The German political map continues to move away from what was left by the federal elections of February 2025. The latest poll from INSA, released on October 3 and collected by Electomanía, attributes 30% voting intention to Alternative for Germany (AfD), while the conservative alliance CDU/CSU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains at 18%. This is a twelve-point difference, the largest recent gap recorded by this institute between the two formations. Behind them are the SPD and the Greens, both at 14%, while Die Linke reaches 10%. FDP and BSW are at 4%, below the national threshold of 5% which, except for exceptions provided by the electoral system, allows access to the proportional distribution of seats.
The figure from INSA is particularly striking, but should not be interpreted in isolation. The ARD-DeutschlandTrend published on October 1 by Infratest dimap places AfD at 27% and CDU/CSU at 20%, with the Greens at 16%, SPD at 13%, and Die Linke at 11%. The Politbarometer from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, conducted between September 22 and 24, reflected another similar scenario: AfD at 28%, CDU/CSU at 21%, Greens at 14%, SPD at 13%, and Die Linke at 12%. The differences between institutes are normal due to methodology, dates, and samples, but the shared trend is that AfD currently appears ahead of the Union in the main national polls.
INSA raises the gap from ten to twelve points in a week
The evolution within the INSA poll itself also shows that the gap has widened in recent weeks. On September 26, AfD was at 29% compared to 19% for CDU/CSU, a ten-point difference. A week later, the former rises to 30% while the Union falls to 18%. SPD remains at 14%, the Greens drop from 15% to 14%, and Die Linke continues at 10%.
The picture is similar when the focus is broadened to other institutes. At the end of September, Forsa placed AfD at 26% and CDU/CSU at 19%; INSA, in a previous measurement, marked 29.5% against 19%; and Infratest dimap closed the month with 27% against 20%. A weighted average of polls compiled by Wahl.de placed AfD at around 27.9% and CDU/CSU at 19.7% at the beginning of October. The polls do not therefore offer exactly the same distance, but they do outline a very different scenario from the last federal elections.
What has changed since the 2025 elections
In the federal elections held on February 23, 2025, the CDU obtained 22.6% of the second votes and its Bavarian partner, the CSU, another 6%, which placed the conservative bloc together at around 28.6%. AfD then achieved 20.8%, practically doubling the result obtained four years earlier. The SPD remained at 16.4%, the Greens at 11.6%, and Die Linke at 8.8%.
Directly comparing those results with the latest INSA allows us to gauge the change recorded in voting intention: AfD now appears about nine points above its 2025 result, while CDU/CSU is more than ten points below what both formations summed up at the polls. It does not mean that this movement will be maintained until the next elections, but it does reflect the demographic deterioration currently affecting the bloc led by Merz.
The current Executive was formed precisely after those elections. CDU, CSU, and SPD govern jointly under the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz, a coalition that came to power with an agenda focused on economic recovery, public finances, security, social state reform, and foreign policy.
The popularity of Merz's Government is also at a low
The difficulties of CDU/CSU coincide with a strong deterioration in the valuation of the Executive. The ARD-DeutschlandTrend from October indicates that only 10% of respondents declare themselves satisfied with the work of the coalition and another 10% with Merz's performance as chancellor. The survey was conducted between September 28 and 30 on a sample of 1,303 citizens with the right to vote and presents a margin of fluctuation of between two and three points according to the analyzed percentage.
The Politbarometer from September offers another signal of wear: 79% considered that Merz was doing a rather bad job as chancellor and only 17% rated his performance positively. Furthermore, 67% doubted that he could generally implement the reform program announced by his Government, although at the same time 85% considered deep reforms necessary in Germany. These are distinct perceptions: there is a wide demand for changes, but a considerable part of the respondents questions the current Executive's ability to execute them.
The scenario occurs also after several regional elections held in September. Infratest dimap points out that AfD was the force with the most votes in Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, results that intensified the debate within the CDU about its national strategy and the evolution of the federal coalition.
SPD and Greens move around 13%-16%
The weakening of the Union is not translating, at least for now, into an equivalent recovery of its Government partner. The SPD, which obtained 16.4% in the 2025 elections, currently appears between 13% and 14% in the main polls. INSA places it at 14%, Infratest dimap at 13%, and the Politbarometer also at 13%.
The Greens present a different situation. After the 11.6% obtained in 2025, the latest measurements grant them between 14% and 16%. Die Linke is also above its electoral result of 8.8% and moves approximately between 10% and 12%. In contrast, FDP and BSW continue around or below 5%, a particularly important level in Germany because it conditions access to the Bundestag through proportional representation.
What the CDU's cordon to AfD means
The intention to vote does not solely determine what political combinations could be formed after an election. The CDU currently maintains its rejection of political cooperation with AfD. The Politbarometer from September specifically asked about this position and found that 59% of respondents supported the CDU ruling out collaboration with AfD, compared to 38% who did not consider that exclusion correct. Among CDU/CSU supporters themselves, the support for maintaining that separation rose to 67%.
Therefore, directly transferring the current percentages to a future Government would be premature. The German parliamentary system requires taking into account the distribution of seats, which parties ultimately surpass the electoral threshold, and what agreements they are willing to negotiate after the polls. Furthermore, there are still more than two years until the next ordinary federal election.
The next federal elections will be in 2029
Germany is currently not in a campaign to elect the Bundestag. The next ordinary federal election is scheduled for 2029. The current legislature began on March 25, 2025, and the regulations establish that the elections must be held between January 26 and March 25, 2029, unless the Bundestag is dissolved beforehand and early elections are called.
This forces us to read the figures with perspective. A survey essentially answers the question of which party citizens would choose if the elections were held now; it cannot anticipate what will happen in 2029 or how the economy, Merz's government, party leaderships, or voter concerns will evolve over the next few years.
The snapshot of October 3, 2026 is, however, clear in one aspect: INSA places AfD at 30% and CDU/CSU at 18%, while other institutes reduce that distance but maintain the same order in their recent measurements. More than an anticipated electoral result, the polls show the moment of strong wear that Merz's coalition is going through and a significant transformation of German voting intention just a year and a half after the last federal elections.