When a Swede enters a polling station this Sunday, they do not necessarily have a single decision to make. Sweden is simultaneously holding elections for the Riksdag, its national Parliament, as well as municipal and regional elections. These are three different votes, with distinct ballots and responsibilities that affect very different aspects of daily life.
The national election concentrates almost all international attention because it will decide whether Magdalena Andersson returns to power or Ulf Kristersson retains the Government and opens the door of the Executive to the Sweden Democrats for the first time. But, while that battle is fought for the 349 seats in the Riksdag, 290 municipalities and regional governments are also being decided across the country.
Three ballots for three different governments
The Swedish Electoral Authority even uses different colors to avoid confusion.
The yellow ballot corresponds to the Riksdag, the Parliament that approves national laws and on which the formation of the Government ultimately depends.
The blue one is used to elect regional councils, responsible for areas as important as health care and a large part of public transport.
And the white one corresponds to the municipal elections, where issues such as schools, social services, urban planning, or care for the elderly are decided.
A single citizen can, therefore, vote for three different parties during the same visit to the polling station. Supporting the Social Democrats to govern Sweden does not require choosing them also for the municipality or for the region.
This detail allows the Swedish municipal map to have its own logic and explains why the national result tonight does not have to be repeated in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, or the rest of the cities.
Not even exactly the same people vote in the three elections
Here appears another peculiarity of the system.
To vote for the Riksdag, it is necessary to be a Swedish citizen. The Electoral Authority counted 8,046,725 people eligible to participate in the general elections.
In the municipal elections, however, the census rises to 8,401,213 people and in the regional elections to 8,351,744. In total, 8,628,119 citizens have the right to vote in at least one of the elections taking place this Sunday.
The difference is due to the fact that certain foreign residents in Sweden can also participate in local and regional elections. Citizens of the European Union, Iceland, and Norway can do so if they are registered as residents; for citizens of other countries or stateless persons, it is required to have been registered for at least three consecutive years.
In other words: there are people who today can decide who governs their city and their region, but not who occupies the 349 seats in the national Parliament.
Sweden has 21 regions, but there are only 20 regional elections
There is even a small exception that can mislead when following the results.
Sweden has 21 regions, but this Sunday only 20 separate regional elections are being held. Gotland does not have an independent regional vote and its regional functions fall under the municipal structure.
That is why the regional census is somewhat lower than the municipal one, and the Electoral Authority itself generates results tonight for a national election, 20 regional elections, and 290 municipal ones.
How are the elections going at this hour?
The polling stations remain open until 20:00 and Sweden does not publish a national participation advance during the day equivalent to that which exists in the Spanish elections.
There is, however, an exceptional piece of data before the closing: around 3.6 million voters have used early voting, a record figure. That represents about 45% of the national census, although it cannot be interpreted as a participation of 45%, because all the citizens who are voting this Sunday still need to be incorporated.
The national battle is very tight. Three of the latest polls compiled by Reuters placed the center-left bloc between 49.3% and 50.8%, equivalent to between 175 and 180 seats, compared to the 47.6%-49% of the right-wing bloc, which would obtain between 169 and 174 deputies.
But the range hides how quickly the election has narrowed. One of those polls left barely one seat of difference between both blocs.
A few weeks ago, the opposition's advantage seemed much more comfortable. Kristersson has been closing the gap during the final stretch and the voting has arrived on Sunday practically open.
The 4% of the liberals can decide who governs
One of the figures to look at tonight will not only be the result of the Social Democrats or the Sweden Democrats.
The Liberal Party needs to exceed 4% nationally to enter the Riksdag. If it falls below that threshold, Kristersson's bloc may lose the necessary seats to achieve a majority even if the rest of its parties perform well.
Reuters precisely places the performance of the liberals as one of the variables capable of deciding the final outcome.
If the right achieves a majority, Kristersson has already announced that he intends to formally incorporate the Sweden Democrats into the Executive. It would be the first time that the formation enters a Swedish national Government.
If the center-left wins, Andersson would have more options to return to the head of Government, but the negotiation could be much more complex due to the differences between social democrats, greens, the Left Party, and the Centre Party.
At 20:00 a night with three counts begins
When the polling stations close at 20:00, another peculiarity of these elections will begin: the three ballots are not counted simultaneously.
First, the votes for the Riksdag are counted. Then come the municipal elections, and finally, the regional ones.
The priority explains why we will relatively soon know an image of who can govern Sweden while many municipal and regional results will continue to arrive during the early morning.
The Electoral Authority expects to publish the first preliminary data of the general elections around 21:00. The first provisional estimate of seat distribution usually appears around 22:30, when it has already reported a sufficient number of districts.
From there, Sweden will actually have three overlapping election nights: who controls Parliament, who governs the cities, and what majorities will direct regional services.
The definitive results will not all arrive at once either. The Riksdag should be closed approximately a week after the elections, while the final counting of municipalities and regions may extend around two weeks.