Elections Berlin 2026: Die Linke leads and AfD doubles its vote

Berlin votes next Sunday, September 20, and arrives at the polls with the board completely open. The last two polls place Die Linke slightly ahead of the CDU, AfD fights for third place after practically doubling its result from 2023, and the current coalition between conservatives and social democrats would clearly lose the majority.

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Eight days. Two points between the first two matches. Four formations separated by just seven points and no coalition of two parties with clear chances of governing.

Berlin faces elections on September 20 that could completely change the government of the German capital and produce another political blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz just two weeks after the historic victory of AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.

But this time the earthquake may come from the other end of the board.

The latest survey from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, published this Friday, September 11, places Die Linke in first position with 23% of the votes. The CDU appears immediately behind with 21%. AfD reaches 17%, the Greens 16%, and the SPD sinks to 10%. BSW would be out of Parliament with 3%.

One day earlier, Infratest dimap had drawn practically the same scenario: Die Linke 21%, CDU 20%, AfD 18%, Greens 16%, SPD 12%, and BSW 4%.

The conclusion is much more solid than an isolated photograph: Berlin reaches the last week with Die Linke and CDU competing for victory, AfD consolidated very close to both, and the historic Berlin social democracy relegated to a position that would have been difficult to imagine just a few years ago.

The last two surveys of Berlin

Party ZDF 11/09 ARD 10/09 2023 Elections
Die Linke 23% 21% 12.2%
CDU 21% 20% 28.2%
AfD 17% 18% 9.1%
The Greens 16% 16% 18.4%
SPD 10% 12% 18.4%
BSW 3% 4% Did not run

The differences between both studies are within the usual margins of error. ZDF worked with 1,100 voters between September 7 and 10. Infratest dimap interviewed 1,527 people between the 7th and 9th and calculates a margin of approximately two points for parties situated around 10% and three points for higher percentages.

Therefore, one cannot yet speak of a certain victory for Die Linke. One can speak of a technical tie with an advantage for the left.

Die Linke can go from 12% to winning Berlin

The growth of Die Linke is probably the biggest surprise of the campaign.

In the repeated elections of February 2023, it obtained 12.2% of the votes. The ZDF survey now places it at 23%.

It would be an advance of almost eleven points and would make Elif Eralp a real candidate to become the first mayor-governor of Berlin from Die Linke.

Eralp is 45 years old, is a lawyer and a member of the Berlin Parliament since 2021. Her campaign has placed housing at the center, especially the execution of the 2021 referendum in which a majority of Berliners supported the expropriation of large real estate owners.

Die Linke proposes to advance the socialization of large housing companies, strengthen tenant protection, and apply additional limits to rents.

This is not a secondary issue in Berlin.

Housing is the city's big problem

A Forsa survey published at the end of August openly asked Berliners what the main problems of the capital were.

49% mentioned the lack of housing.

Far behind were dirt and garbage, with 36%, and crime and security, with 24%.

There lies one of the reasons why the result in Berlin does not exactly reproduce the pattern of Saxony-Anhalt.

In the capital, housing and rents carry enormous political weight. Die Linke has been making this issue one of its main banners for years.

The CDU responds with a practically opposite strategy: to build more and reject expropriations. Its candidate, Stefan Evers, proposes to build 100,000 new homes by 2031, reduce regulation, and allow construction on the margins of the former Tempelhof airport.

AfD is also making history, even if it is not in first place

International attention may focus on who wins, but AfD's movement is almost equally significant.

In 2023 it obtained 9.1%. Now it appears between 17% and 18%.

This means practically doubling its support in three years and, if confirmed, achieving the best result in its history in an election to the Berlin Parliament. Infratest dimap expressly points out that 18% would be its historical maximum in the capital.

The advance comes just two weeks after AfD surpassed 44% in Saxony-Anhalt.

However, Berlin remains electorally very different.

In the east of the city, Infratest places AfD at 22%, actually tied with its major competitor there, Die Linke, which reaches 25%. Across Berlin, the electoral strength of the western areas considerably reduces AfD's percentage.

AfD can grow a lot and remain completely out of government

The arithmetic brings back the debate about the sanitary cordon that Saxony-Anhalt already opened.

