The electoral advance does not change, for now, the favorite. The Target Point survey for El Debate published on October 11 places the PP first with 32% of the votes, the PSOE second with 25.9%, and Vox at 18.7%. The sum of popular and Vox reaches 50.7% and would maintain the absolute majority both with Podemos within the Frente Amplio and with both candidacies separately.
The novelty is in the limited socialist reaction and in the deputies that the left is playing with its lists. The PSOE slightly improves compared to the previous survey, but remains far from its result of 23J. Meanwhile, Frente Amplio and Podemos could significantly increase their representation if they ran together.
Compared to September: the PP rises more than the PSOE and Vox loses two tenths
The previous Target Point for El Debate, published on September 13, placed the PP at 31.5%, the PSOE at 25.6%, and Vox at 18.9%. Now the popular gain half a point, the socialists recover three tenths, and Vox loses two. The advantage of the PP over the PSOE goes from 5.9 to 6.1 points.
Sumar, now under the name of Frente Amplio, maintains 6.9%, while Podemos goes from 2.8% to 3.4%. The comparison of that space requires caution due to the change of candidacy.
There is a nuance that the results allow to specify: the sum of PSOE, Frente Amplio, and Podemos improves from 35.3% to 36.2%. PP and Vox go from 50.4% to 50.7%. Therefore, the distance between those two groups is reduced from 15.1 to 14.5 points. It remains very wide, but does not increase. These groupings do not include all the parties that could intervene in an investiture.
| Party or space | September 13, 2026 | October 11, 2026 | Change since September | 23J of 2023 | Change compared to 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.5% | 32.0% | +0.5 points | 33.1% | −1.1 points |
| PSOE | 25.6% | 25.9% | +0.3 points | 31.7% | −5.8 points |
| Vox | 18.9% | 18.7% | −0.2 points | 12.4% | +6.3 points |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio | 6.9% | 6.9% | No changes | 12.3%* | Not comparable separately* |
| Podemos | 2.8% | 3.4% | +0.6 points | Integrated into Sumar | Not comparable separately* |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio + Podemos | 9.7% | 10.3% | +0.6 points | 12.3%* | −2.0 points* |
| PP + Vox | 50.4% | 50.7% | +0.3 points | 45.4% | +5.3 points |
Sources: Target Point for El Debate, publications from September 13 and October 11, 2026; definitive results from 23J. Percentages rounded to one decimal; differences calculated with the figures shown. The sum rows are subtotals, not additional candidacies. * Podemos was part of Sumar in 2023. The joint comparison approximates the evolution of that space, but does not presuppose identical candidacies.
Against 23J: Vox concentrates the growth of the right
The deepest change appears when comparing with the elections of 2023. The PP, which obtained 137 deputies, now moves between 131 and 137 in the scenarios described by the publication. The PSOE drops from its 121 representatives to a range of 102 to 105: it would lose between 16 and 19.
Vox goes from 33 deputies from 23J to between 62 and 66. It would gain between 29 and 33 and could double its representation at the upper end of the estimate. The parliamentary growth of the right is therefore concentrated in the party of Santiago Abascal.
PP and Vox together obtained 170 seats in 2023. The interval of 193 to 203 that El Debate now reports encompasses different electoral configurations: it would imply between 23 and 33 more deputies than then. It is not a single range for an identical candidacy offer.
| Party or space | September 13, 2026 | October 11, 2026 | Change since September | 23J of 2023 | Change against 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.5% | 32.0% | +0.5 points | 33.1% | −1.1 points |
| PSOE | 25.6% | 25.9% | +0.3 points | 31.7% | −5.8 points |
| Vox | 18.9% | 18.7% | −0.2 points | 12.4% | +6.3 points |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio | 6.9% | 6.9% | No changes | 12.3%* | Not comparable separately* |
| Podemos | 2.8% | 3.4% | +0.6 points | Integrated in Sumar | Not comparable separately* |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio + Podemos | 9.7% | 10.3% | +0.6 points | 12.3%* | −2.0 points* |
| PP + Vox | 50.4% | 50.7% | +0.3 points | 45.4% | +5.3 points |
Sources: Target Point for El Debate, publications from September 13 and October 11, 2026; definitive results from 23J. Percentages rounded to one decimal; differences calculated with the figures shown. The sum rows are subtotals, not additional candidacies. * Podemos was part of Sumar in 2023. The joint comparison approximates the evolution of that space, but does not presuppose identical candidacies.
The Frente Amplio plays for eight or nine deputies with Podemos
Separately, Frente Amplio would obtain ten seats and Podemos two. Together they would reach 20 or 21, according to the alternative scenario published: between eight and nine additional representatives compared to the twelve of the separate candidacy.
The difference is relevant, although insufficient to leave PP and Vox below the 176 deputies of the absolute majority in the survey scenarios. It would also not return to that space the 31 seats that Sumar achieved in 2023, when Podemos was integrated into the candidacy.
The survey thus portrays two distinct problems for the left: the loss of support compared to 23J and the parliamentary performance of divided lists. Unity could alleviate the second, but the study does not allow us to consider the first resolved nor to anticipate how voters would react throughout the campaign.
| Configuration | Seats of the space | Difference compared to running separately |
|---|---|---|
| Frente Amplio and Podemos separated | 12: ten and two, respectively | Reference |
| Frente Amplio with Podemos | 20–21 | +8 to +9 |
Source: scenarios published by El Debate based on Target Point. The improvement corresponds to the joint representation of this space: it does not mean that all those deputies are subtracted from PP and Vox. It is not a calculation of Demócrata.