The peace negotiations in Ukraine and the role the European Union must take on in that process will focus the summit that brings together this week in Dublin the heads of State and Government of the EU, at a meeting that will not be attended by the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez. The meeting will also serve as the first informal exchange at the highest level about replacing Christine Lagarde at the head of the European Central Bank, a position the Spanish Pablo Hernández de Cos is seeking.
Although this Friday’s informal summit was initially intended to address the challenges of the governance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and how to gain an advantage over rivals such as the United States and China, concern on the part of leaders such as Italian Giorgia Meloni about the lack of coordination among the Twenty-Seven regarding the peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, driven by the United States, has led the President of the European Council, António Costa, to include this matter both on the agenda for Dublin and on that of the formal European Council in November.
The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has added pressure through a letter sent to Costa in which he calls for a stable solution to cover Kyiv’s financial needs and threatens to block an agreement on the EU’s budgetary framework after 2027 if progress is not made in that direction.
Sources from several delegations take it for granted that the meeting will also be used for the first moves on who will succeed Lagarde, with the former governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, and the Dutchman Klaas Knot as the main contenders. The leaders intend to close this appointment at the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on 26 and 27 November in Brussels.
As happens at every informal summit, explains a senior European diplomat, the Dublin European Council offers a “favorable” framework to deal with, with less rigidity, sensitive issues for the Twenty-Seven, such as “the balance within the ECB,” since other imminent vacancies at the top of the monetary authority will also be on the table.
In this context, sources from the Élysée point out that contacts have already taken place between Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz in an effort to articulate a balance and a common vision not only regarding “people” but also regarding the ECB’s missions and priorities, with the aim of ensuring an “orderly” and “rapid” transition that preserves the institution’s stability.
Conversations about Ukraine and continuity of support
In relation to Ukraine, the EU leaders will have the opportunity to address the matter already the day before, in a broader format that will include the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, during the summit of the European Political Community, which brings together this Thursday in Dublin nearly 50 leaders from the continent.
This broader forum aims to meet twice a year —the next gathering will be in Zurich in April of 20277— in order to articulate synergies and frameworks for cooperation in Europe, in a format created after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On this occasion, discussions will be organized around the motto "A strong, safe and connected Europe" and will focus on challenges such as the fight against drug trafficking, organized crime, and new threats such as disinformation used to destabilize the continent.
The attendance of the British 'premier', Andy Burnham, is expected, and, for the second time since the launch of this forum in 2022, the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, will also attend, in a new gesture of the willingness to bring Canada as close to the EU as possible without crossing the line of formal accession.
Despite the effort by Von der Leyen to point the way toward a model of an "associated member" in the recent EU-Canada summit, the final declaration did not go that far due to Germany’s opposition, so for now the bloc limits itself to continuing to strengthen bilateral cooperation.