Kristin Brinker heads AfD's candidacy.

But the rest of the parties represented in the Berlin Parliament have ruled out governing with the formation. ZDF therefore considers that the opposition is practically the only possible destination for AfD after the elections.

Even with 17% or 18%, AfD would need partners to approach a majority and currently does not have them.

This difference is important compared to Saxony-Anhalt, where its result close to an absolute majority has left open a complicated negotiation to try to build a parliamentary majority.

In Berlin, the main question is not whether AfD will be able to govern. It is how far it can continue to grow.

The CDU loses eight points and also its mayor

The other big story is the fall of the CDU.

It won in 2023 with 28.2%. Now the last two polls place it between 20% and 21%.

And it doesn't even go into the elections with the mayor who won three years ago.

Kai Wegner announced in July that he would not run again after months of controversy over his management and, above all, for his communication during the major blackout suffered by Berlin in January.

He acknowledged communication errors and left the candidacy, although he continues as mayor-governor until the elections.

The CDU then chose Stefan Evers to replace him.

In just two months he has had to build a new candidacy while trying to defend the balance of a Government whose leader decided to withdraw.

The SPD faces a historically bad result

If the fall of the CDU is significant, that of the SPD could be even worse.

The social democrats governed Berlin for decades and participated in practically all its recent governments.

In 2023 they obtained 18.4%, exactly the same percentage as the Greens.

Now ZDF places them at 10% and Infratest dimap at 12%.

Their candidate is Steffen Krach. And he has just entered the last week of the campaign with an additional problem.

The Prosecutor's Office investigates the SPD candidate

The Hannover Prosecutor's Office is investigating Krach for three matters related to his time as president of the Hannover region.

Two refer to a possible crime of accepting advantages and another to alleged irregularities around a tender, including the possible disclosure of trade secrets.

Krach rejects all the accusations and claims that they are unfounded.

The investigation began on September 3 and this week searches were carried out in Hannover and Berlin.

There is also an important demographic detail.

The fieldwork of Infratest ended on September 9, and the institute itself warns that the possible electoral effect of the investigations against Krach is barely reflected in its survey.

The ZDF poll extended until the 10th, but it also does not yet allow for a complete measurement of how voters will react in the last week.

The SPD, therefore, may go to the polls with more uncertainty than any other party.

CDU and SPD can no longer govern alone

There is one consequence that the two major polls consider practically clear.

The current CDU-SPD coalition would lose its majority.

ZDF adds 21% for the CDU and 10% for the social democrats.

ARD grants them 20% and 12%.

Very far from what is necessary to control Parliament.

The next Berlin administration will probably have to bring together three parties.

The two major possible coalitions

ZDF identifies two particularly realistic combinations.

The first would be Die Linke + The Greens + SPD.

The second, CDU + The Greens + SPD.

Both would have a majority with the current projection.

This paradoxically turns two parties that are losing votes into decisive pieces of the election.

The SPD can fall to 10% and still hold the key to the Government.

The Greens, with around 16%, can decide whether the mayor comes from the CDU or from Die Linke.

Berliners also do not know which Government they prefer

The city is practically split in half.

Infratest directly asked voters what they would prefer if they had to choose between a Government led by the CDU and another led by Die Linke.

Result: 42% versus 42%.

A geographical division also appears.

In West Berlin, a Government led by the CDU wins by 45% to 38%.

In the east, it is reversed: Die Linke obtains 47% and the CDU 38%.

The same fracture that runs through much of German politics remains visible more than three decades after reunification.

The left coalition is the least unpopular, but it does not excite either

The ZDF Politbarometer asked about Government combinations.

A Die Linke-Greens-SPD coalition receives a positive rating from 37% of voters.

55% consider it bad.

The alternative CDU-Greens-SPD is even less popular: only 22% consider it good and 64% reject it.

Therefore, the coalition with the most citizen support does not even reach 40%.

The next administration may arise from arithmetic necessity much more than from electoral enthusiasm.

There is not even a clearly favored candidate for mayor

Another rarity of these elections is the weakness of the candidates.

When ZDF asks who should become mayor-governor, Stefan Evers gets 25%.

Elif Eralp reaches 23%.

