The housing crisis has become one of the main sources of social and political discontent in Spain, but its electoral impact does not seem to follow a simple relationship. According to data from Metroscopia released by its CEO, Ignacio Urquizu, and collected this Saturday by El Confidencial, Vox has once again approached 20% of voting intention, while the Popular Party remains stable around 30%-31% and the main left-wing parties worsen their records during the last week. Onda Cero, where Urquizu presented the analysis, confirms that same picture and points out that the detected movements do not currently represent an electoral turnaround.
The scenario coincides with a week marked by mobilizations for housing and the rejection in Congress of the two decrees promoted by the Government. Urquizu believes that part of the discontent is directed directly against the Executive and that this may be having effects on its support. "No one wins with what is happening and there is much to lose," summarized the head of Metroscopia, who places the entire left at its lowest level within the series managed by the institute since 2018.
Housing mobilizes, but not necessarily towards the left
One of the elements highlighted by the analysis is the apparent contradiction between support for certain housing policies and voting intention. A person may agree with limiting prices, expanding tenant protections, or intervening in the market and, at the same time, not consider the party that defends those measures as their electoral option. Urquizu argues that political preferences also depend on factors such as ideology, trust in parties, and especially, the mood of voters.
As explained by the CEO of Metroscopia, the difference between a "tired" electorate and an "angry" one may be relevant when mobilizing the vote. The analysis released by Onda Cero describes a higher level of mobilization among some sectors of the right, while part of the left would show signs of discouragement. It is, in any case, a demographic interpretation of the movements recorded during a week and not a forecast about the result of future elections.
Only three out of ten socialist voters see the PSOE as the best manager of housing
The problem for the Government also arises when asked who is more qualified to manage the housing crisis. According to the data presented by Urquizu and collected by El Confidencial, PSOE and PP appear in the top positions among those who mention a specific party, but the most frequent answer is "none". Furthermore, only around 30% of the socialist voters themselves consider PSOE the most qualified party to manage this issue.
The data points to a loss of confidence that goes beyond the assessment of specific measures. The Executive has placed housing among its political priorities during the legislature, but the escalation of rents, the mobilizations of recent days, and the parliamentary difficulties to push forward new regulations have increased the pressure on Moncloa. On Thursday, Congress rejected one of the housing decrees by 172 votes in favor and 178 against, with the opposing votes from PP, Vox, and Junts.
Vox approaches 20% again
The most notable movement of the week appears in Vox. Urquizu claims that the party has grown again to be close to 20%, while PP remains around 30%-31%. "This week Vox has risen, this week Vox has approached 20% again," he explained on Onda Cero.
Metroscopia has conducted, according to its CEO, about 4,000 simulations on its data to study the possible movements of the party. Urquizu argues that in those exercises Vox does not exceed 20%, something he links, among other factors, to its lower presence among voters over 50 or 55 years old. That conclusion corresponds to the model used by Metroscopia and should not be interpreted as a proven electoral ceiling nor as a prediction about future elections.
Ceuta would have already concentrated a good part of the effect of immigration
Another of the issues analyzed is the migration crisis in Ceuta, which in recent months has placed immigration at the center of political debate. According to Urquizu, Vox would have already concentrated a good part of the growth it could obtain from that issue, so the recent movements would be related to a broader political climate and not exclusively to the migration debate.
The person responsible for Metroscopia considers that the party is close to the limit currently reflected by its models, while the left-wing forces are going through a phase of greater weakness. Again, this is a reading of the available data at this moment: the evolution of public opinion can change depending on new events and a single week does not allow for establishing definitive electoral trends.
Corruption loses weight compared to the initial impact
The analysis by Metroscopia also addresses the electoral effect of the corruption cases that have affected the PSOE environment. Urquizu maintains that a good part of the impact already occurred during the previous months, especially among women, after the information related to José Luis Ábalos, Koldo García, and the conversations about prostitution.
According to the sociologist, during the last year there has been a partial recovery of the female vote towards the PSOE compared to the initial setback. His interpretation is that the electoral effect of those cases is already more incorporated into the preferences of the voters, although that does not mean that they have stopped influencing the evaluation of the Government.
A week of movements, not an electoral turnaround
The data also arrives amid a full debate on the duration of the legislature and the possibility of an early election, a question that has gained presence after the Government's recent parliamentary defeats. Metroscopia warns, however, that weekly movements should be interpreted with caution: Urquizu points out that public opinion does not usually experience sudden changes of ten points in voting intention from one week to another.
The picture left by the analysis published by El Confidencial is, therefore, that of a scenario in motion but still without abrupt changes: Vox approaches 20%, the PP continues around 30%-31%, and PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos decline, while housing gains weight as a political problem. The paradox for the left is that the strong discomfort over rents and access to a home is not automatically transforming into an improvement in their electoral expectations; for Metroscopia, ideology, trust, and mood continue to weigh as much as the specific position of each party regarding housing.