Eight days. Two points between the first two matches. Four formations separated by just seven points and no coalition of two parties with clear chances of governing.
Berlin faces elections on September 20 that could completely change the government of the German capital and produce another political blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz just two weeks after the historic victory of AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.
But this time the earthquake may come from the other end of the board.
The latest survey from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, published this Friday, September 11, places Die Linke in first position with 23% of the votes. The CDU appears immediately behind with 21%. AfD reaches 17%, the Greens 16%, and the SPD sinks to 10%. BSW would be out of Parliament with 3%.
One day earlier, Infratest dimap had drawn practically the same scenario: Die Linke 21%, CDU 20%, AfD 18%, Greens 16%, SPD 12%, and BSW 4%.
The conclusion is much more solid than an isolated photograph: Berlin reaches the last week with Die Linke and CDU competing for victory, AfD consolidated very close to both, and the historic Berlin social democracy relegated to a position that would have been difficult to imagine just a few years ago.
The last two surveys of Berlin
| Party | ZDF 11/09 | ARD 10/09 | 2023 Elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Die Linke | 23% | 21% | 12.2% |
| CDU | 21% | 20% | 28.2% |
| AfD | 17% | 18% | 9.1% |
| The Greens | 16% | 16% | 18.4% |
| SPD | 10% | 12% | 18.4% |
| BSW | 3% | 4% | Did not run |
The differences between both studies are within the usual margins of error. ZDF worked with 1,100 voters between September 7 and 10. Infratest dimap interviewed 1,527 people between the 7th and 9th and calculates a margin of approximately two points for parties situated around 10% and three points for higher percentages.
Therefore, one cannot yet speak of a certain victory for Die Linke. One can speak of a technical tie with an advantage for the left.
Die Linke can go from 12% to winning Berlin
The growth of Die Linke is probably the biggest surprise of the campaign.
In the repeated elections of February 2023, it obtained 12.2% of the votes. The ZDF survey now places it at 23%.
It would be an advance of almost eleven points and would make Elif Eralp a real candidate to become the first mayor-governor of Berlin from Die Linke.
Eralp is 45 years old, is a lawyer and a member of the Berlin Parliament since 2021. Her campaign has placed housing at the center, especially the execution of the 2021 referendum in which a majority of Berliners supported the expropriation of large real estate owners.
Die Linke proposes to advance the socialization of large housing companies, strengthen tenant protection, and apply additional limits to rents.
This is not a secondary issue in Berlin.
Housing is the city's big problem
A Forsa survey published at the end of August openly asked Berliners what the main problems of the capital were.
49% mentioned the lack of housing.
Far behind were dirt and garbage, with 36%, and crime and security, with 24%.
There lies one of the reasons why the result in Berlin does not exactly reproduce the pattern of Saxony-Anhalt.
In the capital, housing and rents carry enormous political weight. Die Linke has been making this issue one of its main banners for years.
The CDU responds with a practically opposite strategy: to build more and reject expropriations. Its candidate, Stefan Evers, proposes to build 100,000 new homes by 2031, reduce regulation, and allow construction on the margins of the former Tempelhof airport.
AfD is also making history, even if it is not in first place
International attention may focus on who wins, but AfD's movement is almost equally significant.
In 2023 it obtained 9.1%. Now it appears between 17% and 18%.
This means practically doubling its support in three years and, if confirmed, achieving the best result in its history in an election to the Berlin Parliament. Infratest dimap expressly points out that 18% would be its historical maximum in the capital.
The advance comes just two weeks after AfD surpassed 44% in Saxony-Anhalt.
However, Berlin remains electorally very different.
In the east of the city, Infratest places AfD at 22%, actually tied with its major competitor there, Die Linke, which reaches 25%. Across Berlin, the electoral strength of the western areas considerably reduces AfD's percentage.
AfD can grow a lot and remain completely out of government
The arithmetic brings back the debate about the sanitary cordon that Saxony-Anhalt already opened.
Kristin Brinker heads AfD's candidacy.
But the rest of the parties represented in the Berlin Parliament have ruled out governing with the formation. ZDF therefore considers that the opposition is practically the only possible destination for AfD after the elections.
Even with 17% or 18%, AfD would need partners to approach a majority and currently does not have them.
This difference is important compared to Saxony-Anhalt, where its result close to an absolute majority has left open a complicated negotiation to try to build a parliamentary majority.
In Berlin, the main question is not whether AfD will be able to govern. It is how far it can continue to grow.
The CDU loses eight points and also its mayor
The other big story is the fall of the CDU.
It won in 2023 with 28.2%. Now the last two polls place it between 20% and 21%.