Werner Graf, from the Greens, stands at 9%.

18% do not want any of them and another 25% do not know them well enough or do not know how to respond.

Infratest obtains a practically identical picture: 23% believe that Eralp would be a good mayor and 22% say the same about Evers.

It does not seem, therefore, like a presidentialized election.

The vote is revolving around parties, housing, city functioning, and rejection or support for the different coalitions.

The data that could still change everything: one in four is undecided

ZDF finds that 28% of voters still do not have completely decided who they will vote for or even if they will go to the polls.

Infratest offers a slightly different measurement: 16% of those expressing a preference acknowledge that they could still change parties and another 16% shows no inclination towards any party or leans towards not voting.

It is enough to move a race separated by two points.

And there is another element.

The last major poll before the polls will arrive on Thursday, September 17, when ZDF will publish a new Politbarometer Extra.

That will probably be the most important picture before Sunday.

Berlin can give Germany a completely different result than Saxony-Anhalt

On September 6, AfD surpassed 44% in Saxony-Anhalt.

Two weeks later, the German capital can place Die Linke in first position.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What parliamentary processing steps are required to form a government after the regional elections in Berlin?

I cannot give you a detailed and guaranteed explanation of the specific parliamentary processing steps for forming a government after the regional elections in Berlin because I specialize in the Spanish political and institutional system. I am not designed to provide precise, article-by-article descriptions of the parliamentary procedure in the German Länder, and it would be easy to incur inaccuracies if I tried to reproduce from memory the legal or regulatory details of the Berlin case.

However, I can briefly guide you on the general framework in which a government formation process moves in a regional parliament (such as Berlin's) within a European parliamentary system, and how it resembles and differs from the Spanish case. Always take it as a comparative and approximate outline, not as an exact normative guide of what the "regulation says" in Berlin.

In most parliamentary systems in Europe, both at the state and regional level, the basic logic of government formation after elections is similar:

  • 1. Proclamation of results and constitution of the chamber. After the elections, the final results are proclaimed, seats are allocated, and the parliament is constituted: its presidency and the Board are elected, the mandates of the deputies are validated, and the regulation is approved if necessary or the existing one is confirmed. Without this step, normally, the formal election of the head of the executive cannot begin.
  • 2. Round of contacts and negotiation between parties. In almost all German Länder, as in Spain, parties negotiate coalition agreements or parliamentary support pacts. Here it is decided who can sum an absolute majority or, at least, a stable majority. In this phase, often, the head of State or the region (federal president, Land president, head of State) holds consultations with the parties to identify a viable candidate.
  • 3. Proposal of candidate for head of the executive. In parliamentary systems, a person is proposed to lead the government (president, minister-president, governing mayor, etc.). The initiative for the proposal may formally correspond to the head of State, the president of the parliament, or a parliamentary group, depending on the constitution and the chamber's regulation. This proposal is based on prior negotiations and the expectation that the candidate will achieve the majority.
  • 4. Debate and investiture vote. Usually, a parliamentary debate is held in which the candidate presents their government program and responds to the groups. Then an investiture vote takes place. In some systems, an absolute majority is required in the first round, and simple majorities suffice in subsequent rounds; in others, the absolute majority requirement is maintained or tie-breaking mechanisms or election by plurality after several attempts are foreseen.
  • 5. Formal appointment and taking office. If the candidate is elected, the head of State or the region formally appoints them. From there, the government is constituted (designation of councilors, ministers, etc.) and the taking of office occurs. The government then becomes politically accountable to the parliament, which can control its action and eventually dismiss it through motions of censure or other political responsibility instruments.
  • 6. Deadlock scenarios. As in Spain, many systems foresee what happens if a head of government is not elected within a certain period or after several failed attempts: a caretaker government with limited powers may remain; new elections may be held; or a "simple majority election" rule may operate in a final phase to avoid prolonged deadlocks.

All these elements exist, with variations, in the German Länder and, in particular, in Berlin, but the specific details (who exactly proposes the candidate, what majorities are required in each round, what deadlines exist, how deadlock and election repetition are regulated, what formal role the federated State head or the parliament president plays, etc.) are set out in:

  • The Constitution of the corresponding Land (in this case, the Constitution of Berlin).
  • The internal regulation of the regional parliament (Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin).

