General elections survey: PP and Vox would add up to 200 deputies and the PSOE would remain at 110, according to IMOP

As of October 9, 2026, there is no specific public communication about the exact phase of the next official nationwide electoral poll (CIS barometer with vote estimation) nor about a possible specific pre-electoral poll for the November 29 general elections. The latest published electoral study remains the CIS barometer released on September 14, and so far, no official date has been announced for the next one or for a pre-electoral poll for 29‑N.

1. What they are and who conducts the “official” polls

In Spain, the main official nationwide electoral poll is conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS). Its monthly barometers include voting intention and, during electoral periods, it may also carry out specific pre-electoral surveys (such as those made this year for Castilla y León or Andalusia, documented by Demócrata and the CIS's own website).

• Monthly CIS barometer: a general opinion study that almost always includes vote estimation.
• Specific pre-electoral polls: ad hoc surveys about particular elections, whose details are controlled by the Central Electoral Board (JEC) when conducted during electoral periods.

In the case of the November 29, 2026 general elections, the CIS could choose to limit itself to the monthly barometer with vote estimation or add a specific pre-electoral survey, but so far there is no public announcement of the latter.

2. What we know today: latest CIS and absence of public schedule

According to poll compilers and specialized press in demoscopy and electoral politics, as of today:

• The latest official electoral poll available is the CIS barometer published on September 14, with a sample of about 4,000 interviews and an estimation in which the PSOE appears as the leading force (around 31%) ahead of the PP, with Vox and Sumar at a considerable distance.
• The October barometer has not yet been released, nor is there a CIS note fixing a specific date and time for publication.
• No specific pre-electoral poll for 29‑N has been announced to the JEC, unlike what was done this year for the regional elections in Castilla y León and Andalusia (where the start of pre-electoral studies and their subsequent publication were formally communicated).

That is: the CIS appears to be following its usual barometer rhythm, but without a closed public schedule beyond the practice of recent months (a monthly barometer published towards the end of the month or early the next).

3. What “probable” phase the next poll might be in

Since the CIS has not published a methodological note or an announcement of “advance results” about a new barometer, it is not possible to state with certainty the exact phase of the next study. What recent experience does allow is to outline a reasonable scheme:

• The CIS usually conducts the fieldwork for its barometers in the first half of the month.
• The results are usually published between the end of that month and the first days of the next.

Applied to October, the most plausible (but unconfirmed) scenario is that the fieldwork for the next barometer is currently underway or about to start, which would then be processed and published, presumably, between late October and early November. I emphasize: this is an inference based on historical pattern, not an official date.

4. Legal limit: until when can polls be published?

The Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG), in its article 69.7, prohibits publishing, disseminating, or reproducing electoral polls by any means in the five calendar days prior to the vote.

For general elections on Sunday, November 29, this means that:

• The prohibited publication days would be from Tuesday, November 24 to Saturday, November 28, inclusive.
• The last working day to disseminate polls — including CIS barometers and pre-electoral polls — would be Monday, November 23.

Any November electoral barometer or possible 29‑N pre-electoral poll should therefore be made public before that date if it is to be legally disseminated.

5. Operational summary

• Known current phase: it can only be stated that the CIS has already published its September barometer and has not yet officially communicated the next barometer or a nationwide 29‑N pre-electoral poll.
• Next expected step: publication of a new barometer (probably October's) at the end of the month or early November, if the usual pattern is maintained.
• Maximum publication date: any official poll about the general elections must be disseminated, at the latest, by November 23.

Until the CIS or the JEC make a specific communication public, the “phase” of preparation and the exact publication date of the next official poll cannot be specified further.

According to the Statutes of the Partido Popular, the president is the highest authority of the party within their territorial scope (in the case of the national presidency, of the entire organization at the state level) and concentrates the main functions of political and organizational leadership. These competencies are set out, among others, in Article 47 of the current PP Statutes, available on the party's own website.

Highest representation of the party

• The president is the political and legal representative of the Partido Popular. This means they act on behalf of the party before institutions, other political forces, social entities, and third parties in general.
• They also exercise legal representation, being able to act in defense of the PP's interests legally within the framework set by the competent bodies.
• At the territorial level (national, regional, provincial, local), the president is the highest organizational authority of the party at that level, always subordinate to what the Statutes and the agreements of the corresponding congress provide.

