La Moncloa handles data that reflects a leak of between 10% and 12% of PSOE voters in the general elections of 2023 towards the Partido Popular and Vox, according to information published this Sunday, October 25, by La Razón. The transfer of support towards the formations led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal represents one of the main electoral problems for Pedro Sánchez, who faces the elections on November 29 with the aim of retaining the Government. Although the socialists would be partially compensating for those losses thanks to the capture of former voters of Sumar, the demographic estimates continue to show an advantage for the right-wing bloc.
The information, signed by Carmen Morodo in La Razón, indicates that the recovery of part of the progressive electorate would not be sufficient to neutralize the support that the PSOE loses towards its main adversaries. The data is particularly relevant because it is not only a demobilization of former socialist voters, but a direct displacement towards the candidacies of PP and Vox, which reinforces the opposing bloc. However, the newspaper does not publish the original internal study nor its technical sheet, so it is not possible to independently verify the sample size, the dates of the fieldwork, or the margin of error of that estimate.
Between 10% and 12% of those who voted for PSOE in 2023 would now lean towards PP or Vox
The main conclusion of the data attributed to Moncloa is that between one in ten and slightly more than one in ten former socialist voters would now opt for a ballot from PP or Vox. The figure reflects an electoral movement that can have relevant consequences in the distribution of seats, especially in those provinces where small differences in votes determine the allocation of the last deputy.
In the general elections of July 23, 2023, the PSOE obtained 31.7% of the votes and 121 seats, while the PP achieved 33.1% and 137 deputies. Vox then obtained 33 representatives, so the sum of both formations remained at 170 seats, six below the absolute majority. The balance between blocs allowed Sánchez to continue in La Moncloa thanks to the parliamentary support of Sumar and various nationalist and independence formations.
The situation reflected by the surveys of October 2026 presents important differences compared to that result. The PSOE has lost part of its support from 2023, while Vox registers a higher voting intention than it obtained at the polls three years ago. The PP, for its part, maintains a dispute with Abascal's formation over its electorate, although it continues ahead of Vox in the main published estimates.
The internal data released by La Razón do not detail what proportion of the socialist transfer specifically goes to the PP and which ends up in Vox. They also do not allow us to conclude that this percentage of voters has made a definitive decision, as vote transfers reflect declared preferences at the time of conducting a survey, not consolidated electoral results.
The PSOE compensates part of its losses by attracting former Sumar voters
The second conclusion from the information of La Razón is that Sánchez would be recovering part of the lost ground by attracting voters who supported Sumar in 2023, the coalition then led by Yolanda Díaz. This movement responds to a concentration of support around the PSOE within the progressive space, especially among those who believe that the socialists have better chances of leading a parliamentary alternative to the PP and Vox.
However, this transfer presents a difficulty for the entire left bloc. The votes that the PSOE gains from Sumar are not necessarily new support for the progressive space, but in many cases represent a displacement between candidacies that need to add their deputies to form a Government.
The data published by other polling firms also reflect this phenomenon. The survey by 40dB. for El País and Cadena SER, released on October 9, indicated that 12.2% of those who voted for Sumar in 2023 were now leaning towards the PSOE in a scenario of division of the alternative left. That percentage dropped to 8.4% when a unitary candidacy of Frente Amplio that included Podemos was proposed.
The difference is significant for the socialist strategy. A greater concentration of the progressive vote in the PSOE can improve the individual result of Sánchez's party, but it can also reduce the representation of the forces with which he would need to reach parliamentary agreements. Therefore, the recovery of the PSOE and that of the left as a whole do not have to advance at the same pace.
What the polls say: PP and Vox would exceed 176 deputies in several surveys
The information attributed to Moncloa coincides with a trend captured by a good part of the private polls published during October, which give the block formed by PP and Vox a total of seats greater than the 176 needed to reach an absolute majority.
The latest average from DatosRTVE, updated on October 23, places the Popular Party around 31.6% of the votes and 135 seats, while the PSOE would obtain 26.8% and 106 deputies. Vox would reach 18.7% and 65 representatives, so the sum of the formations of Feijóo and Abascal would be approximately 200 seats.
