Pedro Sánchez enters a period of reflection again. The rejection of the two housing decrees in Congress has opened a new question about the future of the legislature and has placed the president before a decision in which different interests converge both inside and outside the PSOE.
In public, Moncloa maintains that no decision has been made. Sánchez has given himself the weekend to assess the scenario and listen to reactions before deciding. In private, however, there are socialist leaders and members of the Government who believe that the parliamentary defeat could become the moment to go to the polls and, above all, that the Executive must take advantage of the mobilization that exists on the street around housing. This position is reflected in several reports published this Friday.
At the same time, there are other political and institutional voices that do not consider an electoral advance inevitable and who advocate keeping the legislature open. And a third space, formed by advisors and strategists, analyzes the consequences of an immediate call before Sánchez makes a decision.
The question that arises now is what will weigh more in that reflection: the difficulty of maintaining a parliamentary majority, the absence of budgets, the pressure from socialist leaders, the mobilization for housing, or the possibility of turning this issue into the axis of a potential electoral campaign.
Two rejected decrees and a defeat with political consequences
Congress has rejected this Friday the two royal decree-laws on housing approved by the Government this week.
The first, aimed at protecting the social function of housing and expanding the supply of affordable housing, was rejected by 178 votes against 172. The second, regarding the stability of rental contracts for habitual housing, fell by 184 votes against 166. PP, Vox, and Junts voted against.
Junts had demanded that the Government withdraw the texts and open a new negotiation. Sánchez decided, however, to keep them on the agenda despite knowing that he did not have enough votes.
The defeat acquires a greater political dimension because the decrees had been converted by the Executive into a response to the housing crisis and, in particular, to the problem of evictions. The proposed measures included the extension of protection against evictions, extraordinary extensions of contracts, regulation of seasonal rentals and rooms, and new tax incentives linked to affordable housing.
The parliamentary debate took place while mobilizations for housing were spreading across different cities and the encampment at Puerta del Sol had become one of the focal points of the protest.
The PSOE sector that wants to take advantage of the street
That scenario is precisely what some socialist leaders believe Sánchez should take advantage of.
Even before the vote, PSOE and Government leaders suggested that if PP, Vox, and Junts overturned the decrees, the left could go to the polls with housing as one of the main issues of the campaign. The reasoning conveyed by these sources is that parliamentary rejection would allow presenting the vote as a confrontation between the measures promoted by the Government and the position of the parties that have rejected them.
In that interpretation, housing would displace other issues that have so far conditioned the legislature and would allow the PSOE to focus the electoral debate on one of the problems that is most present on the street.
There are socialist leaders who have expressed this explicitly. The president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, has defended the call for elections. And other territorial voices consulted by national media have argued that if the decrees fell, "there is no other choice" but to go to the polls.
Not all socialists share this position. There lies one of the keys to Sánchez's period of reflection.
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The other voices: resist until 2027
Against the sector that sees in the mobilization for housing an opportunity to go to the polls, other positions within the political and institutional environment of the Government prefer not to hasten a call.
The thesis of those who advocate continuing is that a parliamentary defeat does not legally compel the dissolution of the Cortes and that there is still room to negotiate new initiatives, rebuild agreements, and keep the legislature open.
This is joined by the position of advisors and strategists who consider that a decision of this caliber requires evaluating not only the result of the vote but also the scenario that would open up afterward.
Sánchez raises the tone in Congress
Sánchez's own speech during the Plenary has contributed to placing housing at the center of political confrontation.
The president asked PP, Vox, and Junts to choose between being "with the social majority or with the speculators" and assured that his Government would not take "a step back" on housing matters. He also urged the deputies to be "brave" and "consistent" in the face of a situation he described as an emergency.
Sánchez defended the decrees as "ambitious," "necessary," "reasonable," and "balanced" measures and warned that their rejection would cause "immense damage."
