The installation of new data centres in Spain would have a limited impact on the final electricity price, even if the renewable supply obligations that the Government is preparing are not approved. This is what a Wood Mackenzie report prepared for the business association Spain DC calculates, which estimates a 1.3% increase in 2030 if an additional 3 gigawatts (GW) of electricity consumption from these facilities are incorporated.
The study, dated 23 October and to which DEMÓCRATA has had access, calculates that the rise in demand would raise the wholesale electricity price by 5.6 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). However, by incorporating the other components of electricity supply, the increase in the average final price would be reduced to 1.5 euros per MWh, equivalent to 1.3%.
The proposal from the Ministry for the Ecological Transition requires these facilities to back up at least 80% of their consumption with renewable generation in each hour of the year, a condition questioned by operators in the sector.
The wholesale price would rise, but the effect on the bill would be smaller
The main conclusion of the aforementioned report is that the increase in electricity in the wholesale market is not equivalent to the rise that consumers would ultimately pay.
Wood Mackenzie calculates that, with 3 GW additional data centres in 2030, the wholesale price would reach 54.1 euros per MWh, compared with 48.5 euros foreseen in a scenario without that additional consumption. The difference is 5.6 euros.
However, the final price also incorporates other concepts, such as system balancing services, transmission and distribution charges, regulated fees, and the electricity tax.
According to the consultancy, some of these costs would decrease as the wholesale price rises, while others would be spread across a higher volume of electricity consumed.
In particular, the report calculates that the 5.6 euros in wholesale increase would be partially offset by a reduction of 4.2 euros per MWh in other system costs, before considering the electrical losses that affect the final price.
The incorporation of data centres would also increase by 8% the demand that helps to finance certain network charges and levies, which would allow part of the regulated costs to be distributed across higher consumption.
Electricity would be cheaper in 2030 than in 2026, according to the projections
The study also foresees a considerable reduction in the price of electricity over the next four years, regardless of whether new data centers are built.
In its simulations, the average retail price would move from 176.6 euros per MWh in 2026 to 116.9 euros in 2030 with an additional 3 GW of consumption from these facilities.
Without that increase in demand, the forecast for 2030 would be 115.4 euros per MWh.
Therefore, the data centers would slightly reduce the expected drop, but would not prevent the final price from falling by around one third compared with the level modeled for 2026.
The consultancy attributes this development to various factors, including the expected reduction in the price of gas, changes in the operating costs of the electricity system, and the decrease in certain regulated items.
What would happen if 4 GW of data centers were installed
Wood Mackenzie has also calculated the effect of a deployment larger than that foreseen in its central scenario.
If the new demand reached 4 GW in 2030, the increase in the wholesale price would be 7.9 euros per MWh compared with the scenario without additional data centers.
Instead, the increase in the average retail price would rise to 2.7 euros per MWh, equivalent to 2.3%.
The report thus confirms that higher electricity consumption would gradually make supply more expensive, although it estimates an effect on the final price lower than that observed in the wholesale market.