Espejo Público (Antena 3) adopts the 29N election simulator of DEMÓCRATA: this is how you can make your own forecast

According to Spanish electoral legislation, electoral polls and simulators can be freely published before the call and also during almost the entire campaign, but the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG) establishes a “poll blackout” in the last days. Article 69 sets that, from the day of the call until the day of the vote, a specific regime applies to polls, and its section 7 prohibits the dissemination of electoral surveys in the five days prior to the voting day. In practice, this includes not only raw polls but also vote estimates, seat projections, or simulators based on them. The prohibition extends until the closing of the polling stations on the voting day itself, according to the repeated interpretation of the Central Electoral Board.

Basic legal framework

The general regime is set out in Section VIII. Electoral polls of the LOREG, especially in article 69, as stated in the law itself (LOREG in the BOE). The key provision for your question is section 7:

«During the five days prior to the voting day, the publication, dissemination, or reproduction of electoral polls by any means of communication is prohibited.» (art. 69.7 LOREG, current wording after the reform by Organic Law 2/2011).

Moreover, article 69 clarifies that its regime applies “between the day of the call and the day of the holding of any type of elections.” That is, all specific regulation on electoral polls only operates once the elections are called; before the call, the general regime of freedom of information applies, without special LOREG limits in this matter.

Phases of the process and what can be published

1. Before the official call

In the prior phase (political pre-campaign without formal call), article 69 LOREG does not yet operate. Polls, projections, “cooking” (adjustments) and seat distribution simulators can be published without specific restrictions from the electoral law, beyond general regulations (personal data, advertising, etc.).

2. From the call until five days before the vote

From the day the royal decree of the call is published until five days remain before the voting day, the LOREG allows publishing polls, but under technical and transparency conditions set out in article 69 itself:

• Identify who conducts and who commissions the poll.
• Include the main technical characteristics (sampling system, sample size, margin of error, field dates, etc.).
• Include the full text of the questions and the number of non-responses.

During this period, vote estimates, poll “cooking,” or electoral simulators (for example, tools that convert vote percentages into seats using the D’Hondt method, as explained in Vinces’ internal technical document on seat distribution, illustrating the use of LOREG in Congress) can be disseminated without problem. What is legally relevant is not the format (graphic, web simulator, article) but the fact that it is an electoral poll or derivatives.

3. The five days prior to voting day

This is the so-called poll blackout. During these five days:

• It is prohibited to publish, disseminate, or reproduce electoral polls “by any means of communication” (art. 69.7).
• The Central Electoral Board has traditionally understood that this prohibition also extends to:
  • Vote estimates derived from polls.
  • Seat distribution projections.
  • Simulators that, in reality, are showing the public results of recent polls.

In case of simultaneous multiple electoral processes, the Central Electoral Board has clarified this interpretation in Instruction 3/2019, reiterating that the prohibition applies to all affected processes. There is also specific doctrine on polls conducted by public bodies during the campaign (for example, Instruction 1/2024), which requires sharing results with political forces but does not authorize public dissemination during the prohibited period.

4. Reflection day and voting day

The prohibition on publishing polls is understood to extend until the closing of polling stations on voting day. The LOREG speaks of “five days prior to the voting day” and the Electoral Board has unified criteria to also consider incompatible with the spirit of the rule the dissemination of new polls during the electoral day while voters are still voting.

Violation of this regulation may lead to specific administrative sanctions regarding polls (art. 153.2 LOREG) and, in the most serious cases, criminal liability (art. 145 LOREG), according to the law published in the BOE (text of the LOREG and subsequent reforms such as Organic Law 16/2003).

Normative and contextual references

Besides the consolidated text of the LOREG (general electoral law), the poll regime has been affected by reforms and related documents, among others:

• LOREG reforms through Organic Law 2/2011 and Organic Law 16/2003.
• Main developments and documents from the recent LOREG reform process: proposals in Congress and Senate (BOCG 15-B-87-1, BOCG 15-B-87-2, BOCG 15-B-239-1, BOCG 15-B-239-2, BOCG 15-A-63-1, BOCG Senate 430, BOCG 15-B-329-1, 15-B-329-2, 15-B-329-3, 15-B-329-4, 15-B-329-5, 15-B-329-6, BOCG D-428, BOCG D-426).
• Government texts and backgrounds: Council of Ministers agreement on the LOREG reform draft (Council of Ministers reference), public hearing of the Ministry of the Interior and its impact report (public hearing, MAIN LOREG), and planning in the Annual Regulatory Plan 2025.
• Some of the latest laws affecting the electoral calendar and organization, such as Organic Law 2/2026 or logistical call agreements reflected in the BOE (BOE-A-2026-20742).
• Other recent initiatives related to LOREG and ineligibilities, which contextualize the evolution of the electoral regime (BOCG 15-B-123-1, 15-B-123-2).

The Congress of Deputies is the key chamber of the Cortes Generales and concentrates the main political functions of the State within the Spanish parliamentary system. Its basic competencies are mainly set out in articles 66 to 92 of the Spanish Constitution (CE), and can be grouped into several major blocks: legislative, government oversight, budgetary, investiture, and other specific constitutional functions.

1. Legislative function

The Cortes Generales exercise the legislative power of the State, but the Congress holds a predominant position over the Senate. Among its competencies are:

• Approving ordinary and organic laws: the Congress debates, amends, and votes on bills and legislative proposals. All state laws must be approved by it, although the Senate also intervenes.
• Prevalence over the Senate: if the Senate vetoes or amends a bill, the Congress can override the veto by absolute majority in a first vote or by simple majority after two months, and can also accept or reject Senate amendments.
• Constitutional reform: participates in the procedures for reforming the Constitution (ordinary and aggravated), with qualified majorities and, if applicable, dissolution and referendum, according to articles 167 and 168 CE.
• Legislative delegation: authorizes the Government to issue norms with the force of law (legislative decrees) through framework laws or ordinary delegation laws.

