General elections survey: the recalculation of the CIS places the PSOE 1.9 points behind the PP and gives 194 seats to the PP and Vox

In Spain, the formation of a Government after general elections follows a very structured constitutional and parliamentary itinerary. It involves several successive phases: constitution of the new Cortes, opening of consultations by the King, proposal of a candidate, debate and investiture vote, and finally appointment of the president and ministers.

1. Situation after the elections: caretaker government

• On election day, a Government is not yet formed: the outgoing Executive becomes a caretaker government from the election call and remains so until the new Government takes office.
• A caretaker Government is limited to the ordinary handling of public affairs and must facilitate the process of forming the new Government and the transfer of powers.
• The previous Cortes are dissolved; only the Permanent Deputation acts for exceptional cases (validation of decree-laws and states of alarm, exception, and siege).

2. Proclamation of results and constitution of the Cortes

• After the general count and resolution of any appeals, the elected deputies and senators are officially proclaimed.
• The King convenes the constitutive session of the Congress and the Senate on the date set in the royal decree of convocation.
• In that session:
  • The elected members swear or promise the Constitution.
  • The members of the Board of the Congress (presidency, vice presidencies, and secretariats) and of the Senate are elected.
• With the Board of the Congress elected, the Chamber is fully constituted and can begin to exercise its functions.

3. Constitution of parliamentary groups

• Once the Chamber is constituted, parties and coalitions have a short deadline (usually a few working days) to communicate the formation of their parliamentary groups.
• The Board verifies that they meet the regulatory requirements (minimum number of seats and other conditions) and declares them constituted.
• Deputies who do not meet the requirements join the Mixed Group.
• The existence of groups is key because through them the debate is structured, speaking times are distributed, and support for investiture is negotiated.

4. King's consultations and candidate proposal

• Once the Congress is constituted, the King opens a round of consultations with representatives designated by the political groups with parliamentary presence.
• After these consultations, the King proposes a candidate for the Presidency of the Government, which he communicates to the Presidency of the Congress.
• The Presidency of the Congress sets the date for the investiture debate and formally convenes it.

5. Debate and investiture votes

• The debate takes place in the Plenary of the Congress:
  • The candidate presents their Government program and asks for the confidence of the Chamber.
  • Spokespersons of the parliamentary groups intervene and there may be replies and rejoinders.
• After the first part of the debate, the first vote is held:
  • To be invested, the candidate needs an absolute majority (half plus one of the members of the Congress).
• If not obtained, a second vote 48 hours later is held:
  • In this second vote, a simple majority (more yes than no votes) suffices.
• If still not elected, the King may, after new consultations, propose other successive candidates, repeating the debate and voting scheme.

6. Maximum deadline and possible repeat elections

• The Constitution sets a maximum period of two months from the first investiture vote.
• If in those two months no candidate obtains the confidence of the Congress:
  • The King, with the endorsement of the president of the Congress, dissolves both Chambers.
  • New general elections are automatically called.
  • Meanwhile, the Government continues in caretaker status.

7. Appointment of the president and formation of the Government

• If a candidate is invested (in the first or successive votes):
  • The King appoints them President of the Government by royal decree published in the Official State Gazette (BOE).
  • The new president swears or promises the office before the King.
• Then, the president proposes to the King the appointment of the ministers, also by royal decrees published in the BOE.
• Once appointed and after their oath or promise, the new Council of Ministers begins to exercise full functions, ending the previous Government.

In summary, the formation of the Government after general elections is a process in which the Congress occupies a central position: the key is not only who wins the elections, but who is able to articulate the necessary parliamentary majorities to successfully overcome the investiture procedure.

The President of the Government of Spain is the highest authority of the executive power and their position is mainly regulated in the 1978 Constitution, especially in articles 97, 98, 112 to 116, and in other provisions where they appear as a proposing body to the King. From these articles, their powers can be grouped into several major blocks.

1. Direction of Government action and general policy

• Directs the action of the Government (art. 97 CE): coordinates and guides the work of all ministers, sets priorities, distributes political competences among departments, and resolves internal conflicts.
• Directs internal and external policy (art. 97 CE): although the Government acts collegially, the president sets the main lines both in the internal agenda (reforms, sectoral policies, crisis management) and in Spain's international projection (relations with other States, EU, international organizations, etc.).
• Directs the civil and military Administration (art. 97 CE): heads the State's administrative organization and has the capacity to promote and coordinate ministries, agencies, and services of the General State Administration.
• Supreme command of the Armed Forces (art. 97 CE): holds the political and strategic leadership of defense, although the King is the Head of State and “supreme commander of the Armed Forces” in a symbolic and representative sense (art. 62 h CE). In practice, the planning and political direction of defense correspond to the president and the Government.

2. Internal organization of the Government

• Proposes the appointment and dismissal of ministers (art. 100 CE): the King appoints and removes ministers exclusively at the president's proposal. This allows the president to configure and reshape their government team (create or suppress portfolios, change holders, etc.).
• Political responsibility of the Government as a whole: although responsibility before the Cortes lies with the Government as a whole, the president assumes the political leadership of the cabinet and primarily answers before the Congress in debates and parliamentary controls.

