The first results of the external vote from Brazil leave two different pictures: Lula da Silva appears ahead in more countries and territories, but Flávio Bolsonaro accumulates more votes. In the partial count of 22 locations compiled by Congresso em Foco, the candidate of the Liberal Party totals 34,056 votes, compared to the 16,585 of the president. They are 67.25% and 32.75%, respectively, of the 50,641 valid votes included in that balance.
Flávio's lead is 17,471 votes. Lula tops the results in 13 locations and his opponent in nine. In two of them, India and Turkey, the data remains partial. The cutoff used corresponds to 12:07 in Brasília on Sunday, October 25, 16:07 in mainland Spain. These figures do not yet represent the complete result of the external vote nor the national count.
The main explanation lies in Japan. There, Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 28,538 votes, compared to Lula's 7,098. That difference weighs much more in the total than several victories of the president in small communities. In Australia, the opposite happens: Lula gets 6,017 votes and Flávio, 3,465.
Who is winning the external vote from Brazil so far
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the total of the bulletins included in this balance. To know who ultimately wins among Brazilians residing abroad, the pending results will need to be incorporated.
| Candidate | Votes counted | Percentage in this balance |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 34,056 | 67.25% |
| Lula da Silva | 16,585 | 32.75% |
| Total included | 50,641 | 100% |
Cutoff: October 25, 2026, 12:07 in Brasília; 16:07 in mainland Spain. Balance from 22 countries and territories, with partial counts in India and Turkey. Does not represent all external votes nor the national result. Source: compilation of bulletins published by Congresso em Foco. Percentages calculated on the votes included.
Results by countries: where Lula wins and where Flávio Bolsonaro wins
Lula stands out in New Zealand, mainland China, and several countries in the Middle East. Flávio prevails in Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, among other places. Hong Kong appears separated from mainland China to show its specific result without duplicating its votes.
The table collects the available results and recalculates all percentages based on the total votes of the two candidates. In India and Turkey, it is expressly indicated that only one of the two ballot boxes from the country has been counted.
| Country or territory | Lula: votes and percentage | Flávio: votes and percentage | Most voted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 49 · 61.25% | 31 · 38.75% | Lula |
| Australia | 6,017 · 63.46% | 3,465 · 36.54% | Lula |
| Qatar | 159 · 44.92% | 195 · 55.08% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Mainland China | 375 · 73.67% | 134 · 26.33% | Lula |
| South Korea | 148 · 64.35% | 82 · 35.65% | Lula |
| Egypt | 60 · 78.95% | 16 · 21.05% | Lula |
| United Arab Emirates | 643 · 45.44% | 772 · 54.56% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Philippines | 27 · 40.91% | 39 · 59.09% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Hong Kong | 127 · 48.85% | 133 · 51.15% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| India · partial: 1 of 2 ballot boxes | 25 · 52.08% | 23 · 47.92% | Lula, provisionally |
| Indonesia | 15 · 39.47% | 23 · 60.53% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Japan | 7,098 · 19.92% | 28,538 · 80.08% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Jordan | 725 · 90.51% | 76 · 9.49% | Lula |
| Kenya | 29 · 64.44% | 16 · 35.56% | Lula |
| Kuwait | 62 · 78.48% | 17 · 21.52% | Lula |
| Malaysia | 41 · 48.24% | 44 · 51.76% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| New Zealand | 418 · 80.54% | 101 · 19.46% | Lula |
| Singapore | 213 · 63.77% | 121 · 36.23% | Lula |
| Syria | 106 · 90.60% | 11 · 9.40% | Lula |
| Thailand | 56 · 48.28% | 60 · 51.72% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Taiwan | 94 · 41.96% | 130 · 58.04% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Turkey · partial: 1 of 2 ballot boxes | 98 · 77.17% | 29 · 22.83% | Lula, provisionally |
| Sum of included data | 16,585 · 32.75% | 34,056 · 67.25% | Flávio Bolsonaro |
Cut-off of the balance: 10/25/2026, 12:07 from Brasília; 16:07 peninsular. Percentages on valid votes, excluding blank and null. Hong Kong is presented separately from mainland China and is counted only once. India and Turkey have incomplete counts. Sources: compilations of bulletins from Congresso em Foco, Exame, TMC, and Itatiaia. This is not the official totalization of all overseas votes.