2. Confidence relationship with the Government

The system is parliamentary: the Government politically emanates from the Congress and is accountable to it. This is embodied in several fundamental competencies:

• Investiture of the President of the Government: the Congress elects the president through one or more investiture votes, proposed by the King and after consultations with group representatives (art. 99 CE). Without the confidence of the Congress, there is no Government.
• Vote of confidence: the President of the Government can submit a vote of confidence to the Congress on his program or a general policy declaration. If lost by simple majority, he must resign (art. 112 CE).
• Motion of censure: only the Congress can demand political responsibility from the Government through a motion of censure, which is also constructive: it must propose an alternative candidate for the presidency (art. 113 CE). If approved by absolute majority, the Government falls and the candidate is invested.

3. Oversight and political impetus function

Beyond those confidence mechanisms, the Congress ordinarily controls the Government’s actions:

• Questions and interpellations to the Government and its members, both in Plenary and in committees, to demand explanations about their management.
• Investigative committees on matters of public interest, with the power to require appearances and documentation, within constitutional limits.
• Non-legislative motions and resolutions that guide and promote the Executive’s political action, although they are not legally binding.

4. Budgetary and financial function

The Congress is also the central body regarding public resources and expenditure:

• Approval of the General State Budgets: the Cortes approve the budgets each year, but the Congress has the final say over the Senate, which can only propose vetoes or amendments.
• Authorization of indebtedness and certain taxes, in cases where the Constitution or laws require it, within the general framework of the State’s taxing power.

5. Other relevant constitutional competencies

Additionally, the Constitution assigns the Congress a series of singular functions:

• Authorization of states of alarm, exception, and siege, and control of measures adopted under those regimes (art. 116 CE). In the case of the state of siege, the initiative corresponds exclusively to the Government, but it must be declared by the Congress.
• Participation in the appointment of constitutional bodies, as part of the Cortes Generales (for example, election of Constitutional Court magistrates or members of other independent bodies, as established by the Constitution and organic laws).
• Control of royal decree-laws: the Government can issue them in cases of extraordinary and urgent need, but they must be validated or repealed by the Congress within a short period; it can also agree to their processing as a bill (art. 86 CE).
• Participation in foreign policy, through authorization of certain international treaties, votes on military missions abroad, and other acts that the Constitution or laws submit to the Cortes.

Overall, these competencies make the Congress of Deputies the center of gravity of national political life: it grants and withdraws confidence to the Government, approves fundamental laws, decides on the State budgets, and channels the main political debate in direct representation of the citizenry.

In Spain, a media outlet can disseminate affinity tests, simulators, and electoral calculators, but the obligations depend on their actual functioning: editorial information, electoral poll, or political advertising. It also matters if personal data is collected and whether the medium is public, radio, television, or digital press. Good transparency practice should not be confused with a legal obligation applicable to any tool.

1. Determine if it constitutes a poll

A test that compares individual answers with political programs does not automatically equate to an electoral poll. However, if it publishes aggregated percentages of preferences, vote estimates, or electorate trends, its submission to article 69 of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG) must be examined. Adding "this is not a scientific poll" does not by itself resolve this issue.

A simulator based on hypotheses introduced by the reader must clearly distinguish those scenarios from a prediction. Explaining sources, questions, weightings, and calculation rules is a recommended measure to avoid misleading presentations, not a uniform electoral requirement for every interactive product.

2. Comply with poll rules

When it is an electoral poll disseminated during the electoral period, it must be accompanied by the information required by article 69: identification of those who commission and conduct it, technical characteristics, sampling system and size, selection of interviewees, margin of error, dates, full questions, and people who did not answer each one. The Central Electoral Board can request documentation and demand corrections, as explained by Demócrata on polls.

It is prohibited to publish, disseminate, or reproduce electoral polls during the five days prior to voting, also in digital media. This does not automatically imply shutting down any calculator: dissemination that constitutes a prohibited poll must be withdrawn or blocked, differentiating it from individual results or hypothetical scenarios. See the explanation of electoral restrictions.

3. Protect political opinions

Answers linked to a person may reveal political opinions, especially protected by article 9 of the GDPR. The medium must have a legal basis and a valid exception to process this category; when relying on explicit consent, it must be obtained specifically and informed.

• Inform about the data controller, purposes, retention, recipients, rights, and profiling.
• Separate participation from permission for advertising, newsletters, or transfers.
• Minimize data, apply security, and regulate providers and international transfers.
• Conduct an impact assessment when processing involves high risk, especially with large-scale political data.

Anonymity should not be promised if answers can be linked to accounts, cookies, or identifiers. Pseudonymization does not remove GDPR applicability.

4. Separate editorial content and political advertising

If there is sponsorship or political promotion, Regulation (EU) 2024/900 must be analyzed: ad identification, sponsor, transparency notices, and segmentation restrictions. Consent to respond to the test does not automatically authorize using political opinions to personalize ads. Moreover, electoral propaganda is subject to LOREG’s temporal restrictions.

5. Apply the medium’s regime

Public media have obligations of pluralism, equality, proportionality, and neutrality. Private radios and televisions have specific electoral obligations; these should not be indiscriminately applied to all digital press.

Before launch, it is advisable to document the legal classification, separate individual and collective results, review privacy and sponsorship, and establish publication controls. The review must attend to the specific product: it is not enough to call it an "informative tool."