaja, for which it gives a neutral rating.
Citi calculates that Santander will achieve an underlying net profit of 3.7 billion, with commissions offsetting the increase in credit losses, especially in Argentina and Brazil. If the 500 million costs linked to the TSB integration are included, the profit would be reduced to 3.2 billion, a more cautious figure than the consensus, which, in Citi's opinion, does not fully incorporate TSB's restructuring expenses.
As for BBVA, the other major international bank headquartered in Spain, the investment bank forecasts a net profit 5% below the consensus, around 2.8 billion euros, due to more conservative projections on earnings from Turkey.
For the other four listed domestic banks, the report projects an average increase in net interest margin of 2.9% compared to the previous quarter. The advantage of the forecasts for Bankinter and CaixaBank over Sabadell and Unicaja is explained by their greater sensitivity to interest rate movements.
Thus, Citi anticipates that Bankinter will achieve a profit of around 300 million in the second quarter; CaixaBank, around 1.5 billion; Banco Sabadell, about 660 million; and Unicaja, slightly more than 180 million.
The earnings release calendar will begin with Banco Santander, which will present its figures on July 22. This will be followed by Bankinter (July 23), then Sabadell (July 24), CaixaBank (July 29), BBVA (July 30), and finally, Unicaja (July 31).