The president ended his speech with a particularly forceful phrase directed at the groups that would vote against: "History will judge you sooner than you think and with more force than you imagine."
This tone has reinforced the reading of those within the PSOE who believe that the Executive has turned housing into the main ground of political confrontation and that, after the defeat, it could maintain this axis if it ultimately decides to go to the polls.
Feijóo sees an electoral excuse
Alberto Núñez Feijóo interprets the day from the opposite extreme. For the leader of the PP, Sánchez has not brought the decrees to Congress solely because he is concerned about housing. He believes that the president has constructed a political narrative that could serve as an excuse to bring forward the elections.
The PP maintains that Sánchez has used the Plenary to shift the responsibility for a problem that the Government has not managed to resolve onto the opposition. The popular parliamentary spokesperson, Ester Muñoz, even defined the vote as a "covert vote of confidence" and demanded that the president call elections if he does not have a majority to govern.
Feijóo's accusation goes further: he believes that the president is trying to construct an electoral framework in which housing appears as a problem caused or worsened by the opposition and in which the PSOE can present itself to the public as the party that has tried to respond to it.
Feijóo has also extended this criticism to other crises of the legislature, including the blackout and the railway accident in Adamuz, episodes in which the PP has demanded accountability from the Government. In the view of the popular party, Sánchez would be trying to shift the political responsibility for problems whose management corresponds to the Executive onto his adversaries.
Feijóo's plan for housing: more supply and less taxes
Against the decrees that Congress has just rejected, Feijóo counters with a policy based on increasing the supply of housing and reducing the tax burden, especially for young people.
The PP aims to build one million homes and mobilize available land to accelerate construction. His plan includes a new Land Law, collaboration between administrations, greater funding for autonomous communities and municipalities that facilitate housing, reduction of bureaucracy, and application of positive administrative silence to expedite licenses.
In fiscal matters, the popular plan includes a reduction of VAT from 10% to 4% for young people buying new homes, bonuses in personal income tax (IRPF), and a so-called "Young Home Fund." Feijóo has also proposed public guarantees that could reach 95% or 100% of the financing and tax reductions of up to 60% in certain cases.
The PP argues that the fundamental problem is the insufficiency of supply and that intervention measures on rent can further reduce the number of available homes. Therefore, their proposal combines construction, land, legal security, and fiscal measures.
Feijóo has estimated the existing deficit at around 700,000 homes and has proposed covering a deficit of one million houses during the next legislature. The PP also links its housing strategy to tax reduction, administrative streamlining, and legal security for property owners.
The absence of Budgets adds pressure
Housing is not the only problem that Sánchez will have to assess.
The Government has also not yet presented in Congress the project of General State Budgets for 2027. The accounts remain extended and the Executive has not managed to register new accounts within the expected timeframe.
The Government did approve in June the order to begin the preparation of the 2027 Budgets, but that procedure does not equate to presenting the bill before the Cortes.
For the socialist leaders who defend the elections, the combination of the defeat of the decrees and the absence of new accounts reinforces the difficulty of maintaining a legislature in which each initiative needs to negotiate parliamentary support.
On November 29, if Sánchez takes the step
While the president reflects, the electoral calendar is already calculated.
If Sánchez decided to dissolve the Cortes immediately, November 29 would be the first possible date to hold the general elections. The legislation establishes a period of 54 days between the call and the election day.
In that case, the decree would have to be processed on Monday, October 5, and published in the BOE on Tuesday, October 6. That is the calendar that would open if the president finally opts for the call.
For now, there is no call. Moncloa insists that Sánchez has given himself the weekend to reflect and that there is no closed decision.
Sánchez now has the whole weekend to decide what weight to give to each of those positions. And, on Monday the uncertainty may be cleared: if the president opts to resist until 2027, he will have to rebuild a parliamentary majority that has just failed him in two votes; if he decides to dissolve the Cortes, housing - the issue that the Government has placed at the center of the debate - will also be one of the main arguments he will have to present to the citizens.