3. Relations of confidence with the Congress of Deputies

• Vote of confidence (art. 112 CE): the president can submit a vote of confidence to the Congress on their program or a general policy declaration. If lost by a simple negative majority, they are obliged to resign.
• Responsibility regarding the motion of censure (art. 113 CE): although the initiative corresponds to the Congress, it is the president who can be replaced if a constructive motion of censure (with an alternative candidate) succeeds, which underlines their centrality in the Executive-Legislative relationship.

4. Dissolution of the Cortes and calling of elections

• Power to propose the dissolution of the Congress, the Senate, or the General Cortes (art. 115 CE): the King dissolves the Chambers and calls elections at the proposal of the president of the Government, which must be previously deliberated in the Council of Ministers. This power cannot be exercised during a state of exception or siege, nor when a motion of censure is underway.
• Through this power, the president plays a decisive role in setting the electoral calendar, within constitutional and legal limits.

5. States of alarm, exception, and siege

• Initiative and direction in states of crisis (art. 116 CE): the president leads the proposal and management of states of alarm, exception, and siege, which are declared by Government decree or parliamentary authorization, as the case may be. In practice, they lead the institutional response to serious emergencies (disasters, serious public order disturbances, etc.).

6. Other functions of proposal and promotion

• Proposal of consultative referendum (art. 92.2 CE): the King can call consultative referendums on political decisions of special importance, but only at the proposal of the president of the Government, previously authorized by the Congress.
• Other proposals to the King: in multiple formal acts of the Head of State (for example, appointments of high officials reserved to the King by the Constitution or laws), the president of the Government intervenes as a proposing or endorsing body, which grants them substantive power over these decisions.

Overall, the Constitution configures the president of the Government as the true center of gravity of the executive power, responsible for setting the country's political orientation, coordinating the Government, maintaining the confidence relationship with the Congress, and managing moments of institutional and electoral crisis.

In the Spanish general elections of July 23, 2023, the Congress of Deputies (350 seats) was configured as follows, according to the official results published and compiled by various media and the BOE:

• People's Party (PP): 137 seats
• Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 121 seats
• Vox: 33 seats
• Sumar: 31 seats
• Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC): 7 seats
• Junts per Catalunya (Junts): 7 seats
• Euskal Herria Bildu (EH Bildu): 6 seats
• Basque Nationalist Party (PNV): 5 seats
• Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG): 1 seat
• Canarian Coalition (CC): 1 seat
• Navarrese People's Union (UPN): 1 seat

The total sum is 350 deputies, which is the fixed number of seats in the Congress.

Majorities and main blocks

The absolute majority in the Congress is set at 176 seats. From this figure, the resulting arithmetic is better understood:

• The PP was the winning party in seats, with 137, but fell 39 seats short of the absolute majority.
• The block formed by PP + Vox + UPN sums 137 + 33 + 1 = 171 seats, five below the absolute majority.
• The left-wing block of PSOE + Sumar reaches 121 + 31 = 152 seats, clearly insufficient on its own to govern without additional support.

This distribution explains why, after 23-J, no ideological block had by itself the capacity to govern. The right and far-right were close but below 176 deputies, while the PSOE and Sumar alliance needed to weave agreements with several nationalist and independentist formations to reach a viable majority.

Role of nationalist and independent parties

The results of non-state-wide parties were decisive for the balance of forces:

• ERC: 7 seats
• Junts: 7 seats
• EH Bildu: 6 seats
• PNV: 5 seats
• BNG: 1 seat
• CC: 1 seat

Combined, these parties reach 27 seats. The information analyzed by the newspaper Demócrata about the legislature arising from 23-J highlights that the government coalition's options (PSOE and Sumar, with 147 seats if Podemos' split is also subsequently added) depend precisely on agreements with ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and CC, in addition to the five deputies that Podemos later maintained in the Mixed Group. Combined with the left-wing block, these supports allow surpassing the absolute majority threshold against the 171 deputies grouped by PP, Vox, and UPN.

Resulting parliamentary balance

From a strictly numerical point of view, the Congress resulting from the 2023 general elections presents a very tight balance:

• The right-wing opposition (PP, Vox, and UPN) represents a compact block of 171 seats, enough to block any initiative that does not manage to gather a slightly broader majority than the basic investiture arithmetic.
• The government space (PSOE and Sumar) needs, practically in every relevant vote, the support of most nationalist and independentist forces to reach or exceed the 176 votes necessary in organic laws and key issues.
• Smaller formations like BNG or Canarian Coalition, with 1 seat each, can be decisive in very close votes, tipping the balance toward one or the other block.

In summary, the 2023 results configured a very fragmented Congress of Deputies, with a clearly winning party in seats (PP) but without the capacity to articulate a government majority on its own, and with a progressive block that, despite starting with fewer seats, could build an alternative majority only through a complex network of agreements with several territorial parties.