The legislative elections held on Tuesday in Israel have left a Parliament without a clear majority to form a government, after Benjamin Netanyahu managed to keep Likud as the leading political force, but lost the majority that allowed him to govern with his current allies.
Nor does the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot have enough members to replace him, so negotiations will force the parties to reconsider some of the conditions they had imposed during the campaign, especially regarding the participation of the Arab parties and the continuity of the current prime minister.
With the count still pending completion, the provisional tally attributes 53 seats to Netanyahu's bloc, 48 to the opposition and 19 to the two Arab candidacies, which could prove decisive for the formation of the next government. The Knesset has 120 members and neither of the two major blocs reaches the 61 that make up an absolute majority, although the different parliamentary combinations would allow that figure to be surpassed if the leaders agreed to negotiate with parties they had so far ruled out as partners.
Eisenkot would have to rely on the support of the Arab parties to gather an alternative majority, while Netanyahu would need to bring in members outside his coalition to continue governing. Between both possibilities also appears the option of a grand coalition, in which Likud would share the government with some of its main adversaries, a formula that would avoid depending on the Arab parties, but that would clash with the electoral commitments of much of the opposition.
An opposition that needs the Arab parties to govern
The 48 opposition members and the 19 Arab candidacies would add up to 67 seats, six above the absolute majority, although reaching that figure would require an agreement between formations with very different positions on security, the war in Gaza and the relationship with the Palestinians. Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli Army and leader of Yashar, had rejected during the campaign relying on the Arab parties to govern, a position also defended by Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu.
The difficulties in reaching an understanding are not limited to the differences between the Jewish and Arab parties, since within the opposition itself nationalist right-wing leaders, centrists and representatives of the left coexist, who agree in their rejection of Netanyahu, but differ on the policies that his replacement should develop. The possibility of incorporating the Arab formations into the Government would force negotiations on especially delicate issues, such as the settlements in the West Bank, the situation in Gaza or security measures.
The two Arab candidacies also maintain differences between them, especially due to their respective experiences and positions regarding participation in Israeli governments. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, was already part of the coalition headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021, while the Joint List has traditionally maintained a more critical stance toward joining executives led by Zionist parties.
Eisenkot could try to avoid some of these difficulties through a parliamentary support agreement that would allow the Arab parties to facilitate the formation of the Government without holding ministries, although he would still need their votes to approve the main legislative initiatives. The formula would not be unprecedented in Israeli politics, but it would not resolve the objections of opposition leaders who have rejected any dependence on these formations either.
A grand coalition with the Likud to avoid dependence on the Arab parties
The second possibility would consist of the Likud negotiating with some of the parties that have contested the elections defending Netanyahu's departure, so that a majority could be formed without resorting to the Arab formations or necessarily keeping all the ultranationalist and religious partners of the current Government.
With the provisional allocation of seats, an alliance between the Likud, Yashar, Juntos and Yisrael Beiteinu would bring together 66 deputies, a sufficient majority to govern that, however, would force the opposition leaders to accept an agreement with the prime minister whom they had promised to replace. Netanyahu would also have to give up some of his current allies, among them the formations headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, which have played a very relevant role in his last coalition.
The main disagreement would be over the head of the Executive, since Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman have defended during the campaign the need to end the Netanyahu era, while the Likud leader claims his continuity after having managed to make his party once again the most voted. One possible solution would be to agree on a rotating presidency, like the one Bennett and Lapid agreed on in 2021, or even the election of another Likud leader.
Added to the personal differences would be the negotiations over the military service of ultra-Orthodox Jews, security policy and relations with the Palestinians, issues that have divided the potential partners in recent years. Although in Israel there are precedents of unity governments between opposing parties, many ended up breaking apart because of the difficulty of reconciling their respective programs.
Netanyahu can remain in office while he negotiates new support
Although his coalition has lost the absolute majority, Netanyahu will remain at the head of the acting Government until a new Executive is formed, which will allow him to negotiate directly with the formations that could facilitate his continuity. The Likud has won 26 deputies, according to the provisional results, while its religious and ultranationalist allies make up a bloc of 53, eight fewer than needed to reach the parliamentary majority.
The prime minister could try to convince parties or deputies who have defended a change of Government to recover the lost support, a negotiation especially complicated by the rejection his continuity arouses among much of the opposition.
Among Netanyahu's possible interlocutors are the parties of Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman, although the three leaders have made their exit from the Government one of their main electoral promises. Any negotiation with them would force the prime minister to discuss not only the distribution of ministries, but also the continuity of his current ultra-Orthodox and ultranationalist partners, whose presence in the Executive is one of the main reasons for confrontation with the opposition.
The lack of agreement could lead to other elections
Once the definitive results are proclaimed, the president of Israel, Isaac Herzog, will open a round of consultations with the representatives of the different factions to decide whom he entrusts with forming the Government. The candidate does not have to be the leader of the most-voted party, since the president will have to assess who has the greatest chances of gathering a parliamentary majority, taking into account the recommendations he receives during the talks.
The designated lawmaker will initially have 28 days to negotiate an Executive, a period that may be extended by up to 14 additional days if Herzog considers that there are chances of reaching an agreement. If the attempt fails, he may entrust the formation of the Government to another parliamentarian and, if that second opportunity also fails, the Knéset itself will have a final period to propose a candidate.
Israel already went through a similar situation between 2019 and 2022, when it held five general elections in less than four years due to the inability to form stable coalitions. The differences between the parties, especially over the continuity of Netanyahu, then prevented durable agreements from being reached and triggered successive electoral calls.
The election result once again leaves Netanyahu and his adversaries facing difficult negotiations, with the Arab parties turned into possible allies for an alternative majority and the grand coalition as another of the formulas that would make it possible to avoid a repeat election. The formation of the next Government will depend on one of the leaders agreeing to modify the conditions he defended during the campaign, since none of the traditional alliances has enough deputies to govern on its own.