52% of the experts, business owners, and executives consulted by PwC consider that the rise in prices in Spain marks the beginning of a stage of structurally higher inflation, prolonged over time and that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have difficulty resolving, according to the Economic and Business Consensus of the fourth quarter of 2026.
The document, based on 91 responses gathered between October 4 and 24, also indicates that 52% of those surveyed foresee for 2027 persistent inflation and high interest rates over a longer period, in the face of the risk of a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
Faced with this diagnosis of structurally higher inflation, 25% interpret the current rise as a transitory phenomenon linked to the energy impact of the situation in the Near East, while 15% see it as a controllable risk as long as the ECB acts with determination.
Regarding the factors that will put the most pressure on prices in the coming months, 63% point to a combination of energy, food, and services, a cocktail that, in the panelists' view, could cause inflation to remain elevated and difficult to channel.
The ECB and the upcoming rate hikes
Monetary policy takes up much of the attention of the participants in the consensus. 76% believe that the increase in the ECB deposit facility to 2.5% last September was a "right and necessary" decision to anchor inflation expectations, although some consider it late.
Conversely, 15% believe that this increase will be harmful because it drags on growth without correcting the supply disturbance caused by the conflict in Iran. Looking toward the end of the year, 86% lean toward new rate hikes, conditioned by the evolution of inflation.
The report places inflation in Spain at 5%, compared with 3.8% in the eurozone. For 47% of the experts, this gap is explained by the greater dynamism of domestic demand and tourism, which are pushing prices upward.
Impact on wages, consumption and savings
Those surveyed also warn of the implications of prolonged inflation on household finances. 45% consider that, if prices rise above nominal wages over an extended period, the effect will be uneven depending on income level, while 39% anticipate a loss of purchasing power that could force adjustments in consumption and savings.
Focusing on the evolution of salaries, 39% expect pay to grow below prices. Another 31% believe that wage increases will generate second-round effects on costs and prices, especially in some sectors, and 27% foresee a uneven impact depending on workers' bargaining power, productivity and collective agreements.
These concerns are carried over to consumption forecasts. The percentage of participants who predict a drop in household spending rises from 24% to 42% compared with the previous consensus, while those who believe it will remain stable fall from 65% to 53%. In addition, 67% rate the situation of families in terms of savings, income and debt as average, and the majority do not expect an improvement in the next quarter.
Moderate slowdown and labor shortage
In this scenario, the consensus points to a moderate slowdown in the Spanish economy, with growth of 2.4% in 2026 and close to 2% in 2027. 41% identify the lack of workers as one of the main obstacles to increasing activity, despite the fact that demand and installed capacity would allow more to be produced.
The perception of the situation of companies is also cooling. 60% of those surveyed rate the current situation of their companies as good, compared with 72% who did so at the beginning of the year, while 76% expect it to remain unchanged in the next quarter.
The study concludes that Spain is facing a progressive moderation of growth, with no signs supporting an alarmist diagnosis, although conditioned by the evolution of inflation, financing costs, consumer behavior and the geopolitical context.
Pwc has been preparing this quarterly indicator since 1999 based on a panel of about 450 experts, businesspeople and executives. In this edition, the conclusions are drawn exclusively from the 91 responses received during the consultation period.