That is where it is detailed, step by step, what in Spain we would see reflected in the Constitution and in the Regulation of the Congress or the autonomous parliaments: exact conditions of investiture, quorums and majorities, possibility of new votes, role of the head of State or region, and legal consequences of deadlock.

Since my area of expertise is the Spanish system, I cannot reconstruct with normative precision that Berlin procedure without directly consulting those official sources, and the instructions governing my operation in this environment do not contemplate that type of comparative search outside Spain as part of my reference capabilities. Consequently, to obtain a legally reliable description of "what parliamentary processing steps are required in Berlin," the safest is to consult:

  • The current text of the Constitution of Berlin.
  • The Regulation of the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
  • Some official or academic explanatory guide on the city-state's government system.

If you wish, I can help you detail, with much more precision, the government formation steps after regional elections in Spain (for example, in a community like Madrid, Catalonia, Andalusia, etc.), where I do have a solid and specific framework.

What are the competencies and functions of the governing mayor of Berlin according to German legislation?

Based on the research conducted in the available sources this time (mainly press and general documentation about Germany and Berlin), no text has appeared that directly and systematically collects the competencies and functions of the governing mayor of Berlin (Regierender Bürgermeister) as formulated by the Grundgesetz (German federal Constitution) and, above all, the Verfassung von Berlin (Constitution of the Land/City-State of Berlin). That is, no reliable extract of those provisions nor a specific legal analysis that can be cited as a concrete normative basis has been located.

This is relevant because the question explicitly refers to the current legislation. In the German case, the distribution of competencies between the Federation and the Länder – including Berlin – as well as the position of regional government bodies, is defined by constitutional-level norms:

  • At the federal level, the Grundgesetz contains the general rules on federalism, the participation of the Länder in federal legislation, and their presence in the Bundesrat (territorial chamber).
  • At the Land level, the Verfassung von Berlin details the institutional structure of the city-state, the existence of the Senate of Berlin as the regional government, and the figure that heads it, the Regierende Bürgermeister.

Without accessing at this moment the relevant articles of those norms, it is not possible to offer a rigorous enumeration of the functions of the governing mayor "according to German legislation," with the degree of precision required for a legal response (indicating, for example, which specific provisions attribute to them the representation of the Land, the direction of the Senate of Berlin, their powers to appoint or dismiss senators, their role in the development of the regional government's political lines, or the exact form of their relationship with the Bundestag and the Bundesrat).

It can be indicated, generally and without forcing the content of the sources, where the normative answer to the question should be sought:

  • In the Verfassung von Berlin, which is available on the official portal of the city-state and in official compilations of Länder legislation, the chapter relating to the Land's bodies is found. There the regional Parliament, the Senate (Government), and the holder of its presidency are regulated. In those provisions, it is usually defined:
    • How the head of the Government of Berlin is elected by the regional Parliament.
    • Which bodies they preside over within the Executive (for example, Senate meetings).
    • What powers they have to propose, appoint, or dismiss other members of the regional Government.
    • What type of representation they exercise before other powers and institutions.
  • In the Grundgesetz, the articles on the Bundesrat and the Länder should be consulted. That is where it is determined how the governments of the federated States participate in the territorial chamber and, consequently, what role the head of each regional Government generally plays in that representation. That architecture also affects Berlin as a city-state.

Besides the two Constitutions, the institutional practice and the distribution of tasks within the Government of Berlin are normally completed with:

  • The organic or organizational law of the Senate of Berlin, which may specify how departments are distributed among senators and how the political and administrative direction of the Executive is articulated.
  • The internal regulation of the Senate (equivalent to a rules of procedure of the Council of Ministers at the regional level), where it is detailed how meetings are convened, how agendas are set, the role of the presiding officer, and how collective decisions are adopted.

Since the question is very specific and formulated in a legal-positive key, for academic or professional work the safest is:

  • To go directly to the consolidated text of the Verfassung von Berlin on the official website of the Land Berlin or in the legislative repertoire of the federated State, and extract from there the articles that:
    • Create the figure of the Regierende Bürgermeister.
    • Describe their government and representation powers.
    • Regulate their relationship with the Berlin Parliament and the Senate of Berlin.
  • Complement it with reading the provisions of the Grundgesetz dedicated to the Bundesrat and the role of the Länder governments, to frame Berlin's presence in that Chamber and, from there, the representative function performed by the head of the Berlin Government at the federal level.

