The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have reached the Trend, a Togolese-flagged vessel, for attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. The incident occurs as maritime traffic continues to be well below its usual levels. Only four raw material ships crossed Hormuz on Thursday, compared to an average of 16 during the previous ten days, according to preliminary data from Kpler collected by Reuters. Three entered the Persian Gulf and one exited.
The new escalation of tension in the area coincides with the open negotiation by the Government to decide what will happen with the economic shield approved to cushion the rise in energy prices. A good part of its measures ends on the next September 30.
The Government opens the door to maintaining aid
The Executive met on Thursday with social agents to analyze the economic and social impact of the war and address the continuity of support for families and businesses.
The meeting was chaired by the first vice president and minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, and included the participation of the ministries of Labor, Finance, and Inclusion, along with representatives from CEOE, Cepyme, UGT, and CCOO.
Economy confirmed that the Government will work on the measures of the Response Plan to continue supporting families and businesses in the face of rising prices. However, it has not clarified whether it will fully extend the current package, whether it will modify its amounts, or whether it will concentrate aid on certain households and sectors.
The decision must be made before the end of the current month. If it requires modifying taxes or extending aid regulated by law, the Executive would have to approve a new royal decree-law, which would come into effect after being published in the BOE and would need to be validated later by Congress.
Fuel reductions
One of the main decisions affects fuel taxes. Royal Decree-Law 18/2026 established a staggered reduction of the Hydrocarbons Tax for September, conditioned on the year-on-year evolution of prices.
The mechanism allowed for an increase in the tax reduction for diesel after its price exceeded the threshold set in the regulation. In the case of gasoline, the discount is smaller because its year-on-year increase did not reach that level.
This regulation only covers until September 30. The Government can extend the current system, modify its thresholds, or replace it with more selective aid. For now, it has not communicated what the chosen formula will be.
Professional transport aid
The aid for road transport also expires. The decree includes support for vehicle owners entitled to a partial refund of the Hydrocarbons Tax for professional diesel.
The package reserves 275 million euros for this aid and reaches various segments of transport, including goods, passengers, taxis, and driver transport vehicles that meet the stipulated conditions.
Its continuity is among the issues that the Government will have to resolve, especially if the restrictions in Ormuz keep fuel costs high.
Support for farmers and fishermen
The shield extended until September 30 the extraordinary aid to cover the diesel consumed by agricultural producers. Its amount can reach 70% of the difference between the average weekly price and the price recorded before the war, with a limit of 20 cents per liter.
To finance it, the Government approved a credit supplement of 55 million euros. The decree allocated another 165 million to compensate for the increase in fertilizer costs.
Fishing vessel owners have a similar mechanism. The aid covers up to 70% of the difference in fuel price, also with a maximum of 20 cents per liter, and has ten million additional.
Agriculture and fishing are, therefore, two other areas in which the Executive can extend protection if it considers that the circumstances that justified the shield persist. The agricultural associations have already announced mobilizations over the price of diesel, with which they will pressure the Government for the extension of the aid.
Reductions in the electricity and gas bill
The shield allowed for a reduced VAT of 10% to be applied to electricity, natural gas, briquettes, pellets, and firewood during certain months, as long as the year-on-year increase in their prices exceeded 15%.
In electricity, the reduction applies to contracts with a power of up to 10 kilowatts and to certain vulnerable consumers covered by the social bonus. The decree also stipulates that the Special Tax on Electricity will decrease from 5.1127% to 0.5% if the established threshold is activated.
These tax measures are designed to automatically respond to intense increases in energy products, but the regulated coverage for September ends at the end of the month. Maintaining it in October would require a new decision from the Government.
The protection of employment linked to the aid
Companies that receive direct aid from the shield cannot dismiss for reasons related to the crisis that is intended to be combated. The prohibition extends to dismissals due to force majeure and for economic, technical, organizational, or productive reasons until September 30.
Non-compliance requires the return of the aid and determines that the dismissal is null. The same protection applies to the end of activity periods and to the lack of calling for fixed discontinuous workers.
An extension of the business aid would force the Government to decide whether to also extend these labor conditions.
Ormuz raises the energy risk again
The decree from June had anticipated the gradual withdrawal of the shield as energy markets stabilized. It also included safeguards to recover the intensity of some measures if prices rose sharply again.
The deterioration of maritime routes now questions that stabilization forecast. The decrease in traffic in Ormuz is compounded by the risk over the Bab el Mandeb strait, the main alternative for transporting oil from the Gulf while navigation through Iranian waters remains restricted.