Why Japan completely changes the reading of the result
Japan represents approximately 70.4% of all valid votes collected in this table. Therefore, the provisional distribution largely reflects what happened among Brazilians who voted there.
The calculation allows us to see it clearly: Japan gives Flávio a lead of 21,440 votes. In the rest of the included locations, summed together, Lula gathers 9,487 votes and Flávio, 5,518. That is, the president obtains a lead of 3,969 votes outside of Japan that does not compensate for his rival's margin in that country. These are calculations based on the records of the table, not an electoral projection.
This explains why a map with more victories for Lula can coexist with a wide advantage for Flávio in votes. Each country has a different electorate and does not award an additional prize for coming in first. What matters is how many votes each candidate contributes to the total.
Syria, Kuwait, and Qatar: large percentages and small differences in votes
The result from Syria illustrates the difference between a percentage victory and its contribution to the balance. Lula achieves 90.60% there, but that percentage corresponds to 106 votes against 11: an advantage of 95 votes. In Kuwait, he wins by 62 to 17 and in Saudi Arabia, by 49 to 31.
Flávio wins in Qatar by 195 to 159 and in the United Arab Emirates by 772 to 643. Adding those five countries, he is ahead by only seven votes: 1,026 to 1,019. Lula wins in three of them and his opponent in two, but the total slightly favors the latter.
Jordan provides another favorable result for Lula, with 725 votes against 76. He also leads the records in Egypt and Kenya. These victories expand his presence on the map, although his contribution should be measured by the margin in votes and not just by the percentage achieved.
Which countries are missing: the United States, Portugal, and the European vote
In the cut used, the results from large communities of voters have not yet been incorporated, including the United States, Portugal, Spain, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Their absence prevents presenting this balance as the result of all Brazilians voting abroad.
The first round shows why those territories matter. In the United States, Flávio obtained 45,004 votes and Lula, 23,335. In Portugal, Lula achieved 26,401 against 19,412 of his rival. Germany also favored the president, with 13,525 votes against 3,532. These are precedents from October 4, not results from the second round.
When those data come in, both the difference and the percentages of the external balance may change. A candidate can lose advantage in the total without worsening in any of the already accounted countries: it is enough for communities where his opponent has more support to be incorporated.
Does the foreign vote anticipate who will win in Brazil?
Votes from abroad count to elect the president, but they do not constitute a representative sample of the whole of Brazil. Furthermore, the first results arrive ordered by time zones and the availability of bulletins, not through a statistical selection.
The TSE estimates 918,876 Brazilians eligible to vote outside the country, just over 0.5% of the national census. They are distributed across 186 cities and participate in the election of president and vice president. That percentage corresponds to registered individuals, not to the final proportion of votes cast, which will depend on participation.
There is an immediate precedent that helps interpret the difference: in the first round, Lula won the overseas sum with 157,387 votes, compared to Flávio's 143,900. However, the PL candidate ended up ahead in the national result. Winning among residents abroad does not equate to winning the entire election.
Where to check the official results of the elections in Brazil
The ballot boxes allow for local results to be known after the closing of each section. The presidential totalization from the TSE will begin to be disseminated starting at 17:00 Brasília time, 21:00 in mainland Spain, and 20:00 in the Canary Islands.
The official follow-up will be available on the results portal of the Brazilian Electoral Justice. Until that count progresses, the reading of the external data must retain three references: what places the sum includes, how many votes it gathers, and what territories remain pending.