The majority of attendees at the September meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States considered that a new increase in interest rates would be "appropriate" looking towards the end of this year, which leaves open the possibility of a new restrictive turn in monetary policy before the end of 2026.
However, Fed officials nuanced this position by emphasizing that they will approach each meeting with an "open mindset" and that future decisions will depend on the data they become aware of and how this influences economic forecasts and risk assessment.
In September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, placing the target range between 3.75% and 4%, in what was the first tightening measure of monetary policy since July 2023.
"In general, participants highlighted that inflation remained elevated, while the labor market seemed to be close to full employment, with some signs of strengthening, and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace (...). Based on the outlook and the changing balance of risks, all participants deemed a higher target range for the federal funds rate appropriate," the minutes of the meeting state.
A week ago, the U.S. Administration revised GDP upward, with an acceleration of 0.7% in the second quarter of 2026, so the U.S. economy advanced at an annualized rate of 2.2%, above the 1.5% calculated in the previous revision. Additionally, the Government also updated the data for the first quarter, raising growth from 2.1% to the 2.5% estimated in September, four-tenths higher.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the indicator preferred by the Fed to assess inflation, stood at 3.4%, while the core rate remained at 3%.