And it doesn't even go into the elections with the mayor who won three years ago.
Kai Wegner announced in July that he would not run again after months of controversy over his management and, above all, for his communication during the major blackout suffered by Berlin in January.
He acknowledged communication errors and left the candidacy, although he continues as mayor-governor until the elections.
The CDU then chose Stefan Evers to replace him.
In just two months he has had to build a new candidacy while trying to defend the balance of a Government whose leader decided to withdraw.
The SPD faces a historically bad result
If the fall of the CDU is significant, that of the SPD could be even worse.
The social democrats governed Berlin for decades and participated in practically all its recent governments.
In 2023 they obtained 18.4%, exactly the same percentage as the Greens.
Now ZDF places them at 10% and Infratest dimap at 12%.
Their candidate is Steffen Krach. And he has just entered the last week of the campaign with an additional problem.
The Prosecutor's Office investigates the SPD candidate
The Hannover Prosecutor's Office is investigating Krach for three matters related to his time as president of the Hannover region.
Two refer to a possible crime of accepting advantages and another to alleged irregularities around a tender, including the possible disclosure of trade secrets.
Krach rejects all the accusations and claims that they are unfounded.
The investigation began on September 3 and this week searches were carried out in Hannover and Berlin.
There is also an important demographic detail.
The fieldwork of Infratest ended on September 9, and the institute itself warns that the possible electoral effect of the investigations against Krach is barely reflected in its survey.
The ZDF poll extended until the 10th, but it also does not yet allow for a complete measurement of how voters will react in the last week.
The SPD, therefore, may go to the polls with more uncertainty than any other party.
CDU and SPD can no longer govern alone
There is one consequence that the two major polls consider practically clear.
The current CDU-SPD coalition would lose its majority.
ZDF adds 21% for the CDU and 10% for the social democrats.
ARD grants them 20% and 12%.
Very far from what is necessary to control Parliament.
The next Berlin administration will probably have to bring together three parties.
The two major possible coalitions
ZDF identifies two particularly realistic combinations.
The first would be Die Linke + The Greens + SPD.
The second, CDU + The Greens + SPD.
Both would have a majority with the current projection.
This paradoxically turns two parties that are losing votes into decisive pieces of the election.
The SPD can fall to 10% and still hold the key to the Government.
The Greens, with around 16%, can decide whether the mayor comes from the CDU or from Die Linke.
Berliners also do not know which Government they prefer
The city is practically split in half.
Infratest directly asked voters what they would prefer if they had to choose between a Government led by the CDU and another led by Die Linke.
Result: 42% versus 42%.
A geographical division also appears.
In West Berlin, a Government led by the CDU wins by 45% to 38%.
In the east, it is reversed: Die Linke obtains 47% and the CDU 38%.
The same fracture that runs through much of German politics remains visible more than three decades after reunification.
The left coalition is the least unpopular, but it does not excite either
The ZDF Politbarometer asked about Government combinations.
A Die Linke-Greens-SPD coalition receives a positive rating from 37% of voters.
55% consider it bad.
The alternative CDU-Greens-SPD is even less popular: only 22% consider it good and 64% reject it.
Therefore, the coalition with the most citizen support does not even reach 40%.
The next administration may arise from arithmetic necessity much more than from electoral enthusiasm.
There is not even a clearly favored candidate for mayor
Another rarity of these elections is the weakness of the candidates.
When ZDF asks who should become mayor-governor, Stefan Evers gets 25%.
Elif Eralp reaches 23%.
Werner Graf, from the Greens, stands at 9%.
18% do not want any of them and another 25% do not know them well enough or do not know how to respond.
Infratest obtains a practically identical picture: 23% believe that Eralp would be a good mayor and 22% say the same about Evers.
It does not seem, therefore, like a presidentialized election.
The vote is revolving around parties, housing, city functioning, and rejection or support for the different coalitions.
The data that could still change everything: one in four is undecided
ZDF finds that 28% of voters still do not have completely decided who they will vote for or even if they will go to the polls.
Infratest offers a slightly different measurement: 16% of those expressing a preference acknowledge that they could still change parties and another 16% shows no inclination towards any party or leans towards not voting.
It is enough to move a race separated by two points.
And there is another element.
The last major poll before the polls will arrive on Thursday, September 17, when ZDF will publish a new Politbarometer Extra.
That will probably be the most important picture before Sunday.
Berlin can give Germany a completely different result than Saxony-Anhalt
On September 6, AfD surpassed 44% in Saxony-Anhalt.
Two weeks later, the German capital can place Die Linke in first position.