Lula da Silva prevails over Flávio Bolsonaro among the Brazilians who voted in Portugal in the presidential runoff this Sunday, October 25. The president receives 34,319 votes, 59.42%, compared to 23,433 for his opponent, equivalent to 40.58%. The figures match the information published by Diário de Notícias Brasil, Metrópoles, and Brasil 247.
The result offers two readings: Lula maintains a wide majority, while bolsonarism improves its percentage compared to the runoff of 2022. Then, Jair Bolsonaro achieved 36% in Portugal, against 64% for Lula. The rise of his son is, therefore, 4.58 percentage points.
The difference between the two candidates now stands at 18.84 points, compared to 28 four years ago. Flávio's advance reduces the gap, although it does not change the winner among Brazilian voters in Portugal.
Results of the elections in Brazil in Portugal
According to Diário de Notícias Brasil, which attributes the data to the monitoring of the counting carried out by the core of the Workers' Party in Portugal, the balance corresponds to the total of the ballots in the country. Lula has been the most voted in Lisbon and Porto, while Flávio Bolsonaro has won in Faro.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva | 34,319 | 59.42% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 23,433 | 40.58% |
| Total votes for both candidates | 57,752 | 100% |
Source: results published by Diário de Notícias Brasil, Metrópoles, and Brasil 247. Percentages based on valid votes. This balance corresponds to Portugal, not to the total overseas vote.
Flávio improves Jair Bolsonaro's percentage, but Lula maintains the majority
The comparison between both elections requires distinguishing the candidates: in 2022, Jair Bolsonaro ran; in 2026, his son Flávio. What can be compared is the electoral support obtained by both against Lula, without assuming that they are exactly the same voters.
In the runoff of 2022, Lula received 23,256 votes in Portugal and Jair Bolsonaro, 13,081. The current results show an increase in the votes for both spaces: Lula adds 11,063 more votes and Flávio obtains 10,352 more than those obtained by his father. These are calculations based on the balances published from both elections.
This explains a relevant difference between percentages and absolute votes. Lula lowers his support share, but obtains more ballots than in 2022. Bolsonarism also increases its votes and does so at a proportionally greater rate, which allows it to get closer in percentage.
It cannot be deduced from that evolution that all the additional supports come from transfers between candidates. Between two elections, the census, participation, and composition of the electorate can change.
What Portugal means for the result of Brazil
The Portuguese balance provides an advantage of 10,886 votes to Lula within the national total.
Brazil does not use an electoral college in which winning a country abroad grants a separate block of representatives. Votes cast outside Brazilian territory are incorporated into the presidential count: what matters is how many votes each candidate receives, not how many countries they win.
Lula retains Portugal, but Flávio Bolsonaro reduces the distance that separated his father from the leader of the Workers' Party in 2022. The national winner will depend on the total of the votes.