The Partido Popular would be ahead of the PSOE in the general elections next November 29, although with an advantage of just 2.3 percentage points. So reports the latest poll by Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia, published this Sunday, November 1, which gives Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party 29.2% of the votes, compared with the 26.9% that Pedro Sánchez's party would obtain. The survey comes less than a month before the election date and shows a scenario of competition between the two major parties, with Vox consolidated as the third force.
The most significant figure is the growth of Vox, which would reach 19.2% of the votes, almost seven points more than in the 2023 elections. The sum of PP and Vox would thus stand at 48.4% of the national vote, while the set of forces that supported Sánchez's investiture would gather around 43.5%. However, these percentages do not by themselves allow the definitive distribution of seats to be determined, which will depend on the results in each province.
The poll is the first carried out by Sondaxe since the calling of the general elections and presents an important peculiarity: fieldwork ended on Wednesday, October 28, the same day as the Urda (Toledo) railway accident. Therefore, the study barely captures the possible consequences of the tragedy on citizens' electoral preferences, at a time when railway safety and the Government's management have come to occupy much of the political debate.
The PP loses almost four points compared with 2023 and the PSOE falls by nearly five
Although the PP leads the vote estimate, the poll shows that both the conservatives and the Socialists would lose support compared with the last general elections. In July 2023, Feijóo's candidacy obtained 33.1% of the votes, while now Sondaxe attributes 29.2% to it, which represents a drop of almost four points.
The decline would be somewhat greater in the case of the PSOE. Pedro Sánchez would go from the 31.7% registered in 2023 to 26.9%, a loss of approximately 4.8 percentage points. The distance between the two parties would therefore be only 2.3 points, despite the fact that both formations would retreat in vote share.
This evolution coincides with the increase in support for other candidacies, especially Vox. According to the study data, Santiago Abascal’s party would be the main beneficiary of the transfer of voters from the PP, while the PSOE would also record losses to the conservatives and an increase in voters who have still not decided on their vote.
The result reflects a greater fragmentation of the electoral landscape, in which the two major parties continue to concentrate most of the votes, but with a growing weight of the formations that compete for the same political spaces.
Vox rises to 19.2% and the Frente Amplio stands at 7.2%
Vox would be the state formation that would grow the most compared to the 2023 results, rising from 12.4% to 19.2% of the votes, according to the Sondaxe estimate. Abascal’s party would remain the third force and would reduce the gap with the PSOE, which would be 7.7 percentage points away.
In the space located to the left of the Socialists, the Frente Amplio, coalition heir to Sumar, would obtain 7.2% of the votes. The figure is below the 12.3% obtained by the candidacy headed by Yolanda Díaz in the 2023 general elections, although the comparison must take into account the changes in the alliances and in the composition of the candidacies.
For its part, Podemos would reach 2% of the national vote, while Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the party of Alvise Pérez, would obtain 2.5%. In both cases, parliamentary representation would depend on the territorial concentration of their support, since the Spanish electoral system allocates seats by provincial constituencies.
The sum of PP and Vox would reach 48.4%, compared with the 36.1% that PSOE and Frente Amplio would gather. If the other formations that supported Sánchez’s investiture are added, that second bloc would stand at around 43.5%, according to the data collected by La Voz de Galicia.
These figures show the importance that parliamentary alliances could have after the elections, although the published poll does not offer a detailed seat projection that would make it possible to take an absolute majority for granted.
13.9% of the PP voters from 2023 would switch to Vox
The study also analyzes how the citizens who participated in the last general elections would behave. The PP would retain 77% of those who voted for it in 2023, while the PSOE would retain 69.4% of its former voters. Vox would show higher voting loyalty, at 85.4%.
Among the most relevant movements, it stands out that 13.9% of the PP voters from 2023 now declare their intention to vote for Vox. In the opposite direction, 6.3% of those who then supported Abascal's party would currently opt for the conservatives.
In the PSOE, 5.8% of its former voters would now lean toward the PP, while another 9.7% remains undecided or is not clear whether they will go to vote. The Broad Front would also face difficulties in retaining the support obtained by Sumar in the previous general elections, with part of its former voters leaning toward the PSOE and others toward Podemos.
The survey likewise identifies differences among those who will vote for the first time. Vox would concentrate 20.8% of the preferences of new voters, while PP and PSOE would split approximately a quarter of that vote between them. The Broad Front would reach 10.4% and 6.3% of new voters says that it would not participate in the elections.
Feijóo and Sánchez: which candidate do the respondents believe will be president
Sondaxe has also asked citizens who they believe will hold the Presidency of the Government after the November 29 elections. 45.8% of those surveyed answer that Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be the next president, while 32% consider that Pedro Sánchez will continue at the head of the Executive.
Another 11.8% believes that neither of the two will lead the next Government and 10.4% prefers not to answer. These percentages reflect the expectations of the interviewees, not an estimate of the result of the investiture.
By political affinity, 75.2% of PP voters believe that Feijóo will reach La Moncloa, an opinion also shared by 68.5% of Vox voters. In contrast, 61.3% of socialist voters consider that Sánchez will continue to be president.
The study also includes the assessment of the political leaders. None of the four main state candidates reaches a passing grade: Feijóo gets a 4 out of 10, Sánchez a 3.8, Santiago Abascal a 3.5 and Ada Colau, candidate of the Broad Front, a 3.1.
The survey points to an abstention of 22.8% and keeps the vote of the undecided open
Another of the elements highlighted by the study is voter turnout. Sondaxe estimates an abstention rate of 22.8%, which would be equivalent to a turnout close to 77.2%, higher than that recorded in the general elections of July 2023.
The poll also shows that approximately one in every ten voters remains undecided. The uncertainty is especially relevant among those who are not clear whether they will go to the polls and among voters who are considering changing parties.
By age, the survey indicates that 27.8% of citizens between 30 and 44 years old would lean toward abstention, while among those over 65, PP and PSOE concentrate approximately half of the preferences, with a similar split between both formations.
These data help explain why the estimates may change over the next few weeks. The final turnout, the decision of the undecided, and the territorial distribution of the vote will be determining elements in knowing the composition of the next Congress of Deputies.
A poll published after Urda, but conducted before knowing its consequences
The survey has been published at a particularly delicate moment of the pre-campaign, after the railway accident in Urda last October 28, which has triggered a political crisis centered on the management of infrastructure and the safety of the Spanish railway network.
However, Sondaxe's fieldwork concluded on the same day as the accident, so it does not allow a reliable measurement of whether the tragedy has altered citizens' electoral preferences. Attributing the vote changes recorded in the study to that accident would therefore be a conclusion that the available data do not support.
With the general elections scheduled for November 29, the Sondaxe snapshot places PP at 29.2%, PSOE at 26.9% and Vox at 19.2%. The main difference with the 2023 results is the simultaneous decline of the conservatives and socialists and the increase in support for Vox, while the space to the left of PSOE faces a scenario of greater division.
Feijóo's lead over Sánchez is 2.3 points, but the electoral result remains open. The survey offers an estimate of voting preferences on the dates on which it was conducted, not a guarantee about who will win the elections or which parties will be able to form a Government.