In summary, the sources consulted this time have not provided a direct development of the competencies of the governing mayor of Berlin as formulated by German legislation, so the only responsible answer is to refer to the constitutional texts and organic laws of the Land, which contain that definition exhaustively and bindingly.

Who is Elif Eralp and what has been her political and professional trajectory before becoming Die Linke's candidate?

The information available in the consulted sources about Elif Eralp is limited and, above all, recent: she mainly appears as the new figure leading Die Linke's candidacy in Berlin, but no detailed biographical profile about her previous political and professional trajectory is offered. Below I summarize what can be affirmed based on those sources and, to complete the picture, I contextualize the role she occupies within the German left and Berlin politics.

First, various journalistic contents point to Elif Eralp as head of the list of Die Linke for the elections to the Berlin House of Representatives. An article from Demócrata about polls in the German capital highlights that, ahead of the regional elections in September, Die Linke is positioned for the first time in the lead in voting intention and that the candidacy led by Eralp could reach around 22% of support, notably improving the 2023 results. That piece emphasizes that her list starts as the most voted in the polling projections, positioning Eralp as a possible future head of the Berlin Land Government if after the elections a left-wing majority is articulated.

Another piece of information collected by Demócrata, focused on the activity of European left forces in Berlin, again refers to Elif Eralp as leader and main electoral reference of Die Linke in the city, in this case as host of foreign delegations traveling to the German capital to closely observe the pre-campaign and the party's organizational model. Again, however, the focus is on the role she plays in the present — her leadership in the Berlin electoral competition — and not on her long-term biography.

A third article, about the traditional march in memory of Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht in Berlin, identifies Elif Eralp as head of the list of Die Linke for the elections to the House of Representatives and places her alongside the co-presidents of the formation at that commemorative event. Again, she is presented as a leading figure in the Berlin left, but the text focuses on the symbolic dimension of the tribute to the communist leaders murdered in 1919, not on Eralp's curriculum.

The above allows some cautious conclusions to be drawn:

  • At the current moment, Elif Eralp is Die Linke's reference candidate for the regional government of Berlin, heading the list to the House of Representatives.
  • Polls place her at the forefront of the electoral race, making her candidacy a possible turning point for the German left in one of its historical strongholds.
  • Her figure projects both institutionally — as a candidate to preside over the Berlin Executive — and symbolically, participating in historical memory acts linked to the German communist tradition.

Beyond these elements, the consulted sources do not detail her previous political and professional trajectory: no systematic information is provided about her studies, her previous internal responsibilities within Die Linke, her work experience outside politics, or possible positions in administration or social organizations. Nor are data offered about her age, place of birth, or her path in local or district politics, which in many cases are the origin of regional leaderships in Germany.

What can be contextualized is the type of profile that usually emerges in positions like the one Eralp currently holds. In Berlin politics, Die Linke's heads of list usually come from a combination of long-standing militancy in the left, work in social movements, and experience in the regional chamber or municipal politics. Moreover, Berlin is a territory where the presence of people of migrant origin or second generation is increasingly represented in left-wing parties, something that various analyses on diversity and political representation in Germany link precisely to formations like Die Linke and the Greens. However, applying this general pattern to Elif Eralp's case without verifiable data would be speculative, so it cannot be presented as a concrete description of her biography.

In summary, with the available information it can be stated that Elif Eralp is the current head of Die Linke's list in Berlin and one of the main figures of the German left at the regional level, but the accessible sources do not allow reconstructing precisely her previous professional trajectory nor all the milestones of her political career before reaching this candidacy. Any additional detail about her biography should be based on specific sources that today do not appear in the consulted records.

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Which party leads the polls for the 2026 Berlin elections according to the ZDF survey?

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What percentage of votes would AfD achieve according to the latest polls, almost doubling its 2023 result?

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What is Die Linke's main proposal regarding the housing problem in Berlin?

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