Direction of internal bodies

• The president chairs the Board of Directors (at the state level, the National Board of Directors), which is the highest governing body of the party between congresses.
• They also chair the Executive Committee (National Executive Committee at the state level), which is the body responsible for daily political and organizational management.
• In these bodies, they have a in case of a tie, allowing them to resolve decisions when there is no clear majority.
• They are responsible for ordering debates and the functioning of these bodies, ensuring that the agreements adopted by majority are executed.

Execution of agreements and political line

• The president must take the necessary measures to fulfill and develop the agreements of the Congress (in the state case, the National Congress of the PP) and of the superior governing bodies.
• In practice, this translates into directing the general political line of the party, within the programmatic and statutory framework approved by the Congress.
• They have the responsibility to coordinate the political and organizational activity of the organization, ensuring coherence between speeches, electoral strategies, and the institutional action of the PP.
• They can promote political initiatives, campaigns, and positions, always respecting the decisions adopted by collegiate bodies and without invading their specific competencies.

Appointments and configuration of leadership

• The Statutes establish that the president can propose to the Executive Committee the appointment of:
  • The secretary general.
  • The deputy secretaries general or other deputy secretariats.
  • Coordinators and area secretaries.
  • The national treasurer, at the state level.
• These proposals must be ratified by the competent body (usually the Executive Committee itself), so the president directs the configuration of the team but does not unilaterally appoint it outside statutory channels.
• Through this power of proposal, the president designs the party's core leadership and distributes organizational and political coordination responsibilities.

Limits and internal control

• Although the president holds very broad functions, their powers are limited by the Statutes and by the competencies of:
  • The Congress of the party (which elects the president and sets the general line).
  • The Board of Directors, as the highest body between congresses.
  • The Executive Committee and other collegiate bodies provided for in the Statutes.
• The president must account to these bodies and adjust their actions to the agreements adopted by majority, as well as to the ethical code and internal rules approved by the party.
• The Statutes provide mechanisms of control and accountability over organizational positions, including the president, through the congresses themselves and the established guarantees bodies.

In summary, the Statutes of the Partido Popular configure the president as the central figure of the party: they are its main representative, chair and order the functioning of the governing bodies, promote and execute the agreements adopted in congress and collegiate bodies, and configure, through appointment proposals, the leadership team. All this, however, is exercised within a framework of internal checks and balances established by the Statutes themselves and by the ultimate control and decision-making capacity of the Congress and the Board of Directors.

In the general elections held in Spain in 2019, there were two calls (April 28 and November 10). Below is a summary of the results obtained by PSOE, PP, and Vox in each, in terms of votes, percentage, and seats in the Congress of Deputies, according to the official data published for each election.

General elections of April 28, 2019 (28‑A)

On April 28, 2019, the first general elections of the year were held. The Socialist Party was the most voted force, and the Popular Party suffered a sharp decline compared to 2016, while Vox entered the Congress significantly for the first time.

In this first election:

• The PSOE won the elections, with just under a third of the vote and 123 seats, far from the absolute majority (176), but clearly ahead of the other forces.
• The PP was the second force, with a result much lower than in the previous legislature: 66 deputies and around 16.7 % of the vote.
• Vox entered Congress for the first time with its own group and a relevant presence: it obtained 24 seats and just over 10 % of valid votes.

The resulting fragmented scenario and the difficulty in forming a stable majority led to repeat elections in November 2019.

General elections of November 10, 2019 (10‑N)

Due to the lack of an investiture agreement after 28‑A, new elections were called for November 10, 2019. In this second election of the year, the balance among the three parties you asked about was partially reconfigured, although the PSOE remained first in votes and seats.

Comparing with April:

• The PSOE won again and remained in a very similar support range (28.00 %), but lost around 760,000 votes and went from 123 to 120 seats, i.e., slightly decreased in seats.
• The PP made a clear recovery: it gained over 600,000 votes, improved its percentage to 20.82 %, and increased its representation from 66 to 89 deputies, partially correcting the drop suffered in April.
• Vox was the party that grew the most proportionally compared to April: it gained almost one million votes, rose from 10.26 % to 15.09 %, and from 24 to 52 seats, becoming the third parliamentary force in number of deputies.

In summary, in 2019 the PSOE remained the winning party in both calls, the PP first suffered a sharp drop and then recovered part of the lost ground in November, and Vox went from having no relevant representation to consolidating as a central actor in Congress, with a very significant jump between 28‑A and 10‑N both in votes and seats.