Banco Sabadell has moderately cut its projections on net interest income for fiscal year 2026, although it maintains a positive view for next year. This was indicated by the chief executive officer, Marc Armengol, and the chief financial officer, Sergio Palavecino, in a conference with analysts held this Thursday on the occasion of the presentation of its quarterly results.
In the latest forecast update, presented in July, the entity anticipated an increase of more than 1% in the interest margin and a mid-single-digit increase in commissions. Now, the bank places growth in the interest margin at around 1% and lowers commissions growth to approximately 4%.
Nevertheless, the entity has underlined that it has "greater visibility" on the evolution of costs through the end of the year. This greater control, together with a favorable comparison base versus the previous fiscal year, has made it possible to revise upward its efficiency forecasts: the bank now estimates that costs will increase by 2%, compared with the previous estimate of somewhat below 3%.
These changes do not alter the return on tangible capital (RoTE) objectives, which remain at 14.5% for 2026 and 16% for 2027. Nor is the guidance on the cost of risk for this year modified, which remains set at 40 basis points.
Sabadell closed the first nine months of 2026 with net profit of 1,297 million euros, 13% more than in the same period of the previous year. In that period, total income (gross margin) rose by 1%, to 3,777 million, while net interest income (interest margin) fell by 0.6%, to 2,694 million.
Armengol reminded analysts that in 2025 the bank posted an "exceptionally strong" third quarter, followed by an "unusually weak" fourth quarter. For this reason, despite the accumulated decline through September, the entity continues to trust that it will close the year with growth in the interest margin.
For his part, the chief financial officer indicated that the client margin will increase both in the fourth quarter and in 2027. In any case, he pointed out that the maximum potential of the interest margin will be reached next year, due to liabilities repricing more quickly than assets, although the effect of interest rates will be favorable in absolute terms.
"Some higher interest rates, in short, are positive on a net basis because we have more assets that reprice than liabilities that do (...). But in the short term, we have more liabilities that reprice," explained Sergio Palavecino. The entity expects to achieve an interest margin close to 3.9 billion in 2027.
Looking ahead, the bank does not anticipate relevant problems derived from the current level of rates. According to Armengol, the risk of a lack of economic growth is not materializing for now. The other major focus of attention, the possible impact on credit quality, is also not seen as an immediate threat, given the reduced level of debt in the Spanish economy, especially in households and companies, in recent years.