The shares of Intel plunge by nearly 29% this Friday on Wall Street, after the American semiconductor manufacturer presented revenue forecasts for the last quarter of the year considerably lower than those expected by analysts. The drop, which represents a loss of approximately 130 billion dollars in market capitalization, threatens to become the largest recorded by the company in a single session.
The punishment from investors comes despite the fact that Intel has managed to improve its results during the third quarter, driven by demand for processors for data centers and the growth of its chip manufacturing business. However, the company has warned of a deterioration in personal computer sales, greater investment needs and difficulties in generating cash over the coming fiscal years.
The magnitude of the setback exceeds, if it is maintained until the close, the 26% plunge recorded on August 2, 2024, when Intel announced losses related to its manufacturing division and a workforce reduction of 15,000 workers. The stock market reaction is also affecting other semiconductor manufacturers, including Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Micron Technology.
Intel expects to earn up to 2 billion less than expected
The main reason for the drop lies in the business forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026. Intel estimates that it will bill between 15 billion and 16 billion dollars, compared with the approximately 17 billion dollars anticipated by the analysts' consensus.
The difference reflects a slowdown more intense than expected in the personal computer market, one of the manufacturer's traditional businesses. Sales of these devices are feeling both the rising cost of the devices and the comparison with the previous fiscal year, when the end of Windows 10 support boosted the renewal of computers in numerous companies.
To this situation is added the impact of a fatal explosion recently recorded at an Intel plant in Israel, an incident unrelated to the war conflict that, according to the estimates collected in the financial information published this Friday, could reduce fourth-quarter revenue by some 300 million dollars due to production limitations.
Investors have also reacted negatively to the spending outlook. The company expects to considerably increase its capital expenditures during 2027 and has warned that it does not expect to generate positive cash flow that year, which prolongs the uncertainties over the group's financial recovery.
Third-quarter results are not enough to convince the market
The stock market decline contrasts with the figures published by Intel for the third quarter, which reflect an improvement in revenues and adjusted profits.
The company reported sales of 16.5 billion dollars, 21% more than a year earlier, in line with market forecasts. Adjusted earnings per share reached 0.52 dollars, above the 0.41 dollars expected by analysts.
However, the performance of its different business areas was uneven. The products division, which groups together processors intended for personal computers and data centers, brought in 15.4 billion dollars, slightly below the 15.5 billion expected.
Within this segment, sales of chips for personal computers reached 8.1 billion dollars, compared with the estimated 8.8 billion. The weakness was partially offset by the data center business, which exceeded 7.3 billion dollars in revenue, compared with the 6.6 billion expected.
The growth of this last activity is due, in part, to the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructures, which require central processors to manage server operations and complement the functioning of specialized accelerators.
Chip manufacturing grows 58% and attracts the interest of Google and Nvidia
One of the most favorable data points in the quarterly results comes from Intel Foundry, the division with which the company seeks to expand its activity as a semiconductor manufacturer for third parties and compete in a market dominated by large Asian producers.
This business recorded 6.7 billion dollars in revenue, 58% more year on year, exceeding the 6.1 billion expected by Wall Street. The advance represents backing for Intel's strategy to regain industrial capacity and attract new customers, although it will still have to demonstrate that it can turn activity growth into sustained profitability.
According to The Information, Google has commissioned Intel to manufacture three million customized tensor processing units (TPUs), used in artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia would also be negotiating possible production deals with the company.
On the other hand, Reuters has reported talks between Intel and the South Korean manufacturer SK Hynix about a transaction that could include the rental of industrial space at the plant that the U.S. technology company is developing in Ohio.
These projects show the opportunities offered by the growing demand for advanced semiconductors, but they also explain the high investments that Intel will have to assume to expand its facilities and improve its manufacturing processes.
The collapse puts to the test the recovery driven by Trump, Nvidia and SoftBank
Friday’s session represents an important setback for the stock market recovery that Intel had been leading during 2026. Before presenting its forecasts, its shares had accumulated an annual rise of more than 140%, driven by the restructuring of the business and the investments received during the previous year.
In the summer of 2025, the Donald Trump Administration, Nvidia and SoftBank participated in operations aimed at strengthening the financial position of the technology company. The U.S. Government committed an investment close to 9 billion dollars in exchange for approximately 10% of the capital, while Nvidia contributed another 5 billion.
The operation also responded to Washington’s strategic interest in regaining advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity on U.S. territory, a sector considered fundamental to the technology industry, artificial intelligence and economic security.
Intel’s setback has also affected SoftBank, whose shares have fallen by nearly 6% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, amid growing concern about valuations and the amount of investment committed in companies related to artificial intelligence.
Although Intel continues to be a relevant piece of the American industrial strategy, the forecasts known this Friday show the gap between the expectations of recovery and the financial results that the market demands from the company. The evolution of computer sales, the profitability of its new factories and its ability to finance the planned investments will be decisive in assessing the scope of its transformation.