With the electoral results known during the early hours of the night, the Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of the United States Congress, thereby starting the remaining two years of the legislature with an opposition that promises to be especially firm against President Donald Trump and his Administration.
Beyond limiting Trump and his Government’s legislative capacity, the blue group, by controlling the House of Representatives, has the ability to initiate investigations into the president himself and his circle, in addition to subpoenaing senior officials of the Executive Branch to testify for alleged irregularities. But this does not end there: one of the tools with the greatest political impact provided by control of the lower chamber is the possibility of initiating an impeachment process, although its final approval would not depend solely on the Democratic Party, since the backing of two-thirds of the Senate would be needed to carry out the removal.
Donald Trump has already faced two impeachment processes during his first term, becoming the first President of the United States to be subjected to this constitutional procedure twice. The first took place in December 2019, when the House of Representatives accused him of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress for his pressure on Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden. The second arrived in January 2021, after the assault on the Capitol, when he was accused of incitement to insurrection. In both cases, the Senate ended up acquitting him, as the required two-thirds majority to convict him and remove him from the presidency was not reached.
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What is impeachment?
Impeachment is a constitutional procedure of a political nature through which American institutions can accuse the president of committing serious offenses or engaging in conduct that justifies his removal. It is a mechanism for controlling the executive branch that allows Congress to hold the country’s top representative accountable.
The first phase of this process takes place in the House of Representatives. The party that considers there to be sufficient grounds can push for investigations into possible irregularities committed by the president. Once the evidence has been examined and if it is considered that there are grounds to bring a charge, it is put to a vote. To move forward, it is enough to obtain a simple majority of the representatives.
Once the indictment is approved, the proceeding is transferred to the Senate, which assumes the role of a political court. In this second phase, the senators study the evidence presented and hear the arguments of the parties before casting their vote. Unlike what happens in the House of Representatives, for the removal to be effective two thirds of the senators present are required. That is, a simple majority would no longer be enough. If the Senate approved the conviction and Trump were removed from the presidency, JD Vance, as vice president, would automatically assume the office of president of the United States. The succession is contemplated in the U.S. Constitution and would allow the current vice president to complete the term until January 2029.
Why the possible removal of Trump is not such good news for the Democratic Party?
With Trump out of the equation, JD Vance would assume the presidency of the United States. At first glance, this scenario could seem favorable to Democratic interests, especially after securing control of both chambers of Congress. However, it is worth analyzing the political consequences that could result from this change in the White House.
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At the start of his term, Vance could focus much of his efforts on addressing some of the problems that worry Americans the most and that have contributed to the electoral wear and tear of the Republican Party. If he managed to distance himself from the most criticized Trump policies and made decisions that the average citizen valued more, some aspects of everyday American life could see an improvement.
This scenario could translate into an increase in the approval rating of the new president, who would face the 2028 presidential elections from a position of greater strength and with a potentially more favorable public image than that of the previous Administration. Under those circumstances, a new victory for the Republican Party would not be an out-of-the-question scenario. Vance could run in the elections and get the Republicans to remain in the White House for another four years, thereby frustrating the Democrats’ expectations of regaining the presidency.
To top it off, this situation has to be added to with a constitutional question that could expand Vance’s political horizon even further. The twenty-second amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits to two the number of times a person can be elected president. However, there is a particularity for those vice presidents who assume the presidency during the term of another president: if they serve in office for two years or less of the original term, they can stand for two additional presidential elections.
Therefore, the two years that would elapse between a hypothetical removal of Donald Trump and the end of his term would not be taken into account for limiting JD Vance’s future presidential candidacies. Consequently, if Trump were removed from office during the next political year and Vance managed to secure two consecutive electoral victories, he could remain in the presidency for a period of up to ten years.
Thus, a tool conceived to hold the president accountable could end up offering the Republican Party an opportunity to reorganize, renew its image, and extend its presence in the White House. A scenario that shows that, in U.S. politics, the departure of a president does not necessarily imply a victory for his adversaries.