A similar picture appears in the survey from 40dB, published by El País on October 9, which assigned the PP a central estimate of 132 deputies and Vox 66. Together, both forces would reach 198 seats, although the study considers ranges of results and does not allow for certainty about what the composition of Congress will be after 29N.
For its part, NC Report for La Razón, in its survey published on October 8, placed the PP at 34.1% of the votes and between 146 and 148 deputies, while Vox reached 18.2% and between 61 and 64 seats. The PSOE, according to that same study, would obtain 25% of the votes and between 98 and 102 representatives.
These estimates are not unanimous. The CIS, in its barometer conducted between October 1 and 6, offered a different scenario, with the PSOE in first position, with 34% estimated vote, compared to 22.2% for the PP. The differences between polling institutes highlight the importance of considering methodologies, data collection dates, and margins of uncertainty before drawing definitive electoral conclusions.
The transfer of socialist votes also appears in public polls
The flight of former PSOE voters to the PP and Vox does not only appear in the internal data attributed to La Moncloa. Public polls also identify this phenomenon, although with significant differences in its magnitude.
The survey by 40dB. from early October estimated that 5.9% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would now lean towards the PP and 2.7% towards Vox. The joint transfer thus reached 8.6%, below the range of 10%-12% that La Razón attributes to the internal studies of Sánchez's environment.
On the other hand, NC Report for La Razón calculated in its survey of October 8 a leakage of 10.9% towards the PP and 6.8% towards Vox, which represents a total of 17.7%. These differences show that the figures change considerably depending on the study used and that the percentage attributed to Moncloa cannot be considered a definitive measure of electoral displacement.
Another relevant element is the voter loyalty. According to 40dB., the PSOE retained 70.9% of its 2023 voters, compared to 74.5% for the PP and 92.8% for Vox. This means that Abascal's party recorded, in that study, a particularly high proportion of former voters willing to repeat their choice.
The growth of Vox also conditions Feijóo's options
The scenario described by the polls raises an additional question for the Popular Party. Although Feijóo maintains the first position in a good part of the private polls, the growth of Vox modifies the balance of power within the right-wing space and may influence the conditions of a potential investiture.
According to the information published by La Razón, Abascal's formation has consolidated a base of voters who would not necessarily return to the PP in the last weeks of the campaign. This means that an increase in joint support for both formations does not have to translate into a proportional strengthening of the Popular Party, especially if Vox maintains or expands its parliamentary representation.
The effect of this distribution will be relevant in small constituencies, where the provincial distribution of deputies can benefit or harm different candidacies depending on the concentration of the vote. Unlike an election in a single constituency, in the Spanish general elections it is not enough to add the national percentages of several parties to know how many deputies they will obtain.
Furthermore, a potential parliamentary majority of PP and Vox does not solely determine the formula for Government. The participation of both formations in an Executive, the distribution of responsibilities, and the necessary agreements for an investiture would depend on the final results and subsequent negotiations.
Sánchez trusts in the mobilization of the progressive vote for 29N
The data known this Sunday arrives when Pedro Sánchez intensifies his public presence and electoral activity, with the declared objective of expanding the parliamentary support of the PSOE. In an interview published also on this October 25 by El País, the president has expressed his confidence in obtaining a sufficient progressive majority to continue governing and has rejected closing the electoral dispute.
The socialist leader is focusing part of his speech on the defense of social policies and warning about the changes that, in his opinion, would be introduced by a potential Government formed by PP and Vox. At the same time, the PSOE claims its economic management and places housing, pensions, and salaries among the priorities of the campaign.
The main unknown of the next five weeks will be whether the PSOE manages to recover voters who are now leaning towards other formations or abstention, and how the distribution of support within both blocks will evolve.
For the moment, the information from La Razón indicates that the internal studies handled in Moncloa identify a significant loss of former socialist voters towards PP and Vox, while public polls reflect a greater concentration of the vote to the left of the PSOE around Sánchez's candidacy.
On November 29, it will be verified what part of these movements effectively translates to the polls and how it translates into the composition of the next Congress of Deputies.